Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14671
Independence Party Candidate May Influence Who Wins Slugfest in MN3, Where Madia and Paulsen Remain Tied: In an election today, 10/28/08, to fill the open US House seat in Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, Republican Erik Paulsen and DFL Party candidate Ashwin Madia battle Independence Party Candidate David Dillon for every vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Paulsen gets 45% today, Madia 44%. Effectively even. The movement from SurveyUSA's last poll, 3 weeks ago, may or may not be statistically significant: Madia is down 2. Paulsen is up 2. Dillon gets 9% today, from voters who are more likely to be Democrats and Liberals than Conservatives and Republicans. If Dillon's support erodes in the campaign's final hours, as sometimes happens to 3rd-Party candidates, this may benefit Madia. Conversely, the crosstabs reflect that Dillon's voters have unfavorable opinions of both Madia and Paulsen.

Filtering / Context: Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District forms a crescent around the western Minneapolis suburbs and is one of the most affluent in the state. Incumbent republican Jim Ramstad is not seeking a 10th term. George W. Bush received 51% in the district in 2004. 700 registered voters were interviewed 10/26/08 and 10/27/08 using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 643 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on election day. This contest should not be characterized by those who report these results as leaning either way. The contest is a jump ball at this hour.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Erik Paulsen? DFL candidate Ashwin Madia? Or some other candidate?
643 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of PaulsenOpinion Of MadiaBush Overall AppJob Performance Top Issue For Congress
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralFavorablUnfavoraNeutralApproveDisapproApproveDisapproEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisGasolineEducatioImmigrat
Erik Paulsen (R)45%49%41%44%49%42%42%47%42%46%******87%9%39%87%33%6%94%2%39%2%83%40%90%25%26%51%42%**20%23%95%******
Ashwin Madia (DFL)44%41%46%41%41%47%44%41%46%42%******8%79%43%7%52%81%5%82%44%97%2%41%5%62%67%37%47%**62%62%2%******
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%16%32%33%18%48%52%91%4%2%3%32%34%30%30%48%18%35%33%25%35%41%20%26%68%12%77%67%2%8%6%6%1%3%4%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.