Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22734

Time-Lapse Photography Into the State of Florida 03/15/16 Republican Primary; Cruz Moving Up, Rubio Trending Down, Trump Impervious & Still in the Lead: 8 days till votes are counted in the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States, Donald Trump appears to have an advantage over Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for TV station Bay News 9 in Tampa. But: a fluid electorate makes it difficult to freeze-frame the state of the race in a way that will "hold" until Election Day. At this hour, it's Trump 42%, favorite-son Rubio 22%, Cruz 17%. But, there is inter-day play that is worth introspection. On the first day of interviewing (Friday 03/04/16, after the Thursday night Fox News "small hands" Republican Party Debate in Detroit), Ted Cruz had 13% of the primary vote. On the last day of interviewing (Sunday 03/06/16, after the results of the Saturday caucuses in Kansas, Maine and Kentucky were known, and after the results of the Louisiana primary were known), Cruz had 21% of the primary vote, a specific upward trajectory. On the first day of interviewing, Rubio had 25% of the primary vote, compared to 20% on the last day of interviewing. A downward trajectory, though less pronounced. Trump polled at 43%, 41%, and 44% over the 3 days of interviewing for the survey --- no particular trajectory, and no evidence that Trump has yet been wounded by relentless anti-Trump advertising in the Sunshine State. Results of tomorrow's 03/08/16 Michigan and Mississippi primaries will color Florida results, one week later. If Cruz has an unexpectedly strong showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, and is able to maintain 24 or 48 hours of uninterrupted media spotlight, he may carry that momentum into Florida and eclipse Rubio. If Rubio has a comparatively weak showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, he may lose critical support back home. Should Trump's support collapse in Michigan and Mississippi, that may dampen Trump's perceived inevitability, and cut into his Florida base, making the outcome far closer than it herein appears. In the end, however, whether Trump wins the Florida Primary by 3 votes or 300,000 votes, and whether Cruz or Rubio finishes in 2nd place, Trump wins the same number of convention delegates, 99, and Cruz and Rubio both get zero. Trump has 84 more delegates than Cruz at this hour. Trump has 233 more delegates than Rubio. For now, among Republican primary voters who tell SurveyUSA that they have already returned a ballot, it's Trump 47%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 10%. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polling places close, it's Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 19%. Rubio leads Trump 38% to 27% among Cubans who plan to vote in the Republican Primary. Trump leads Rubio by 15 points among non-Cuban Hispanics. Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue, Trump leads Rubio by 28 points. Among voters who say that national security is the most important issue, Trump edges Rubio, 33% to 30%. Trump polls above 40% in 4 regions of the state --- NW FL, NE FL, Central FL, and SW FL. Trump is at 37% in SE FL, with Rubio on his heels at 31%. Trump leads Cruz by 10 points among voters who are "very conservative." Trump leads Cruz by 34 points among voters who are "moderate." Rubio's support is strong among GOP primary voters who do not own a gun and who are not members of the Tea Party. John Kasich, who polls at 10% in a GOP primary "today," does best among women, seniors, pro-choice voters and moderates. In a Democratic primary today, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1. Support for Sanders declined from 33% on the first day of interviewing to 25% on the last day of interviewing. Looking ahead to the 11/08/16 general election, Florida's critical 29 electoral college votes are very much in play. Clinton today runs effectively even with any of the top 3 Republicans. At this hour, it's: * Trump 45%, Clinton 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 61% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote. * Clinton 45%, Rubio 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 58% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote. * Clinton 46%, Cruz 44%. Clinton gets 79% of the black vote, 64% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote. In the 08/30/16 Republican primary for U.S. Senator from Florida, "other" and "undecided" today combine for 50% of the likely vote --- so all named candidates have significant opportunity to move up or down. Today, it's David Jolly at 18%, Ron DeSantis at 11%, Carlos Lopez-Cantera at 9%, Todd Wilcox at 7%, Ilya Katz at 4%. Among those Republicans likely to vote in the Senate primary, 56% say they would definitely vote for Ben Carson, should Carson enter the race. In the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for U.S. Senator, "other" and "undecided" combine for 46% of the vote, leaving plenty of room for all 3 named candidates --- Patrick Murphy who polls at 27%, Alan Grayson who polls at 16%, and Pam Keith who polls at 11%. Like U.S. Senate races in other states in 2016, Florida's Senate fight will have national significance, and will likely see millions of outside dollars poured into it, as both Democrats and Republicans seek to control the Upper Chamber in the next Congress so as to steer the confirmation hearings for Justice Antonin Scalia's replacement. The open Florida Senate seat is currently held by Republican Rubio, who is not seeking re-election. Floridians today 3:1 favor Amendment 2, which is on the 11/08/16 general election ballot and which would legalize medical marijuana under certain conditions. Registered voters split on whether all forms of marijuana, including recreational, should be legalized, 45% in favor, 41% opposed. By 5:3, voters support legalizing casino gambling in Florida. Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,450 state of Florida adults 03/04/16 through 03/06/16. Of the adults, 2,204 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,961 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election, 937 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican presidential primary, 823 were determined to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic presidential primary, 724 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Republican primary for US Senator, and 592 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for US Senator. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device. Most of the interviews for this survey were completed before the results of the Puerto Rico Republican Primary were known; Rubio won decisively there. All interviews for this survey were completed before the 03/06/16 CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Flint MI. Mitt Romney won the Florida Republican Presidential Primary in 2012 with 46% of the vote. Democrat Barack Obama carried Florida in the 2008 and 2012 general elections. Republican George W Bush carried Florida in 2004 and was awarded Florida by the Supreme Court of the United States in 2000.

