Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22734
 
Time-Lapse Photography Into the State of Florida 03/15/16 Republican Primary;
Cruz Moving Up, Rubio Trending Down, Trump Impervious & Still in the Lead:

8 days till votes are counted in the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States, Donald Trump appears to have an advantage over Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for TV station Bay News 9 in Tampa. But: a fluid electorate makes it difficult to freeze-frame the state of the race in a way that will "hold" until Election Day.

At this hour, it's Trump 42%, favorite-son Rubio 22%, Cruz 17%. But, there is inter-day play that is worth introspection. On the first day of interviewing (Friday 03/04/16, after the Thursday night Fox News "small hands" Republican Party Debate in Detroit), Ted Cruz had 13% of the primary vote. On the last day of interviewing (Sunday 03/06/16, after the results of the Saturday caucuses in Kansas, Maine and Kentucky were known, and after the results of the Louisiana primary were known), Cruz had 21% of the primary vote, a specific upward trajectory. On the first day of interviewing, Rubio had 25% of the primary vote, compared to 20% on the last day of interviewing. A downward trajectory, though less pronounced. Trump polled at 43%, 41%, and 44% over the 3 days of interviewing for the survey --- no particular trajectory, and no evidence that Trump has yet been wounded by relentless anti-Trump advertising in the Sunshine State.

Results of tomorrow's 03/08/16 Michigan and Mississippi primaries will color Florida results, one week later. If Cruz has an unexpectedly strong showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, and is able to maintain 24 or 48 hours of uninterrupted media spotlight, he may carry that momentum into Florida and eclipse Rubio. If Rubio has a comparatively weak showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, he may lose critical support back home. Should Trump's support collapse in Michigan and Mississippi, that may dampen Trump's perceived inevitability, and cut into his Florida base, making the outcome far closer than it herein appears. In the end, however, whether Trump wins the Florida Primary by 3 votes or 300,000 votes, and whether Cruz or Rubio finishes in 2nd place, Trump wins the same number of convention delegates, 99, and Cruz and Rubio both get zero. Trump has 84 more delegates than Cruz at this hour. Trump has 233 more delegates than Rubio.

For now, among Republican primary voters who tell SurveyUSA that they have already returned a ballot, it's Trump 47%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 10%. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polling places close, it's Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 19%.

Rubio leads Trump 38% to 27% among Cubans who plan to vote in the Republican Primary. Trump leads Rubio by 15 points among non-Cuban Hispanics. Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue, Trump leads Rubio by 28 points. Among voters who say that national security is the most important issue, Trump edges Rubio, 33% to 30%. Trump polls above 40% in 4 regions of the state --- NW FL, NE FL, Central FL, and SW FL. Trump is at 37% in SE FL, with Rubio on his heels at 31%. Trump leads Cruz by 10 points among voters who are "very conservative." Trump leads Cruz by 34 points among voters who are "moderate." Rubio's support is strong among GOP primary voters who do not own a gun and who are not members of the Tea Party. John Kasich, who polls at 10% in a GOP primary "today," does best among women, seniors, pro-choice voters and moderates.

In a Democratic primary today, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1. Support for Sanders declined from 33% on the first day of interviewing to 25% on the last day of interviewing.

Looking ahead to the 11/08/16 general election, Florida's critical 29 electoral college votes are very much in play. Clinton today runs effectively even with any of the top 3 Republicans. At this hour, it's:

* Trump 45%, Clinton 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 61% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.
* Clinton 45%, Rubio 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 58% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.
* Clinton 46%, Cruz 44%. Clinton gets 79% of the black vote, 64% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.

In the 08/30/16 Republican primary for U.S. Senator from Florida, "other" and "undecided" today combine for 50% of the likely vote --- so all named candidates have significant opportunity to move up or down. Today, it's David Jolly at 18%, Ron DeSantis at 11%, Carlos Lopez-Cantera at 9%, Todd Wilcox at 7%, Ilya Katz at 4%. Among those Republicans likely to vote in the Senate primary, 56% say they would definitely vote for Ben Carson, should Carson enter the race.

In the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for U.S. Senator, "other" and "undecided" combine for 46% of the vote, leaving plenty of room for all 3 named candidates --- Patrick Murphy who polls at 27%, Alan Grayson who polls at 16%, and Pam Keith who polls at 11%.

