Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20436
 
Gonzalez and Castaneda Toe-to-Toe in California 80th State Assembly District Special Election

6 weeks until votes are counted in the special election in California's 80th State Assembly District, Lorena Gonzales and Steve Castaneda run effectively even, 35% for Gonzalez, 32% for Castaneda, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV in San Diego.

* Gonzales has a Plus 10 Net Favorability Rating (28% of likely voters view her favorably, compared to 18% who view her unfavorably).
* Castaneda has a Plus 3 Net Favorability Rating (21% of likely voters view him favorably, compared to 18% who view him unfavorably).
* Outgoing Assemblyman Ben Hueso has a Plus 19 Net Favorability Rating (37% view him favorably compared to 18% who view him unfavorably).

* Gonzalez leads by 13 among Democrats, Castaneda leads by 15 among Republicans.
* Gonzalez has an advantage among middle-aged voters, age 35 to 64. Castaneda leads among seniors.
* Less affluent voters back Gonzalez. More affluent voters back Castaneda.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 935 registered voters 04/08/13 through 04/11/13, using Registration Based Sample (voter list sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 471 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/21/13 special election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (94% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (6% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
1If the special election for state assembly were today, who would you vote for? Democrat Steve Castaneda? Or Democrat Lorena Gonzalez?
471 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.6%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Steve Castaneda32%32%32%31%28%31%36%29%33%34%22%33%30%22%33%33%34%25%30%33%35%33%33%30%30%29%41%
Lorena Gonzalez35%33%36%33%36%40%30%35%34%32%43%40%26%30%35%18%47%32%24%37%43%44%31%36%40%33%33%
Undecided33%34%33%35%36%30%34%36%32%35%36%28%44%48%32%48%19%43%45%30%21%24%36%33%30%38%26%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%13%22%32%34%35%65%52%9%30%10%6%94%32%49%18%35%35%24%14%46%39%35%36%29%
 
 
2Is your opinion of Ben Hueso ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
471 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.6%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable37%36%37%34%38%36%37%37%37%32%33%46%37%48%36%28%44%30%29%36%44%50%33%34%38%31%39%
Unfavorable18%22%14%8%17%20%20%13%20%17%17%18%17%4%19%25%10%25%26%17%8%17%17%20%14%23%18%
Neutral28%26%29%23%28%30%27%26%29%32%33%22%19%16%28%31%26%29%29%32%23%21%30%28%29%28%26%
No Opinion18%16%20%35%17%14%16%24%15%19%17%13%26%32%17%16%20%16%16%15%25%12%20%18%19%19%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%13%22%32%34%35%65%52%9%30%10%6%94%32%49%18%35%35%24%14%46%39%35%36%29%
 
 
3Is your opinion of Steve Castaneda ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
471 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.6%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable21%21%20%18%14%22%25%15%24%23%22%19%15%36%20%21%22%19%22%18%23%27%21%19%22%23%18%
Unfavorable18%23%14%23%21%19%14%22%16%21%7%19%15%30%18%28%10%25%27%19%7%14%16%22%15%20%21%
Neutral39%35%42%32%43%36%41%39%39%37%47%39%39%28%39%32%45%34%31%43%43%37%40%37%43%36%39%
No Opinion22%20%24%27%21%23%20%23%22%19%23%24%31%6%23%19%24%22%20%20%27%23%23%21%20%21%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%13%22%32%34%35%65%52%9%30%10%6%94%32%49%18%35%35%24%14%46%39%35%36%29%
 
 
4Is your opinion of Lorena Gonzalez ...
471 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.6%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable28%29%27%22%29%35%24%26%29%25%38%31%26%40%27%10%42%25%17%30%40%34%27%28%31%28%27%
Unfavorable18%22%15%19%18%13%22%18%18%20%18%16%16%12%18%31%9%19%30%13%11%15%18%19%15%23%17%
Neutral30%30%29%24%33%32%27%29%30%31%30%29%22%30%29%29%28%37%30%34%22%29%30%28%33%27%27%
No Opinion24%19%29%36%20%20%26%26%23%24%14%23%36%18%25%30%22%18%23%23%28%22%25%24%21%22%29%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%13%22%32%34%35%65%52%9%30%10%6%94%32%49%18%35%35%24%14%46%39%35%36%29%