1	If you were filling out your Republican Presidential primary ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Donald Trump? Ted Cruz? Marco Rubio? John Kasich? Or one of the other candidates?

937 Likely & Actual GOP Presidential Primary Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Donald Trump	398	212	187	48	80	143	128	128	271	19	29	367	13	19	108	291	188	112	98	193	131	60	6	1	5	2	110	159	106	7	4	99	260	156	212	104	139	151	204	171	212	155	67	128	194	96	147	140	101	297	35	40	154	88	81	172	83	75	25
Ted Cruz	157	87	71	23	32	52	50	55	102	10	3	141	10	6	24	134	59	51	47	75	41	31	9	1	1	0	81	54	19	1	0	48	93	95	57	23	39	94	111	40	74	56	19	63	73	28	58	64	37	121	18	18	55	34	32	51	32	40	5
Marco Rubio	209	106	103	29	42	69	69	71	138	26	20	197	3	9	65	144	111	54	44	97	68	35	5	2	0	1	65	74	57	4	4	26	164	79	122	38	72	98	137	62	90	104	26	60	121	40	80	82	61	148	14	17	61	47	69	68	17	69	17
John Kasich	97	36	61	4	18	35	40	22	75	9	3	95	2	0	13	84	34	40	23	23	38	26	6	4	0	0	13	26	53	3	2	10	82	28	65	19	34	41	35	58	46	44	6	25	62	19	26	46	15	82	6	11	35	23	23	43	4	25	6
Other	30	15	14	4	8	10	7	13	17	5	0	23	5	1	13	16	16	7	6	10	5	10	1	3	0	0	6	6	11	6	0	4	25	6	23	10	12	7	8	20	10	17	5	13	10	7	8	12	13	17	1	1	9	9	10	9	1	11	3
Undecided	46	28	18	11	13	14	8	24	23	1	5	44	2	1	5	41	32	8	6	5	21	16	1	2	0	1	8	20	16	2	0	7	35	16	29	13	14	19	27	16	26	11	6	24	13	11	12	19	27	20	6	8	11	15	6	21	4	7	4
Total	937	484	453	119	193	323	302	312	625	70	60	867	34	36	227	710	441	272	224	404	304	178	29	12	5	4	284	338	261	22	9	193	658	381	507	207	309	411	522	367	460	387	129	312	473	201	331	362	253	684	81	94	324	216	222	363	142	227	61
Composition of Likely & Actual GOP Presidential Primary Voters	100%	52%	48%	13%	21%	34%	32%	33%	67%	7%	7%	92%	4%	4%	24%	76%	47%	29%	24%	43%	32%	19%	3%	1%	1%	0%	30%	36%	28%	2%	1%	21%	70%	41%	54%	22%	33%	44%	56%	40%	50%	42%	14%	34%	52%	23%	37%	40%	27%	73%	9%	10%	35%	23%	24%	41%	16%	26%	7%

2	If you were filling out your Democratic presidential primary ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Or Bernie Sanders?

