Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22266
 
1st Look At NC Presidential Primaries: Rubio, Bush, Paul, Walker Tightly Clustered on GOP Side; Clinton Swamps Democratic Opposition:

If the 2016 North Carolina Presidential Primaries were held today, Hillary Clinton would easily win on the Democratic side, while 6 different Republicans all poll within 6 points of one another, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable North Carolina.

Among likely voters in the Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton takes 56%. US Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has said she will not run, trails with 11%; Vice President Joe Biden takes 8%: 3 other named candidates each take 3% of the vote. 16% of likely voters in the Democratic primary say they would vote for some other Democrat, or are still undecided.

In the Republican Primary, candidates cluster tightly:

* Marco Rubio gets 16% today and runs most strongly among voters 50+, those with college educations, those with higher incomes, and in Greater Raleigh.
* Jeb Bush takes 15%, drawing strength from moderates and in Southern and Coastal Carolina.
* Rand Paul today gets 14%, and runs 3 times more strongly among voters under age 50 than among voters 50+.
* Scott Walker gets 12%. Among Republicans, Walker gets 11%; among Independents, 22%.
* Mike Huckabee, at 11%, is stronger among younger voters than older voters.
* Ted Cruz takes 10% today. Cruz does twice as well among younger voters than among older voters, and twice as well among Independents than among Republicans.

Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum are further back. 10% would vote for another Republican or are undecided.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,275 North Carolina adults 4/22/15 through 4/27/15. Of them, 1,123 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 333 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 2016 Republican Presidential Primary; 442 were determined as being likely to vote in the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary. Research conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
 
1If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Ted Cruz? Jeb Bush? Chris Christie? Rick Santorum? Scott Walker? Rand Paul? Mike Huckabee? Marco Rubio? Or Rick Perry?
333 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyLived in NCEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberal<6 Yrs6-10 Yrs11-20 Yr>20 YrsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Ted Cruz10%14%6%16%14%9%5%15%7%11%****8%**19%12%6%15%13%11%12%9%9%9%12%12%12%6%17%8%14%8%6%8%
Jeb Bush15%13%16%17%10%17%15%12%16%15%****16%**5%11%23%9%10%10%10%17%14%23%8%18%13%12%17%14%9%18%12%29%
Chris Christie8%9%7%3%8%9%8%7%9%9%****9%**3%6%10%26%3%8%6%9%13%6%7%6%8%12%12%7%10%5%7%8%
Rick Santorum2%0%3%2%1%3%1%1%2%2%****2%**0%1%2%0%3%3%1%1%4%2%0%1%2%0%1%2%1%3%0%3%
Scott Walker12%12%12%0%9%15%16%6%16%12%****11%**22%14%10%0%15%9%14%12%10%14%12%9%14%13%9%13%9%13%18%11%
Rand Paul14%14%13%28%22%8%8%24%8%13%****15%**6%17%10%8%23%7%13%15%12%9%19%12%17%13%24%11%16%14%17%3%
Mike Huckabee11%11%12%15%9%10%14%11%12%11%****10%**13%12%11%5%7%10%11%11%12%12%10%14%12%6%9%12%12%14%8%10%
Marco Rubio16%17%15%12%10%21%18%11%19%15%****17%**14%17%17%0%14%36%15%14%11%13%22%10%14%27%11%18%16%11%22%14%
Rick Perry3%3%2%1%5%2%3%3%2%2%****3%**3%2%5%0%1%0%8%2%2%1%4%4%2%3%0%4%5%1%2%1%
Other/Undecided10%6%14%7%11%7%13%10%9%10%****8%**15%7%6%37%11%5%11%10%15%11%6%13%7%9%0%13%8%12%9%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%11%26%34%28%37%63%92%2%4%83%3%14%65%27%5%5%9%20%65%21%35%44%37%37%26%24%76%43%20%22%15%
 
2If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling your Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Joe Biden? Elizabeth Warren? Jim Webb? Martin O'Malley? Or Bernie Sanders?
442 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyLived in NCEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberal<6 Yrs6-10 Yrs11-20 Yr>20 YrsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Hillary Clinton56%56%56%63%48%55%57%56%56%45%68%64%**64%30%43%58%63%43%76%67%51%61%53%56%55%57%55%53%57%53%59%59%51%
Joe Biden8%8%8%9%10%8%6%10%7%7%11%3%**8%7%8%8%8%22%8%2%9%7%7%10%8%11%5%7%9%11%6%7%10%
Elizabeth Warren11%11%10%14%6%7%16%10%11%18%3%0%**10%12%8%10%16%9%4%7%13%3%14%12%6%14%14%12%10%8%7%13%16%
Jim Webb3%6%1%0%5%5%2%2%4%3%2%11%**0%13%11%2%0%0%1%0%5%2%4%2%6%0%2%0%4%2%9%1%3%
Martin O'Malley3%3%3%4%2%3%3%3%3%3%2%5%**3%1%3%2%7%7%1%2%3%5%0%4%3%3%2%4%3%4%3%3%3%
Bernie Sanders3%5%2%0%9%3%2%5%2%4%2%10%**2%10%0%5%3%4%0%2%4%4%3%3%4%0%6%3%4%4%1%4%3%
Other/undecided16%11%19%10%19%19%13%15%17%20%11%8%**12%27%27%16%3%14%10%20%16%16%20%13%17%14%16%23%14%19%15%14%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%23%23%31%23%46%54%53%38%7%3%80%15%20%50%24%7%11%19%63%23%33%43%45%30%25%23%77%31%18%38%13%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.