Like U.S. Senate races in other states in 2016, Florida's Senate fight will have national significance, and will likely see millions of outside dollars poured into it, as both Democrats and Republicans seek to control the Upper Chamber in the next Congress so as to steer the confirmation hearings for Justice Antonin Scalia's replacement. The open Florida Senate seat is currently held by Republican Rubio, who is not seeking re-election.

Floridians today 3:1 favor Amendment 2, which is on the 11/08/16 general election ballot and which would legalize medical marijuana under certain conditions. Registered voters split on whether all forms of marijuana, including recreational, should be legalized, 45% in favor, 41% opposed. By 5:3, voters support legalizing casino gambling in Florida.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,450 state of Florida adults 03/04/16 through 03/06/16. Of the adults, 2,204 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,961 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election, 937 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican presidential primary, 823 were determined to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic presidential primary, 724 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Republican primary for US Senator, and 592 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for US Senator. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device. Most of the interviews for this survey were completed before the results of the Puerto Rico Republican Primary were known; Rubio won decisively there. All interviews for this survey were completed before the 03/06/16 CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Flint MI. Mitt Romney won the Florida Republican Presidential Primary in 2012 with 46% of the vote. Democrat Barack Obama carried Florida in the 2008 and 2012 general elections. Republican George W Bush carried Florida in 2004 and was awarded Florida by the Supreme Court of the United States in 2000.
 
1If you were filling out your Republican Presidential primary ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Donald Trump? Ted Cruz? Marco Rubio? John Kasich? Or one of the other candidates?
937 Likely & Actual GOP Presidential Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Donald Trump42%44%41%40%41%44%42%41%43%27%48%42%****47%41%43%41%44%48%43%34%********39%47%41%****51%39%41%42%50%45%37%39%47%46%40%52%41%41%48%44%39%40%43%43%43%47%41%37%47%59%33%41%
Ted Cruz17%18%16%19%17%16%17%18%16%14%5%16%****10%19%13%19%21%19%13%17%********29%16%7%****25%14%25%11%11%13%23%21%11%16%14%15%20%15%14%17%18%14%18%23%19%17%16%14%14%23%18%8%
Marco Rubio22%22%23%24%22%21%23%23%22%38%33%23%****29%20%25%20%20%24%22%20%********23%22%22%****13%25%21%24%18%23%24%26%17%20%27%20%19%26%20%24%23%24%22%18%18%19%22%31%19%12%30%28%
John Kasich10%7%13%3%9%11%13%7%12%12%6%11%****6%12%8%15%10%6%12%14%********5%8%20%****5%12%7%13%9%11%10%7%16%10%11%4%8%13%9%8%13%6%12%7%11%11%11%10%12%3%11%11%
Other3%3%3%4%4%3%2%4%3%8%1%3%****6%2%4%3%3%2%2%6%********2%2%4%****2%4%2%5%5%4%2%2%5%2%4%4%4%2%4%2%3%5%2%1%1%3%4%5%3%1%5%5%
Undecided5%6%4%9%7%4%3%8%4%1%8%5%****2%6%7%3%3%1%7%9%********3%6%6%****3%5%4%6%6%4%5%5%4%6%3%5%8%3%5%4%5%10%3%8%8%3%7%3%6%3%3%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual GOP Presidential Primary Voters100%52%48%13%21%34%32%33%67%7%7%92%4%4%24%76%47%29%24%43%32%19%3%1%1%0%30%36%28%2%1%21%70%41%54%22%33%44%56%40%50%42%14%34%52%23%37%40%27%73%9%10%35%23%24%41%16%26%7%
 
2If you were filling out your Democratic presidential primary ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Or Bernie Sanders?
823 Likely & Actual Democratic Presidential Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Hillary Clinton61%57%64%50%60%63%69%56%66%**70%57%72%61%69%58%58%66%63%******27%50%67%70%59%62%63%62%52%**62%74%59%49%63%72%62%61%59%63%63%60%61%62%55%70%55%65%60%60%59%55%66%68%56%70%55%
Bernie Sanders30%33%28%45%27%30%23%34%26%**30%35%17%36%29%31%33%28%25%******57%40%27%24%33%23%28%34%36%**30%17%33%44%29%17%29%31%27%31%29%29%31%30%37%21%35%27%30%26%35%36%25%23%33%25%35%
Undecided9%10%8%5%13%7%9%10%8%**0%9%11%3%2%11%8%6%13%******16%10%6%6%8%15%8%4%12%**8%9%8%7%8%11%9%8%13%6%8%10%8%8%8%9%9%8%10%14%5%9%9%8%11%5%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Presidential Primary Voters100%43%57%19%28%27%25%48%52%4%12%66%26%7%24%76%55%26%19%2%1%3%5%13%39%36%5%12%33%30%15%3%92%19%77%32%36%32%24%72%29%68%13%34%53%28%40%32%42%58%6%10%26%20%37%40%10%15%14%
 