823 Likely & Actual Democratic Presidential Primary Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Hillary Clinton	502	204	299	80	140	140	142	220	283	24	66	309	157	37	135	367	265	141	97	5	4	3	11	54	216	208	25	62	170	155	62	12	466	113	373	125	186	185	118	354	140	346	68	164	260	138	171	178	190	313	29	52	126	92	203	204	42	76	59
Bernie Sanders	248	117	132	72	63	66	47	135	113	11	28	190	37	22	56	193	150	60	38	6	2	13	24	44	86	72	14	22	76	84	43	8	226	25	209	112	87	44	55	180	64	172	31	80	131	67	116	54	121	128	15	22	75	61	76	69	25	27	38
Undecided	72	36	35	8	30	16	18	38	34	0	0	47	23	2	4	68	38	13	20	3	3	10	6	11	20	18	3	15	22	11	14	4	60	14	52	19	23	29	18	48	32	32	8	28	34	19	26	23	32	39	5	12	11	14	29	25	8	6	10
Total	823	357	466	160	233	222	207	393	429	35	95	545	217	60	195	627	453	214	155	13	9	27	41	109	323	298	42	99	268	249	119	24	752	153	633	256	295	259	191	583	236	550	107	272	425	224	313	255	343	480	49	86	212	167	308	299	75	109	107
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Presidential Primary Voters	100%	43%	57%	19%	28%	27%	25%	48%	52%	4%	12%	66%	26%	7%	24%	76%	55%	26%	19%	2%	1%	3%	5%	13%	39%	36%	5%	12%	33%	30%	15%	3%	92%	19%	77%	32%	36%	32%	24%	72%	29%	68%	13%	34%	53%	28%	40%	32%	42%	58%	6%	10%	26%	20%	37%	40%	10%	15%	14%

3	If the August 30th Republican primary for United States Senate were today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Ron DeSantis? David Jolly? Carlos Lopez-Cantera? Todd Wilcox? Carlos Beruff? Ilya Katz? Or another candidate?

