Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15300
 
6 Weeks to VA Democratic Primary -- Former DNC Chair McAuliffe Atop 2 Rivals; Statehouse May Flip to GOP in November Former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe is today positioned to defeat two opponents in the bid to be Virginia's Democratic nominee for Governor, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WJLA-TV Washington DC. In a vote today, 04/28/09, 42 days to the election, McAuliffe takes 38%, Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran each get 22%. 64% of likely Democratic Primary voters say they may change their mind -- making any outcome possible.

McAuliffe, who ran Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign, runs strongest in Southeast VA, weaker elsewhere. Moran, who represented a Northern Virginia district in the state House of Delegates for 12 years, leads 2:1 in Northeast VA. The older the primary-voter turnout, the better for McAuliffe. The more gun owners who turn-out, the better for Deeds. Virginia voters do not register with party affiliations, and any voter may vote in the Democratic primary. Among the 1 in 5 likely voters who say they are independents, McAuliffe trails by 7 points; among Democratic primary voters who say they are Republicans, McAuliffe leads by 3. The greater the turnout of self-described Democrats, the better McAuliffe's chances.

 
Republican Bob McDonnell Leads All Democrat Rivals in November General Election Match-ups: In hypothetical November general election match-ups for the open Virginia Governor's seat, Republican Bob McDonnell today defeats each of the 3 Democrats. Among registered VA voters, McDonnell defeats Deeds by 5, defeats McAuliffe by 7, defeats Moran by 12. Virginia's incumbent Democratic Governor, Tim Kaine, is term limited, and not seeking re-election.
 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,600 Virginia adults 04/25/09 through 04/27/09. Of them, 1,396 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 409 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the June 9 Democratic Primary.
 
If the Democratic Primary for Virginia Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Creigh Deeds? Terry McAuliffe? Or Brian Moran?
409 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
Deeds22%34%13%41%13%18%15%26%17%20%27%****33%17%31%27%19%27%18%28%20%25%20%27%18%34%13%22%20%16%36%33%15%31%12%11%33%
McAuliffe38%38%38%23%35%50%44%30%47%37%46%****36%43%24%37%43%28%39%37%41%37%35%45%38%33%41%39%37%41%26%34%40%33%24%62%40%
Moran22%20%24%19%34%16%19%27%17%26%7%****21%20%31%19%18%31%25%18%16%22%35%11%27%18%25%16%26%23%20%29%18%19%47%4%11%
Other / Undecided18%8%25%17%18%16%22%17%19%17%20%****10%21%14%17%20%14%19%17%23%16%10%18%16%14%20%22%16%20%18%4%26%17%17%22%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%25%27%28%20%52%48%63%29%4%4%13%64%22%14%54%26%57%43%49%25%25%25%65%35%62%36%64%77%20%36%64%19%31%20%30%
 
 
Regardless of what you told us about the June 9th primary, thinking ahead now to the GENERAL election in November... If the only two names on the ballot for Governor of Virginia were Republican Bob McDonnell and ... Democrat Creigh Deeds, who would you vote for?
1396 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)44%54%36%40%50%44%41%46%43%51%21%****82%13%44%75%39%14%45%43%50%41%38%63%31%53%38%38%48%15%76%22%17%45%43%50%42%
Deeds (D)39%32%45%43%34%39%41%38%40%33%64%****10%74%28%16%45%73%40%38%35%42%45%22%54%30%48%44%37%69%11%66%68%36%39%35%44%
Undecided17%14%19%17%16%17%18%17%17%16%15%****8%13%28%9%16%13%15%19%15%17%17%16%15%18%14%18%15%16%13%12%15%19%19%14%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%25%32%25%18%57%43%76%17%3%5%33%37%28%29%47%15%60%40%48%28%24%40%50%44%52%33%67%48%46%36%64%27%26%19%27%
 
 
What if the only two names on the November ballot were ... Bob McDonnell and Democrat Terry McAuliffe?
1396 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)46%57%36%51%47%43%41%49%43%51%24%****87%12%45%81%36%23%46%45%48%41%47%67%31%57%37%40%50%15%81%33%14%49%44%44%46%
McAuliffe (D)39%29%48%35%37%42%46%36%44%34%64%****7%78%28%11%49%68%40%40%38%41%42%20%56%27%51%43%38%71%8%61%74%32%42%44%41%
Undecided15%13%16%14%16%15%13%15%14%15%12%****7%10%26%9%15%9%14%15%13%18%12%13%14%17%12%17%13%13%11%6%12%19%14%12%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%25%32%25%18%57%43%76%17%3%5%33%37%28%29%47%15%60%40%48%28%24%40%50%44%52%33%67%48%46%36%64%27%26%19%27%
 
 
What if it was Bob McDonnell against Democrat Brian Moran?
1396 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)46%56%37%47%47%47%44%47%45%51%29%****83%15%46%76%38%24%45%48%51%40%46%66%33%57%38%43%49%17%80%35%18%46%39%47%53%
Moran (D)34%27%41%34%33%35%37%33%36%31%48%****6%67%26%10%43%64%37%31%31%37%40%17%50%25%43%31%36%63%7%57%63%30%46%28%32%
Undecided19%17%22%20%20%18%20%20%19%18%23%****11%18%28%14%19%12%17%21%18%23%15%18%17%18%18%26%15%20%13%8%19%24%15%25%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%25%32%25%18%57%43%76%17%3%5%33%37%28%29%47%15%60%40%48%28%24%40%50%44%52%33%67%48%46%36%64%27%26%19%27%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.