| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12591 |
| In 4 of 6 Head-to-Head Matchups, GOP Holds Larry Craig Idaho Senate Seat with Substitute Republican: Should Republican U.S. Senator Larry Craig of Idaho leave the Senate, which at this hour is not certain, Republicans hold the seat when 4 of 6 possible Republican replacement candidates are tested against likely Democratic nominee Larry LaRocco, a former US Congressman, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 534 Idaho registered voters. Here is the rundown: U.S. Congressman Mike Simpson, who has said he does not want to be considered as a interim replacement for Craig in the event that a Governor's appointment is required imminently, defeats LaRocco today by 20 points. Former Idaho Governor Dirk Kempthorne defeats LaRocco today by 19 points. Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch defeats LaRocco today by 16 points. Idaho Attorney General Lawrence Wasden defeats LaRocco by 10 points. In two matchups, against former Attorney General David Leroy and former State Senator Dane Watkins , the results are within the survey's margin of sampling error, and the Republicans do not have a clear advantage. In each of the 6 head-to-head pairings, no more than 16% of self-identified Republicans cross-over to vote Democrat. In each of the 6 head-to-head pairings, at least 67% of Conservatives vote Republican. LaRocco leads among Moderates and among the state's few Liberals in every match-up. Independent voters break for the GOP when Risch, Simpson and Kempthorne are on the ballot. Independent voters break for LaRocco when Leroy and Watkins are on the ballot. Independents split when Wasden is on the ballot. Limitations of this research: Larry Craig has not yet resigned. It is unclear if or when Craig will resign. Should Craig resign, the 2008 U.S. Senate election will be largely influenced by whom Idaho Governor C.L. Butch Otter names as Craig's replacement. That replacement candidate, almost certain to be a Republican, will have the advantage of incumbency in the 2008 contest, and may or may not face a Republican primary challenge. These head-to-head pairings are designed to illustrate how much of a head-start certain well-known Idaho Republicans may have if they were matched against Democrat LaRocco today. |
| 1 | If there were an election for United States Senator today, and the only two names on the ballot were Democrat Larry LaRocco and Republican Jim Risch, who would you vote for? |
| 534 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Party Affiliation | Ideology | |||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| LaRocco | 36% | 38% | 33% | 31% | 37% | 38% | 11% | 74% | 40% | 9% | 53% | 77% |
| Risch | 52% | 49% | 55% | 55% | 51% | 50% | 77% | 18% | 44% | 81% | 34% | 13% |
| Undecided | 13% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 16% | 10% | 13% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 31% | 40% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 31% | 43% | 36% | 10% |
| 2 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Democrat Larry LaRocco and Republican Mike Simpson? |
| 534 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Party Affiliation | Ideology | |||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| LaRocco | 34% | 39% | 29% | 27% | 35% | 39% | 10% | 72% | 38% | 11% | 48% | 76% |
| Simpson | 54% | 51% | 57% | 59% | 54% | 49% | 85% | 17% | 43% | 81% | 40% | 16% |
| Undecided | 12% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 12% | 6% | 11% | 20% | 9% | 12% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 31% | 40% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 31% | 43% | 36% | 10% |
| 3 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Democrat Larry LaRocco and Republican Dirk Kempthorne? |
| 534 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Party Affiliation | Ideology | |||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| LaRocco | 36% | 37% | 34% | 25% | 39% | 43% | 11% | 76% | 38% | 14% | 52% | 63% |
| Kempthorne | 55% | 55% | 56% | 68% | 51% | 48% | 83% | 21% | 45% | 75% | 42% | 29% |
| Undecided | 9% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 18% | 10% | 6% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 31% | 40% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 31% | 43% | 36% | 10% |
| 4 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Democrat Larry LaRocco and Republican David Leroy? |
| 534 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Party Affiliation | Ideology | |||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| LaRocco | 39% | 42% | 35% | 32% | 40% | 44% | 13% | 80% | 40% | 11% | 59% | 79% |
| Leroy | 42% | 41% | 44% | 46% | 42% | 39% | 68% | 14% | 33% | 70% | 24% | 12% |
| Undecided | 19% | 17% | 21% | 22% | 18% | 17% | 19% | 6% | 27% | 19% | 17% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 31% | 40% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 31% | 43% | 36% | 10% |
| 5 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Democrat Larry LaRocco and Republican Dane Watkins? |
| 534 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Party Affiliation | Ideology | |||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| LaRocco | 41% | 45% | 37% | 31% | 43% | 49% | 16% | 82% | 41% | 14% | 60% | 82% |
| Watkins | 40% | 37% | 44% | 47% | 40% | 34% | 64% | 12% | 32% | 67% | 24% | 9% |
| Undecided | 19% | 19% | 19% | 22% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 6% | 27% | 20% | 17% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 31% | 40% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 31% | 43% | 36% | 10% |
| 6 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Democrat Larry LaRocco and Republican Lawrence Wasden? |
| 534 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Party Affiliation | Ideology | |||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| LaRocco | 36% | 39% | 33% | 24% | 40% | 45% | 13% | 79% | 39% | 11% | 51% | 82% |
| Wasden | 46% | 43% | 50% | 59% | 43% | 38% | 68% | 13% | 40% | 75% | 29% | 5% |
| Undecided | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 8% | 21% | 14% | 19% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 31% | 40% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 31% | 43% | 36% | 10% |