724 Likely August GOP Primary Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Ron DeSantis	80	46	35	5	11	23	42	16	65	4	4	77	2	1	29	51	33	24	23	42	28	10	0	0	0	0	32	30	16	2	0	25	52	42	38	15	27	39	54	26	42	35	10	29	40	16	30	31	17	63	2	18	34	11	16	37	14	18	1
David Jolly	127	78	49	16	30	38	43	46	81	4	5	115	8	4	41	85	49	39	38	65	38	17	5	0	1	0	42	52	28	2	0	33	87	42	80	37	35	51	64	59	71	35	15	39	67	25	45	48	22	105	7	8	37	62	12	45	28	38	6
Carlos Lopez-Cantera	63	43	20	5	21	21	16	26	37	29	8	59	2	3	17	45	26	25	11	23	24	11	3	0	2	0	18	21	21	1	0	13	46	15	46	14	24	24	39	21	20	34	9	14	38	10	21	29	22	41	6	4	7	6	40	31	4	15	7
Todd Wilcox	53	29	24	10	9	22	13	19	35	3	4	48	2	3	8	43	15	17	21	27	12	10	3	0	0	2	20	16	15	0	2	15	37	28	24	8	20	25	38	14	31	19	7	23	22	13	18	20	9	44	7	4	24	14	5	17	10	15	6
Carlos Beruff	10	6	4	1	4	2	2	6	4	2	1	8	2	0	1	9	4	4	2	5	4	0	0	0	2	0	1	4	3	2	0	3	7	2	7	0	4	5	6	3	9	1	1	3	6	0	1	7	1	9	0	1	5	1	2	4	1	5	0
Ilya Katz	28	12	15	3	5	10	10	8	19	0	0	25	3	0	8	19	9	6	12	11	6	6	3	1	0	0	9	11	6	1	0	4	20	14	11	5	12	11	13	11	11	16	5	8	14	13	6	8	4	23	2	3	9	4	10	9	2	8	2
Other	119	55	64	3	6	62	48	9	110	8	5	110	2	7	35	84	32	54	32	47	41	23	3	4	0	0	34	39	32	8	1	27	91	53	61	21	42	55	54	63	65	40	21	33	64	26	42	46	6	113	13	5	49	16	35	54	15	22	10
Undecided	244	115	129	31	55	86	71	87	158	6	12	237	3	4	51	191	150	50	44	110	79	45	5	2	1	1	83	95	56	4	1	39	172	108	121	51	63	129	147	82	119	102	25	83	130	43	99	90	92	152	33	28	92	48	42	89	42	62	16
Total	724	383	340	75	141	263	245	216	508	56	38	679	23	22	190	527	319	220	184	329	233	123	21	7	5	3	239	269	176	20	5	159	511	303	388	151	227	337	417	278	368	283	94	232	381	148	262	280	173	550	71	71	258	162	162	286	116	182	48
Composition of Likely August GOP Primary Voters	100%	53%	47%	10%	19%	36%	34%	30%	70%	8%	6%	94%	3%	3%	26%	73%	44%	30%	25%	46%	32%	17%	3%	1%	1%	0%	33%	37%	24%	3%	1%	22%	71%	42%	54%	21%	32%	47%	58%	39%	52%	40%	13%	33%	54%	21%	38%	41%	24%	76%	10%	10%	36%	22%	22%	41%	17%	26%	7%

4	There has been speculation that Ben Carson may enter the race for US Senate as he ends his campaign for the presidency. If Ben Carson runs in the Republican Primary for United States Senate, will you definitely vote for him? Definitely vote for someone else? Or is it too soon to say?

724 Likely August GOP Primary Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Definitely Vote For Ben Carson	403	198	205	45	67	143	148	112	291	32	19	381	11	12	103	298	167	128	108	203	132	62	6	0	0	1	151	176	66	6	0	116	259	203	185	75	134	192	275	115	212	157	52	144	200	76	162	151	86	317	30	40	142	101	91	164	75	106	21
Definitely Vote For Someone Else	110	68	42	13	20	45	32	33	77	13	7	100	7	3	29	80	51	35	24	35	44	16	5	4	2	2	18	28	47	9	4	14	91	24	83	23	38	47	39	67	64	38	12	28	67	21	35	48	33	77	7	9	44	19	30	42	10	23	11
Too Soon To Say	210	117	93	17	54	75	64	71	139	11	12	199	5	7	57	149	101	57	52	92	57	45	10	3	3	0	70	65	63	5	1	28	161	76	120	53	55	98	102	96	91	87	29	59	114	51	65	81	54	156	34	22	72	42	41	79	32	53	17
Total	724	383	340	75	141	263	245	216	508	56	38	679	23	22	190	527	319	220	184	329	233	123	21	7	5	3	239	269	176	20	5	159	511	303	388	151	227	337	417	278	368	283	94	232	381	148	262	280	173	550	71	71	258	162	162	286	116	182	48
Composition of Likely August GOP Primary Voters	100%	53%	47%	10%	19%	36%	34%	30%	70%	8%	6%	94%	3%	3%	26%	73%	44%	30%	25%	46%	32%	17%	3%	1%	1%	0%	33%	37%	24%	3%	1%	22%	71%	42%	54%	21%	32%	47%	58%	39%	52%	40%	13%	33%	54%	21%	38%	41%	24%	76%	10%	10%	36%	22%	22%	41%	17%	26%	7%

5	If the August 30th Democratic primary for United States Senate were today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Alan Grayson? Patrick Murphy? Pam Keith? Or another candidate?