3If the August 30th Republican primary for United States Senate were today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Ron DeSantis? David Jolly? Carlos Lopez-Cantera? Todd Wilcox? Carlos Beruff? Ilya Katz? Or another candidate?
724 Likely August GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Ron DeSantis11%12%10%6%8%9%17%7%13%7%9%11%****15%10%10%11%13%13%12%8%********13%11%9%****16%10%14%10%10%12%11%13%9%11%12%11%13%10%11%11%11%10%11%3%25%13%7%10%13%12%10%2%
David Jolly18%20%14%21%21%15%17%21%16%8%13%17%****22%16%15%18%21%20%16%14%********17%19%16%****21%17%14%21%25%15%15%15%21%19%12%16%17%17%17%17%17%13%19%10%12%14%38%8%16%24%21%12%
Carlos Lopez-Cantera9%11%6%7%15%8%6%12%7%50%22%9%****9%9%8%12%6%7%10%9%********8%8%12%****8%9%5%12%9%10%7%9%7%6%12%10%6%10%7%8%10%13%7%9%5%3%4%25%11%3%8%15%
Todd Wilcox7%8%7%13%6%8%5%9%7%6%10%7%****4%8%5%8%11%8%5%8%********8%6%8%****9%7%9%6%5%9%7%9%5%9%7%8%10%6%9%7%7%5%8%10%6%9%9%3%6%9%8%12%
Carlos Beruff1%2%1%2%3%1%1%3%1%4%3%1%****1%2%1%2%1%1%2%0%********1%2%2%****2%1%1%2%0%2%2%1%1%2%0%1%1%2%0%0%3%1%2%1%2%2%1%1%1%1%2%0%
Ilya Katz4%3%4%4%3%4%4%4%4%0%0%4%****4%4%3%3%7%3%3%5%********4%4%3%****3%4%5%3%3%5%3%3%4%3%5%5%4%4%9%2%3%3%4%3%4%3%2%6%3%2%5%4%
Other16%14%19%5%4%23%20%4%22%15%12%16%****18%16%10%25%18%14%18%19%********14%15%18%****17%18%17%16%14%19%16%13%23%18%14%22%14%17%18%16%16%3%21%18%7%19%10%22%19%13%12%21%
Undecided34%30%38%42%39%33%29%40%31%11%31%35%****27%36%47%23%24%33%34%37%********35%35%32%****25%34%36%31%34%28%38%35%30%32%36%27%36%34%29%38%32%53%28%47%40%36%30%26%31%36%34%33%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely August GOP Primary Voters100%53%47%10%19%36%34%30%70%8%6%94%3%3%26%73%44%30%25%46%32%17%3%1%1%0%33%37%24%3%1%22%71%42%54%21%32%47%58%39%52%40%13%33%54%21%38%41%24%76%10%10%36%22%22%41%17%26%7%
 
4There has been speculation that Ben Carson may enter the race for US Senate as he ends his campaign for the presidency. If Ben Carson runs in the Republican Primary for United States Senate, will you definitely vote for him? Definitely vote for someone else? Or is it too soon to say?
724 Likely August GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Definitely Vote For Ben Carson56%52%60%61%47%54%61%52%57%57%51%56%****54%57%52%58%59%61%57%50%********63%65%37%****73%51%67%48%50%59%57%66%41%58%56%55%62%52%51%62%54%50%58%42%56%55%62%56%58%64%58%43%
Definitely Vote For Someone Else15%18%12%17%14%17%13%15%15%23%19%15%****15%15%16%16%13%11%19%13%********8%11%27%****9%18%8%21%15%17%14%9%24%18%13%13%12%17%14%13%17%19%14%10%13%17%12%19%15%8%13%23%
Too Soon To Say29%31%27%22%39%29%26%33%27%20%31%29%****30%28%32%26%28%28%25%37%********29%24%36%****18%31%25%31%35%24%29%24%35%25%31%31%26%30%34%25%29%31%28%48%31%28%26%25%28%27%29%35%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely August GOP Primary Voters100%53%47%10%19%36%34%30%70%8%6%94%3%3%26%73%44%30%25%46%32%17%3%1%1%0%33%37%24%3%1%22%71%42%54%21%32%47%58%39%52%40%13%33%54%21%38%41%24%76%10%10%36%22%22%41%17%26%7%
 
