Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19873

3 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, 'Yes' on Minnesota Marriage Amendment Now in Jeopardy; Obama Steady Atop Romney; Klobuchar Re-Elected:

In an election for President of the United States today, 10/15/12, Barack Obama carries Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 50% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Obama's 10-point advantage today is identical to his 50% to 40% advantage in a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, 09/10/12.

In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills 58% to 30%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Klobuchar is up 3 points, Bills is down 4 points. Klobuchar had led by 21 points, now leads by 28 points.

Support for an amendment to Minnesota's constitution to define marriage as a union of one man and one woman has eroded. The ballot measure is now running effectively even, 47% for "Yes," 46% for "No," and for the first time in SurveyUSA polling, in danger of defeat. 5 weeks ago, Yes led No by 7 points. In earlier SurveyUSA polling, where a summary of the ballot language was used instead of the actual ballot language, Yes had led by as many as 15 points.

* 5 weeks ago, women supported the measure by 5 points, now oppose the measure by 6 points, a swing of 11 points to "No."
* 5 weeks ago, Independent voters supported the measure by 1 point, now oppose the measure by 10 points, a swing of 11 points to "No."
* 5 weeks ago, moderates opposed the measure by 9 points, now oppose the measure by 20 points, a swing of 11 points to "No."
* 5 weeks ago, middle-income voters had supported the measure by 10 points, now oppose the measure by 4 points, a swing of 14 points to "No."

Support for a ballot measure that would require Minnesota voters to present a photo I.D. in order to vote is also eroding. 5 weeks ago, the measure led by 31 points, today leads by 13 points, 53% to 40%. Support for the measure has decreased among women from 29 points to 9 points. Opposition to the measure has increased among Democrats from 14 points to 33 points. Voters with a 4-year college degree had supported the measure by 24 points, now support by just 2 points. In Southern MN, support has eroded from 42 points to 6 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of them, 640 were registered to vote in the state of Minnesota. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 550 were likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

550 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Mitt Romney (R)	220	114	105	42	62	68	48	105	115	36	183	130	8	73	128	80	2	41	80	95	48	82	79	124	27	37	32
Barack Obama (D)	275	127	148	60	74	90	51	134	141	65	210	9	185	68	14	150	90	40	112	122	77	107	86	175	28	34	38
Other	20	13	6	6	10	2	2	15	4	9	11	0	3	15	3	13	3	3	9	7	6	5	7	7	7	2	2
Undecided	35	13	23	15	8	10	3	23	13	15	21	7	4	7	5	12	3	3	10	22	7	16	11	23	7	1	4
Total	550	267	283	123	154	169	104	277	273	125	425	146	200	163	150	256	98	87	210	245	138	210	183	329	70	74	76
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	49%	51%	22%	28%	31%	19%	50%	50%	23%	77%	27%	37%	30%	28%	47%	18%	16%	39%	45%	26%	40%	35%	60%	13%	13%	14%

Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?

550 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Kurt Bills (R)	166	93	73	39	53	47	27	92	74	32	134	103	5	50	104	55	1	30	58	76	34	66	58	92	25	26	23
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	319	148	171	54	85	110	71	138	181	67	252	33	183	90	35	171	90	46	125	144	83	120	108	197	41	38	44
Other	25	12	13	12	3	7	3	15	10	6	19	5	5	12	5	13	3	8	9	8	11	8	5	15	2	4	4
Undecided	40	14	26	18	13	6	3	31	9	19	20	5	6	10	6	17	3	3	18	18	10	17	12	26	3	6	5
Total	550	267	283	123	154	169	104	277	273	125	425	146	200	163	150	256	98	87	210	245	138	210	183	329	70	74	76
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	49%	51%	22%	28%	31%	19%	50%	50%	23%	77%	27%	37%	30%	28%	47%	18%	16%	39%	45%	26%	40%	35%	60%	13%	13%	14%

Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?