592 Likely August Democratic Primary Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Alan Grayson	95	48	47	16	17	32	30	33	62	4	12	70	17	8	31	59	49	27	18	1	1	0	2	11	43	38	8	8	24	27	26	3	88	11	79	36	31	26	19	66	27	60	7	34	51	24	34	33	34	61	3	12	43	14	23	42	6	7	14
Patrick Murphy	159	77	82	22	44	45	48	66	93	2	29	106	39	13	52	107	75	46	37	3	0	8	9	14	59	66	3	19	56	43	32	2	150	27	125	34	59	60	32	117	40	111	18	46	89	32	61	59	54	105	7	9	34	32	78	58	14	33	20
Pam Keith	68	32	36	11	22	20	15	33	35	6	7	49	14	5	19	47	29	30	9	2	1	2	2	6	29	27	4	18	18	19	7	6	57	21	43	16	35	17	21	47	16	51	9	33	26	20	27	20	20	48	5	11	17	16	19	30	7	6	10
Other	88	43	45	4	25	32	27	30	58	7	8	55	25	8	25	56	19	33	36	3	2	8	7	5	22	41	6	13	28	18	16	2	81	19	63	15	24	47	24	57	36	45	8	19	58	20	25	37	10	78	8	8	20	11	41	48	6	9	6
Undecided	183	68	114	25	65	50	43	90	92	8	18	121	48	13	32	145	121	32	29	4	2	3	7	26	69	71	15	14	54	60	27	2	170	34	139	69	50	61	43	128	45	127	17	62	96	54	79	41	99	84	17	23	39	46	57	59	10	25	35
Total	592	268	324	77	174	178	163	252	341	27	74	401	144	47	158	414	294	169	129	13	6	20	27	63	221	242	35	72	180	168	108	15	547	113	449	170	199	211	140	416	165	394	60	194	321	151	226	191	217	376	39	63	153	119	218	237	43	80	84
Composition of Likely August Democratic Primary Voters	100%	45%	55%	13%	29%	30%	27%	42%	58%	5%	13%	68%	24%	8%	27%	70%	50%	29%	22%	2%	1%	3%	5%	11%	37%	41%	6%	12%	31%	29%	18%	3%	93%	19%	77%	29%	34%	36%	24%	72%	29%	68%	10%	34%	56%	27%	40%	34%	37%	63%	7%	11%	26%	20%	37%	42%	8%	14%	15%

6	If the November election for President were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?

1961 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Donald Trump (R)	878	453	425	82	176	321	299	258	620	50	46	804	35	39	180	555	385	274	219	348	217	177	63	22	35	15	250	326	237	25	14	183	600	329	495	222	297	349	466	366	432	364	153	319	385	219	334	284	223	655	77	91	316	193	201	373	180	201	55
Hillary Clinton (D)	854	385	469	134	264	236	220	398	456	32	104	593	199	62	182	543	437	228	189	19	47	49	67	125	269	278	41	93	296	238	131	19	796	168	656	257	294	286	194	607	241	566	99	260	471	227	289	302	306	548	57	78	229	183	307	349	78	121	117
Undecided	229	95	134	47	60	66	56	107	122	13	21	206	8	15	32	133	133	60	36	51	36	54	39	20	21	8	53	52	72	32	5	24	180	77	141	65	72	83	110	97	90	110	33	73	108	58	84	68	102	127	15	30	79	41	64	83	14	58	27
Total	1961	933	1028	264	499	623	575	763	1198	96	172	1604	241	116	395	1231	956	562	444	417	300	279	169	167	324	300	345	471	605	294	150	225	1575	573	1291	544	663	719	770	1069	764	1040	285	651	963	504	707	655	631	1330	149	199	624	418	571	805	272	380	199
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	13%	25%	32%	29%	39%	61%	5%	9%	82%	12%	6%	23%	73%	49%	29%	23%	21%	15%	14%	9%	9%	17%	15%	18%	24%	31%	15%	8%	12%	81%	29%	66%	28%	34%	37%	40%	56%	40%	55%	15%	34%	51%	27%	38%	35%	32%	68%	8%	10%	32%	21%	29%	41%	14%	19%	10%