5If the August 30th Democratic primary for United States Senate were today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Alan Grayson? Patrick Murphy? Pam Keith? Or another candidate?
592 Likely August Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Alan Grayson16%18%14%20%10%18%18%13%18%**16%17%12%18%20%14%17%16%14%********17%19%16%22%11%13%16%24%**16%10%18%21%15%12%14%16%17%15%12%18%16%16%15%17%16%16%7%20%28%12%11%18%13%9%16%
Patrick Murphy27%29%25%28%25%25%30%26%27%**39%27%27%27%33%26%26%27%29%********22%27%27%9%27%31%26%30%**27%24%28%20%30%29%23%28%24%28%29%24%28%21%27%31%25%28%17%14%22%27%36%25%32%41%23%
Pam Keith11%12%11%14%13%11%9%13%10%**10%12%10%11%12%11%10%18%7%********10%13%11%11%25%10%12%6%**10%19%10%10%17%8%15%11%10%13%16%17%8%13%12%11%9%13%12%18%11%13%9%13%16%7%12%
Other15%16%14%5%15%18%16%12%17%**10%14%18%17%16%13%6%20%28%********8%10%17%16%19%16%11%15%**15%17%14%9%12%22%17%14%22%11%14%10%18%13%11%19%4%21%20%12%13%9%19%20%15%11%7%
Undecided31%25%35%32%38%28%26%36%27%**25%30%33%28%20%35%41%19%22%********42%31%29%42%20%30%36%25%**31%30%31%41%25%29%31%31%27%32%29%32%30%36%35%22%46%22%44%36%26%39%26%25%24%31%41%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely August Democratic Primary Voters100%45%55%13%29%30%27%42%58%5%13%68%24%8%27%70%50%29%22%2%1%3%5%11%37%41%6%12%31%29%18%3%93%19%77%29%34%36%24%72%29%68%10%34%56%27%40%34%37%63%7%11%26%20%37%42%8%14%15%
 
6If the November election for President were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
1961 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Donald Trump (R)45%49%41%31%35%51%52%34%52%**27%50%14%34%46%45%40%49%49%83%72%63%38%13%11%5%73%69%39%8%9%81%38%57%38%41%45%49%61%34%57%35%54%49%40%43%47%43%35%49%52%46%51%46%35%46%66%53%28%
Hillary Clinton (D)44%41%46%51%53%38%38%52%38%**61%37%82%53%46%44%46%41%43%5%16%17%40%75%83%93%12%20%49%81%87%8%51%29%51%47%44%40%25%57%32%54%35%40%49%45%41%46%49%41%38%39%37%44%54%43%29%32%58%
Undecided12%10%13%18%12%11%10%14%10%**12%13%3%13%8%11%14%11%8%12%12%19%23%12%6%3%16%11%12%11%3%11%11%13%11%12%11%12%14%9%12%11%12%11%11%12%12%10%16%10%10%15%13%10%11%10%5%15%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%48%52%13%25%32%29%39%61%5%9%82%12%6%23%73%49%29%23%21%15%14%9%9%17%15%18%24%31%15%8%12%81%29%66%28%34%37%40%56%40%55%15%34%51%27%38%35%32%68%8%10%32%21%29%41%14%19%10%
 
7OK, what if it were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton?
1961 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Ted Cruz (R)44%48%41%43%39%45%48%40%47%**28%49%17%33%43%46%43%43%48%82%70%64%41%12%8%6%81%71%32%7%9%82%37%65%35%37%42%51%66%29%57%32%50%47%40%44%46%42%40%46%55%46%49%47%34%42%60%58%33%
Hillary Clinton (D)46%43%49%47%53%45%40%51%43%**64%40%79%55%48%46%48%44%44%8%18%19%42%76%88%92%11%22%53%85%88%11%53%27%55%52%48%40%23%62%34%57%39%43%51%47%44%49%50%44%38%42%40%44%56%48%30%34%60%
Undecided10%9%10%10%8%10%12%9%11%**8%11%4%11%8%8%9%13%8%10%12%17%17%12%4%2%8%8%14%8%3%7%10%8%10%11%10%9%10%9%9%10%11%10%9%9%10%10%10%10%6%12%11%9%10%10%10%9%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%48%52%13%25%32%29%39%61%5%9%82%12%6%23%73%49%29%23%21%15%14%9%9%17%15%18%24%31%15%8%12%81%29%66%28%34%37%40%56%40%55%15%34%51%27%38%35%32%68%8%10%32%21%29%41%14%19%10%
 