550 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Health Care	161	57	104	32	37	50	41	69	92	36	124	36	69	41	37	70	39	31	63	65	51	63	40	89	19	24	28
Job Creation	162	106	57	41	36	56	29	77	85	34	128	54	50	53	51	83	20	25	63	74	39	63	57	114	15	18	15
Taxes	75	39	36	11	21	30	12	32	43	10	65	23	27	19	24	36	9	10	32	31	8	37	26	42	11	12	10
Gas Prices	25	11	14	7	8	6	3	16	9	4	21	9	9	4	9	13	1	6	11	7	7	7	10	12	4	3	6
War On Terrorism	21	11	10	7	6	3	5	13	8	5	16	6	4	8	3	13	2	4	7	10	7	6	6	8	5	1	6
Education	37	14	23	8	19	7	2	28	9	10	27	0	24	7	0	14	16	3	11	23	9	10	17	22	6	7	2
Something Else	54	24	29	15	18	13	7	34	20	22	32	14	13	23	20	20	10	5	18	29	12	15	23	32	9	7	6
Not Sure	16	6	10	2	7	3	4	9	7	4	12	4	3	7	4	8	1	4	4	7	4	8	3	10	2	1	3
Total	550	267	283	123	154	169	104	277	273	125	425	146	200	163	150	256	98	87	210	245	138	210	183	329	70	74	76
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	49%	51%	22%	28%	31%	19%	50%	50%	23%	77%	27%	37%	30%	28%	47%	18%	16%	39%	45%	26%	40%	35%	60%	13%	13%	14%

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

550 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Yes	261	139	122	55	71	77	57	126	135	58	203	121	54	69	130	96	16	52	108	96	75	95	80	145	33	41	42
No	253	113	140	57	71	86	40	127	126	55	198	22	132	86	14	146	78	28	88	135	50	103	96	158	35	31	30
Undecided	36	14	21	11	12	6	6	23	12	12	24	3	13	7	6	14	4	6	14	14	13	13	8	26	3	2	5
Total	550	267	283	123	154	169	104	277	273	125	425	146	200	163	150	256	98	87	210	245	138	210	183	329	70	74	76
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	49%	51%	22%	28%	31%	19%	50%	50%	23%	77%	27%	37%	30%	28%	47%	18%	16%	39%	45%	26%	40%	35%	60%	13%	13%	14%

Also on the ballot is a measure about voter identification. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?"

550 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Yes	293	153	140	63	90	85	54	154	140	61	233	118	60	95	120	135	15	52	120	118	70	114	99	174	35	40	44
No	218	101	117	43	53	77	45	96	122	47	171	21	126	59	22	103	78	27	76	113	55	80	78	129	31	32	26
Undecided	38	12	25	16	10	7	5	27	11	17	21	7	13	9	8	18	5	8	14	14	13	16	7	26	4	2	6
Total	550	267	283	123	154	169	104	277	273	125	425	146	200	163	150	256	98	87	210	245	138	210	183	329	70	74	76
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	49%	51%	22%	28%	31%	19%	50%	50%	23%	77%	27%	37%	30%	28%	47%	18%	16%	39%	45%	26%	40%	35%	60%	13%	13%	14%

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a DFL candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?

550 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Republican	198	101	96	45	54	59	40	99	99	37	161	132	5	52	121	67	2	35	73	88	43	71	76	106	31	34	27
DFL	246	114	132	47	66	85	49	113	134	52	194	5	184	52	13	134	84	33	102	109	66	95	81	151	28	29	38
Independence Party	41	23	18	13	14	7	7	27	14	12	30	3	3	33	5	31	4	8	15	17	10	15	14	30	5	2	5
Other	15	10	5	3	6	4	2	9	6	2	13	0	3	11	3	7	1	2	7	5	6	4	3	9	2	3	1
Undecided	49	19	31	15	14	15	6	29	20	22	27	6	5	15	8	18	7	8	15	26	13	25	10	34	4	6	6
Total	550	267	283	123	154	169	104	277	273	125	425	146	200	163	150	256	98	87	210	245	138	210	183	329	70	74	76
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	49%	51%	22%	28%	31%	19%	50%	50%	23%	77%	27%	37%	30%	28%	47%	18%	16%	39%	45%	26%	40%	35%	60%	13%	13%	14%