7	OK, what if it were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton?

1961 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Ted Cruz (R)	867	446	420	112	196	282	277	308	559	58	48	787	41	39	170	562	412	243	212	343	210	180	69	20	27	18	278	333	197	22	13	185	581	371	450	202	281	367	510	305	435	338	142	307	390	222	329	273	254	613	83	92	305	194	193	340	163	219	65
Hillary Clinton (D)	899	399	500	124	264	282	229	388	511	35	109	645	190	64	191	568	457	248	194	32	54	52	71	127	286	276	39	102	323	249	132	24	837	155	709	281	318	286	181	667	258	596	111	277	488	234	311	319	317	582	57	84	252	185	322	386	83	127	120
Undecided	196	88	107	27	40	60	69	67	128	3	14	172	10	13	34	101	87	71	38	42	36	48	29	20	12	6	28	36	86	24	5	15	157	48	131	60	64	66	79	97	71	106	32	68	85	48	68	62	60	135	9	24	67	39	57	80	26	33	15
Total	1961	933	1028	264	499	623	575	763	1198	96	172	1604	241	116	395	1231	956	562	444	417	300	279	169	167	324	300	345	471	605	294	150	225	1575	573	1291	544	663	719	770	1069	764	1040	285	651	963	504	707	655	631	1330	149	199	624	418	571	805	272	380	199
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	13%	25%	32%	29%	39%	61%	5%	9%	82%	12%	6%	23%	73%	49%	29%	23%	21%	15%	14%	9%	9%	17%	15%	18%	24%	31%	15%	8%	12%	81%	29%	66%	28%	34%	37%	40%	56%	40%	55%	15%	34%	51%	27%	38%	35%	32%	68%	8%	10%	32%	21%	29%	41%	14%	19%	10%

8	What if it were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton?

1961 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Marco Rubio (R)	867	444	422	110	194	286	276	304	563	56	63	795	38	34	174	549	414	250	203	334	219	182	67	22	28	13	255	330	211	32	12	164	608	359	463	198	286	371	490	322	430	349	143	294	407	219	328	284	255	612	79	99	297	189	204	349	152	225	56
Hillary Clinton (D)	885	387	498	118	259	278	230	377	508	37	100	623	198	64	189	569	441	246	198	38	51	45	65	122	282	281	50	102	302	241	133	33	811	164	687	274	311	282	194	646	256	587	110	277	472	234	304	306	304	581	56	80	243	181	327	374	86	122	120
Undecided	210	102	108	35	47	59	69	82	128	3	9	185	6	19	32	113	101	66	44	46	30	52	37	23	15	6	39	40	93	22	5	28	156	51	141	72	66	65	86	101	77	104	32	80	85	51	75	65	72	137	15	20	85	48	41	82	34	32	23
Total	1961	933	1028	264	499	623	575	763	1198	96	172	1604	241	116	395	1231	956	562	444	417	300	279	169	167	324	300	345	471	605	294	150	225	1575	573	1291	544	663	719	770	1069	764	1040	285	651	963	504	707	655	631	1330	149	199	624	418	571	805	272	380	199
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	13%	25%	32%	29%	39%	61%	5%	9%	82%	12%	6%	23%	73%	49%	29%	23%	21%	15%	14%	9%	9%	17%	15%	18%	24%	31%	15%	8%	12%	81%	29%	66%	28%	34%	37%	40%	56%	40%	55%	15%	34%	51%	27%	38%	35%	32%	68%	8%	10%	32%	21%	29%	41%	14%	19%	10%

9	What's the biggest issue facing the 2016 candidates for President? The economy? Immigration? Education? National Security? Health Care? Climate Change? Or something else?