8What if it were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton?
1961 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Marco Rubio (R)44%48%41%42%39%46%48%40%47%**37%50%16%29%44%45%43%44%46%80%73%65%40%13%9%4%74%70%35%11%8%73%39%63%36%36%43%52%64%30%56%34%50%45%42%43%46%43%40%46%53%50%48%45%36%43%56%59%28%
Hillary Clinton (D)45%41%48%45%52%45%40%49%42%**58%39%82%55%48%46%46%44%44%9%17%16%38%73%87%94%15%22%50%82%89%15%51%29%53%50%47%39%25%60%34%56%39%43%49%47%43%47%48%44%37%40%39%43%57%46%32%32%60%
Undecided11%11%10%13%9%10%12%11%11%**5%12%2%16%8%9%11%12%10%11%10%19%22%14%5%2%11%8%15%7%4%12%10%9%11%13%10%9%11%9%10%10%11%12%9%10%11%10%11%10%10%10%14%12%7%10%12%9%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%48%52%13%25%32%29%39%61%5%9%82%12%6%23%73%49%29%23%21%15%14%9%9%17%15%18%24%31%15%8%12%81%29%66%28%34%37%40%56%40%55%15%34%51%27%38%35%32%68%8%10%32%21%29%41%14%19%10%
 
9What's the biggest issue facing the 2016 candidates for President? The economy? Immigration? Education? National Security? Health Care? Climate Change? Or something else?
1961 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Economy41%44%38%42%42%43%38%42%40%**50%40%49%39%41%41%41%42%40%40%46%38%39%37%43%42%37%40%44%43%41%41%42%39%42%39%41%43%41%41%42%41%35%39%44%37%40%45%43%40%43%42%42%36%43%100%0%0%0%
Immigration14%16%12%14%13%13%15%13%14%**20%13%17%22%15%13%13%14%15%18%14%20%14%11%11%7%17%19%13%7%5%25%11%16%13%14%17%11%17%11%14%13%21%14%11%15%14%12%13%14%17%8%13%13%17%0%100%0%0%
Education4%4%3%8%5%2%3%6%3%**5%3%5%8%4%5%4%3%5%1%2%4%5%6%7%5%2%3%3%6%9%3%4%3%5%4%4%3%3%4%3%5%3%4%4%3%4%4%5%4%2%7%3%5%3%0%0%0%0%
National Security19%15%23%14%19%19%23%17%21%**7%21%17%4%21%21%19%20%19%26%24%25%12%10%13%16%27%26%16%12%11%20%20%23%18%15%20%23%24%17%22%18%22%19%19%20%19%20%18%20%17%21%18%23%18%0%0%100%0%
Health Care10%10%11%9%12%11%8%11%10%**7%11%6%12%9%11%12%9%6%6%8%4%11%18%14%15%7%5%13%12%17%4%11%8%11%13%10%9%7%12%10%11%10%11%9%12%12%8%13%9%10%9%11%8%11%0%0%0%100%
Climate Change4%4%4%8%3%4%3%5%3%**4%4%1%5%4%3%4%3%5%1%1%3%6%10%4%8%1%2%3%10%12%1%5%2%5%7%4%2%1%6%3%5%1%4%5%4%4%4%4%4%6%6%3%6%2%0%0%0%0%
Other5%5%4%3%4%5%5%4%5%**6%5%3%5%3%4%4%4%7%5%2%5%9%4%6%3%7%3%4%6%4%6%5%5%4%6%3%5%5%5%4%5%4%6%4%5%5%4%3%5%5%3%5%6%3%0%0%0%0%
Not Sure3%2%4%2%1%3%5%1%4%**1%3%1%4%3%3%2%4%3%3%3%2%5%4%2%2%2%2%3%4%1%2%3%3%3%2%2%4%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%4%3%2%2%3%0%3%3%3%3%0%0%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%48%52%13%25%32%29%39%61%5%9%82%12%6%23%73%49%29%23%21%15%14%9%9%17%15%18%24%31%15%8%12%81%29%66%28%34%37%40%56%40%55%15%34%51%27%38%35%32%68%8%10%32%21%29%41%14%19%10%
 
