Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #5908
8 hours till polls open in the Runoff for Mayor of San Antonio, Phil Hardberger has 52% of the vote, Julian Castro has 47%, according to a final SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WOAI-TV. This outcome is within the poll's 4.0% Margin of Error. While a Hardberger victory is the more likely outcome, a narrow Castro win would not be inconsistent with these results. Hardberger is up 2% from an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago. Castro is unchanged at 47%. Castro defeated Hardberger in the 5/6/05 Primary, 42% to 30%. But: those in the primary who voted for 3rd-place finisher Carroll Schubert now support Hardberger 7:1 over Castro. Hardberger leads among older voters, Republicans, Independents, conservatives, college graduates and Whites. Castro leads among younger voters, Democrats, moderates, liberals, voters who didn't go to college, and non-whites. Whites back Hardberger 78% to 21%. Hispanics back Castro 69% to 29%. Hardberger leads by 25 points among voters age 65+. The older the electorate, the better for Hardberger. The younger the electorate, the better for Castro. Runoff will be decided by which candidate does better at getting his supporters to the polls, and whether Schubert supporters really like their 2nd choice, Hardberger, enough to turn-out and vote. *** Filtering: 2,400 City of San Antonio adults were interviewed 6/3/05 - 6/5/05. Of them, 2,002 were registered to vote. Of them, 632 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect "likely voters." Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.
1On Tuesday, voters in San Antonio will elect a Mayor in a runoff election. If the runoff for Mayor of San Antonio were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Julian Castro? Or Phil Hardberger?
632 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyEducationIdeologyVoted For San Antonio Mayor Previously
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+HispanicBlackWhiteAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependNot SureGrad SchCollege Some ColNo ColleConservaModerateLiberalNot SureDid Not CastroHardbergSchubertOther
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%16%27%32%25%47%6%45%2%36%43%20%1%25%22%29%23%36%45%18%2%22%34%25%17%2%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.