1961 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Economy	805	412	393	111	212	266	217	322	483	44	86	641	118	45	163	499	391	237	177	167	138	105	66	62	139	127	127	191	265	127	61	91	655	225	539	211	271	307	316	441	318	427	100	255	427	184	285	298	268	537	64	84	265	149	243	805	0	0	0
Immigration	272	147	125	37	65	84	86	103	169	7	34	205	42	25	60	158	128	79	65	74	43	56	23	18	36	21	59	89	81	20	8	55	176	90	163	76	111	81	134	121	108	134	59	91	111	76	101	79	81	191	26	15	80	54	98	0	272	0	0
Education	77	42	35	20	26	11	19	46	31	3	8	55	13	9	15	56	37	17	23	6	5	10	8	10	21	16	7	12	19	18	14	6	65	16	58	24	27	24	21	47	24	48	8	23	40	17	26	28	29	48	2	14	20	23	18	0	0	0	0
National Security	380	145	235	37	95	118	130	132	248	19	12	333	41	5	82	254	185	110	84	110	72	69	20	17	42	49	94	121	99	36	16	44	313	134	227	84	130	163	184	180	164	188	63	126	184	100	134	133	113	266	25	43	115	96	101	0	0	380	0
Health Care	199	91	109	24	59	70	46	83	117	16	13	171	14	14	35	133	119	53	28	25	23	12	19	30	46	45	25	25	77	37	26	9	172	46	144	68	65	62	51	132	76	113	29	74	91	59	82	52	81	118	15	19	69	32	64	0	0	0	199
Climate Change	80	35	45	21	17	22	19	39	42	1	7	71	3	6	17	42	40	19	22	4	3	7	10	17	13	24	2	7	20	28	18	2	72	12	67	37	26	15	8	66	24	49	4	25	47	19	28	28	27	53	9	13	20	25	13	0	0	0	0
Other	92	46	46	8	21	33	30	29	63	1	11	78	8	6	11	55	36	25	31	21	7	14	15	7	18	10	24	15	23	17	6	13	74	31	58	33	19	38	37	50	30	52	13	40	37	27	35	24	20	71	8	6	34	25	18	0	0	0	0
Not Sure	57	16	41	5	4	19	28	9	47	4	1	50	2	5	11	35	20	22	15	11	9	7	9	6	8	7	6	10	20	11	1	4	48	20	36	11	15	30	19	32	20	30	9	17	27	22	18	13	11	46	1	6	21	14	16	0	0	0	0
Total	1961	933	1028	264	499	623	575	763	1198	96	172	1604	241	116	395	1231	956	562	444	417	300	279	169	167	324	300	345	471	605	294	150	225	1575	573	1291	544	663	719	770	1069	764	1040	285	651	963	504	707	655	631	1330	149	199	624	418	571	805	272	380	199
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	13%	25%	32%	29%	39%	61%	5%	9%	82%	12%	6%	23%	73%	49%	29%	23%	21%	15%	14%	9%	9%	17%	15%	18%	24%	31%	15%	8%	12%	81%	29%	66%	28%	34%	37%	40%	56%	40%	55%	15%	34%	51%	27%	38%	35%	32%	68%	8%	10%	32%	21%	29%	41%	14%	19%	10%

10	Also on the ballot in November will be Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana for individuals with certain medical conditions. On Amendment 2, ... are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?

1961 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Yes	1192	590	603	189	333	390	281	522	671	42	102	958	163	71	216	754	625	307	260	149	164	162	125	135	232	223	125	244	411	223	134	100	1002	280	861	406	426	348	347	782	469	661	169	412	584	308	445	400	442	751	94	128	372	248	351	484	160	202	134
No	420	212	209	29	96	143	153	125	296	37	38	373	25	22	106	259	166	158	96	186	77	55	16	11	46	30	151	141	77	25	11	88	302	180	217	68	118	227	271	130	158	221	69	121	214	98	141	153	92	329	29	37	155	84	115	168	72	106	37
Not Certain	348	131	217	46	71	90	141	117	231	17	32	272	53	23	73	219	164	96	88	83	59	62	28	21	47	47	69	86	117	46	4	37	270	113	213	70	119	144	152	157	136	159	47	118	165	98	121	101	97	251	27	34	97	86	105	152	40	72	28
Total	1961	933	1028	264	499	623	575	763	1198	96	172	1604	241	116	395	1231	956	562	444	417	300	279	169	167	324	300	345	471	605	294	150	225	1575	573	1291	544	663	719	770	1069	764	1040	285	651	963	504	707	655	631	1330	149	199	624	418	571	805	272	380	199
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	13%	25%	32%	29%	39%	61%	5%	9%	82%	12%	6%	23%	73%	49%	29%	23%	21%	15%	14%	9%	9%	17%	15%	18%	24%	31%	15%	8%	12%	81%	29%	66%	28%	34%	37%	40%	56%	40%	55%	15%	34%	51%	27%	38%	35%	32%	68%	8%	10%	32%	21%	29%	41%	14%	19%	10%