10Also on the ballot in November will be Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana for individuals with certain medical conditions. On Amendment 2, ... are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
1961 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Yes61%63%59%72%67%63%49%68%56%**59%60%68%61%55%61%65%55%59%36%55%58%74%81%71%74%36%52%68%76%90%44%64%49%67%75%64%48%45%73%61%64%59%63%61%61%63%61%70%56%63%64%60%59%61%60%59%53%67%
No21%23%20%11%19%23%27%16%25%**22%23%10%19%27%21%17%28%22%44%26%20%10%7%14%10%44%30%13%9%7%39%19%31%17%13%18%32%35%12%21%21%24%19%22%19%20%23%15%25%20%19%25%20%20%21%26%28%19%
Not Certain18%14%21%17%14%14%25%15%19%**19%17%22%20%18%18%17%17%20%20%20%22%16%13%14%16%20%18%19%16%3%17%17%20%17%13%18%20%20%15%18%15%16%18%17%19%17%15%15%19%18%17%16%21%18%19%15%19%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%48%52%13%25%32%29%39%61%5%9%82%12%6%23%73%49%29%23%21%15%14%9%9%17%15%18%24%31%15%8%12%81%29%66%28%34%37%40%56%40%55%15%34%51%27%38%35%32%68%8%10%32%21%29%41%14%19%10%
 
11Would you support or oppose a state constitutional amendment to legalize all forms of marijuana?
2204 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Support45%48%43%61%55%48%24%58%37%42%43%46%47%41%38%46%54%35%37%23%38%43%51%65%59%56%24%34%51%60%79%30%48%34%51%61%48%32%30%58%47%48%46%48%44%45%50%44%60%37%52%54%45%47%41%44%41%36%57%
Oppose41%40%42%25%29%41%62%27%51%54%41%42%32%41%48%41%31%54%49%69%50%44%31%21%27%26%68%56%32%24%14%60%39%55%35%28%37%55%59%29%41%40%41%37%44%39%39%44%25%50%38%32%43%40%44%41%51%52%33%
Not Sure14%11%16%14%16%11%14%15%12%4%15%12%20%19%13%13%15%11%14%8%12%13%18%15%15%19%8%10%18%16%7%10%13%12%14%11%15%14%11%13%12%13%12%15%12%16%11%13%14%13%10%14%13%13%15%15%9%12%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%17%25%31%27%42%58%5%10%80%13%7%22%71%53%26%21%20%15%14%10%9%17%15%17%23%33%15%7%11%80%29%66%29%35%37%40%55%39%56%16%35%49%29%38%34%36%64%8%10%32%21%30%41%14%19%10%
 
12Do you support or oppose legalizing casino gaming in Florida?
2204 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+CubanNon-CubaRaceAlready Voted?InterviewedParty AffiliationIdeologyTea PartyEvangelicalAttend ChurchAbortionGun OwnerEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionIssue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesHispanicWhiteBlackAsian / YesNo03/0403/0503/06Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibYesNoYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaEconomyImmigratNationalHealth C
Support53%60%46%59%60%49%46%60%48%52%53%54%49%45%47%55%58%45%48%50%55%53%51%57%54%50%41%54%58%49%61%49%53%44%57%61%60%40%45%60%57%52%52%55%53%48%56%55%62%47%53%53%53%54%51%56%56%49%60%
Oppose34%30%37%22%22%41%43%22%42%33%33%34%33%34%39%33%28%43%37%41%33%36%28%27%30%35%49%35%27%36%27%40%33%45%29%24%28%45%44%26%32%34%33%30%35%33%33%33%22%40%34%33%34%31%35%30%35%38%29%
Not Sure14%10%17%19%18%10%11%18%11%15%14%12%18%21%14%13%14%12%15%9%12%10%21%16%16%16%10%11%15%15%12%11%13%12%14%15%12%14%11%14%11%14%14%15%12%19%11%12%16%13%13%14%13%15%13%13%10%13%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%17%25%31%27%42%58%5%10%80%13%7%22%71%53%26%21%20%15%14%10%9%17%15%17%23%33%15%7%11%80%29%66%29%35%37%40%55%39%56%16%35%49%29%38%34%36%64%8%10%32%21%30%41%14%19%10%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.