Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19873
 
3 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, 'Yes' on Minnesota Marriage Amendment Now in Jeopardy; Obama Steady Atop Romney; Klobuchar Re-Elected:

In an election for President of the United States today, 10/15/12, Barack Obama carries Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 50% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Obama's 10-point advantage today is identical to his 50% to 40% advantage in a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, 09/10/12.

In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills 58% to 30%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Klobuchar is up 3 points, Bills is down 4 points. Klobuchar had led by 21 points, now leads by 28 points.

Support for an amendment to Minnesota's constitution to define marriage as a union of one man and one woman has eroded. The ballot measure is now running effectively even, 47% for "Yes," 46% for "No," and for the first time in SurveyUSA polling, in danger of defeat. 5 weeks ago, Yes led No by 7 points. In earlier SurveyUSA polling, where a summary of the ballot language was used instead of the actual ballot language, Yes had led by as many as 15 points.

* 5 weeks ago, women supported the measure by 5 points, now oppose the measure by 6 points, a swing of 11 points to "No."
* 5 weeks ago, Independent voters supported the measure by 1 point, now oppose the measure by 10 points, a swing of 11 points to "No."
* 5 weeks ago, moderates opposed the measure by 9 points, now oppose the measure by 20 points, a swing of 11 points to "No."
* 5 weeks ago, middle-income voters had supported the measure by 10 points, now oppose the measure by 4 points, a swing of 14 points to "No."

Support for a ballot measure that would require Minnesota voters to present a photo I.D. in order to vote is also eroding. 5 weeks ago, the measure led by 31 points, today leads by 13 points, 53% to 40%. Support for the measure has decreased among women from 29 points to 9 points. Opposition to the measure has increased among Democrats from 14 points to 33 points. Voters with a 4-year college degree had supported the measure by 24 points, now support by just 2 points. In Southern MN, support has eroded from 42 points to 6 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of them, 640 were registered to vote in the state of Minnesota. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 550 were likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
550 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Mitt Romney (R)40%43%37%34%40%40%46%38%42%29%43%89%4%45%86%31%2%47%38%39%35%39%43%38%39%49%42%
Barack Obama (D)50%47%52%49%48%53%49%48%52%52%49%6%93%42%10%59%92%46%53%50%56%51%47%53%40%46%49%
Other4%5%2%5%6%1%2%6%2%7%3%0%1%9%2%5%3%4%4%3%4%3%4%2%11%3%3%
Undecided6%5%8%12%5%6%3%8%5%12%5%5%2%5%3%5%3%3%5%9%5%8%6%7%11%2%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%22%28%31%19%50%50%23%77%27%37%30%28%47%18%16%39%45%26%40%35%60%13%13%14%
 
 
Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?
550 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Kurt Bills (R)30%35%26%32%34%28%26%33%27%26%32%71%3%31%69%21%1%35%28%31%25%31%32%28%35%35%31%
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)58%56%60%44%55%65%68%50%66%54%59%22%92%55%23%67%92%53%60%59%60%57%59%60%58%51%57%
Other5%4%5%10%2%4%3%6%4%5%4%3%3%8%4%5%3%9%4%3%8%4%2%4%2%6%5%
Undecided7%5%9%14%9%3%3%11%3%16%5%4%3%6%4%7%3%4%9%7%7%8%7%8%4%8%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%22%28%31%19%50%50%23%77%27%37%30%28%47%18%16%39%45%26%40%35%60%13%13%14%
 
 
Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?
550 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Health Care29%21%37%26%24%30%40%25%34%29%29%24%34%25%25%27%40%35%30%26%37%30%22%27%28%32%37%
Job Creation30%40%20%33%23%33%28%28%31%27%30%37%25%33%34%33%20%29%30%30%29%30%31%35%22%25%20%
Taxes14%15%13%9%14%18%12%11%16%8%15%16%14%12%16%14%9%11%15%13%6%18%14%13%15%16%13%
Gas Prices4%4%5%6%5%4%2%6%3%3%5%6%5%2%6%5%1%7%5%3%5%3%6%4%5%5%7%
War On Terrorism4%4%4%5%4%2%5%5%3%4%4%4%2%5%2%5%2%4%3%4%5%3%3%3%7%2%8%
Education7%5%8%7%13%4%2%10%3%8%6%0%12%5%0%5%17%4%5%9%7%5%9%7%9%10%2%
Something Else10%9%10%12%12%8%7%12%7%18%7%10%7%14%13%8%11%5%9%12%8%7%13%10%12%9%8%
Not Sure3%2%4%2%4%2%4%3%3%3%3%3%2%4%3%3%1%5%2%3%3%4%2%3%3%1%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%22%28%31%19%50%50%23%77%27%37%30%28%47%18%16%39%45%26%40%35%60%13%13%14%
 
 
Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"
550 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Yes47%52%43%45%46%46%55%45%49%46%48%82%27%43%87%37%16%60%51%39%54%45%44%44%47%56%55%
No46%42%49%46%46%51%39%46%46%44%47%15%66%53%9%57%80%33%42%55%36%49%52%48%50%42%39%
Undecided7%5%8%9%8%4%6%8%5%10%6%2%7%5%4%6%4%7%7%6%10%6%4%8%4%3%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%22%28%31%19%50%50%23%77%27%37%30%28%47%18%16%39%45%26%40%35%60%13%13%14%
 
 
Also on the ballot is a measure about voter identification. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?"
550 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Yes53%57%50%52%59%50%52%56%51%49%55%81%30%58%80%53%15%60%57%48%51%54%54%53%50%54%58%
No40%38%41%35%35%46%43%35%45%38%40%14%63%36%15%40%80%32%36%46%40%38%42%39%44%43%34%
Undecided7%5%9%13%7%4%4%10%4%13%5%5%6%5%5%7%5%9%7%6%9%8%4%8%6%3%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%22%28%31%19%50%50%23%77%27%37%30%28%47%18%16%39%45%26%40%35%60%13%13%14%
 
 
If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a DFL candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?
550 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Republican36%38%34%37%35%35%39%36%36%30%38%90%2%32%81%26%2%40%35%36%31%34%41%32%44%46%35%
DFL45%43%47%38%43%50%47%41%49%42%46%4%92%32%8%52%86%38%48%45%48%45%44%46%40%40%49%
Independence Party8%9%7%11%9%4%7%10%5%9%7%2%1%20%4%12%4%10%7%7%7%7%8%9%6%3%7%
Other3%4%2%2%4%2%2%3%2%1%3%0%2%7%2%3%1%3%3%2%4%2%1%3%3%4%2%
Undecided9%7%11%12%9%9%5%11%7%18%6%4%3%9%5%7%8%9%7%10%9%12%5%10%6%8%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%22%28%31%19%50%50%23%77%27%37%30%28%47%18%16%39%45%26%40%35%60%13%13%14%