11	Would you support or oppose a state constitutional amendment to legalize all forms of marijuana?

2204 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.1 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Support	1003	511	492	230	305	326	142	535	467	49	89	803	141	59	161	618	629	204	170	99	128	134	114	123	223	179	86	175	365	197	126	74	843	214	743	379	363	251	255	684	388	569	158	362	463	270	395	310	485	518	86	119	314	214	271	350	110	137	113
Oppose	903	426	478	94	161	277	371	255	648	63	85	748	96	59	205	546	365	311	227	303	170	136	68	39	102	84	250	283	228	78	23	151	684	348	504	173	279	433	507	347	342	472	141	275	458	234	309	308	204	699	64	69	299	182	290	330	138	196	66
Not Sure	298	117	181	54	86	72	86	141	158	4	32	211	60	27	57	174	172	62	65	35	41	39	39	28	56	60	31	50	128	53	11	26	221	74	197	68	110	109	99	154	103	150	42	114	125	99	85	89	114	185	17	31	88	61	100	124	24	47	21
Total	2204	1054	1151	378	552	675	599	931	1273	116	207	1761	298	146	422	1337	1166	577	462	437	340	309	222	189	381	323	367	509	720	327	159	251	1748	637	1444	619	752	793	861	1184	833	1192	340	751	1046	604	790	707	802	1402	166	219	701	457	661	805	272	380	199
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	25%	31%	27%	42%	58%	5%	10%	80%	13%	7%	22%	71%	53%	26%	21%	20%	15%	14%	10%	9%	17%	15%	17%	23%	33%	15%	7%	11%	80%	29%	66%	29%	35%	37%	40%	55%	39%	56%	16%	35%	49%	29%	38%	34%	36%	64%	8%	10%	32%	21%	30%	41%	14%	19%	10%

12	Do you support or oppose legalizing casino gaming in Florida?

2204 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Already Voted?		Interviewed			Party Affiliation							Ideology					Tea Party		Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.1 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Yes	No	03/04	03/05	03/06	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Economy	Immigrat	National	Health C
Support	1164	633	531	223	333	333	275	556	607	61	109	953	146	65	199	729	680	261	222	219	188	165	114	108	207	160	152	274	416	162	97	122	933	279	824	379	451	320	387	708	474	618	178	409	556	292	445	390	499	665	88	116	374	247	339	452	151	186	120
Oppose	739	314	425	85	122	274	258	207	532	38	68	591	99	49	166	437	323	246	170	178	111	112	61	51	114	113	179	180	194	117	42	101	584	285	424	147	212	360	376	309	266	408	114	227	364	197	259	235	177	562	57	72	235	141	233	245	94	144	58
Not Sure	301	107	194	70	97	68	66	167	134	17	29	218	53	31	58	171	162	70	69	40	41	32	47	31	60	50	37	54	110	48	20	28	231	74	197	94	89	114	98	168	93	166	49	114	126	114	85	82	126	176	22	31	92	69	88	107	27	50	21
Total	2204	1054	1151	378	552	675	599	931	1273	116	207	1761	298	146	422	1337	1166	577	462	437	340	309	222	189	381	323	367	509	720	327	159	251	1748	637	1444	619	752	793	861	1184	833	1192	340	751	1046	604	790	707	802	1402	166	219	701	457	661	805	272	380	199
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	25%	31%	27%	42%	58%	5%	10%	80%	13%	7%	22%	71%	53%	26%	21%	20%	15%	14%	10%	9%	17%	15%	17%	23%	33%	15%	7%	11%	80%	29%	66%	29%	35%	37%	40%	55%	39%	56%	16%	35%	49%	29%	38%	34%	36%	64%	8%	10%	32%	21%	30%	41%	14%	19%	10%