Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17315
 
CA-11: Will 3rd Time Be Charm For GOP's Harmer, As He Tries to Take House Seat from Incumbent Democrat McNerney? In an election for US House of Representatives in California's 11th congressional district today, 10/12/10, Republican David Harmer edges incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney 48% to 42%, according to this latest exclusive KPIX-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Among men, Harmer leads by 20 points; among women, McNerney leads by 6 -- a 26-point gender gap. Harmer has a bubble of support among voters age 35 to 49; the candidates are effectively even among older voters. Harmer, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Congress in Utah's 2nd District in 1996 and in California's neighboring 10th Congressional District in a special election last year, takes 8 of 10 Republican votes. McNerney, who is seeking a third term, takes 8 of 10 Democratic votes. Independents break 5:3 for the Republican.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA 750 registered voters from California's 11th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/08/10 through 10/11/10 using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle. Of the registered voters, 624 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already cast a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before election day. Early voting began 10/04/10.
 
1If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican David Harmer? Democrat Jerry McNerney?
624 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo Opini< $50K> $50K
David Harmer (R)48%56%42%47%52%47%46%51%47%50%**52%34%46%49%84%12%50%81%38%10%88%9%50%25%43%50%
Jerry McNerney (D)42%36%48%43%38%46%42%39%45%40%**41%57%48%42%10%80%32%11%53%79%5%85%37%50%40%44%
David Christensen (AIP)4%5%4%6%4%2%6%5%4%5%**4%1%1%5%3%3%13%5%4%4%4%2%6%8%10%3%
Undecided5%3%6%4%5%5%5%5%5%5%**3%8%5%5%3%6%6%3%4%7%3%4%7%17%7%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%47%53%13%32%35%20%45%55%80%4%10%6%9%91%41%39%18%37%41%17%39%34%19%8%21%79%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.