Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18974
 
Caucus-Win Coattails Propel Santorum into Effective Tie With Romney in California Republican Primary:

4 months to the California Primary, but fresh after caucus wins in Colorado and Minnesota and in Missouri's non-binding primary, Rick Santorum draws to within a whisker of nominal frontrunner Mitt Romney, 33% for Romney, 31% for Santorum, effectively even, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Santorum leads Romney among seniors, among evangelicals, among pro-life voters, among Tea Party members, among those who say they are "very conservative," and in the Central Valley region of California.

Romney leads among women, among younger voters, among moderates, and among California's pro-choice Republican primary voters. But even among the most affluent voters, a typical Romney stronghold, Romney's advantage is just 4 points, 35% to Santorum's 31%.

Newt Gingrich, in 3rd place at 17%, gets half as many votes as the leaders, and Ron Paul, in 4th place, gets half as many votes as Gingrich.

In head-to-head November match-ups, asked of all registered voters, California remains a Blue State and Barack Obama is almost assured of the state's 55 electoral votes. Today, Obama leads Romney by 29 points, Paul by 31 points, Santorum by 32 points, and Gingrich by 36 points. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain in California by 24 points.

By a 27-point margin, California adults say same-sex couples should be extended the full legal rights of marriage. The answers come 4 days after a federal appeals court ruled that California's Proposition 8 was unconstitutional. The results are not different than the 4 previous occasions on which SurveyUSA has asked this question of Californians, going back to 2009. Click on the Triangle T to open an interactive tracking graph, a SurveyUSA exclusive.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. 2,400 California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 02/08/12 and 02/09/12. All adults were asked the question about same-sex marriage. Of the adults, 2088 were registered to vote in California, and were asked the head-to-head match-up questions for the November general election for President. Of the registered voters, 633 were registered as Republicans, and of the 633 registered Republicans, 479 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in a June 2012 California Primary. Only these likely Republican Primary voters were asked about the June 2012 primary. This research was conducted with blended sample, multi-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of adults, 72% of registered voters, 84% of likely Republican primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Those respondents unreachable on a home telephone (29% of adults, 28% of registered voters, 16% of likely Republican Primary voters), were shown a visual questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. In these results, cell-phone respondents are a critical ingredient. Santorum leads Romney by 4 points among those interviewed on a home phone, but Romney leads Santorum by 27 points among those unreachable on a home phone. When the two groups are proportionally blended, it's Romney 33%, Santorum 31%, as reported here. Separately, on the November head-to-head match-ups, Obama's lead is 15 to 29 points larger among voters unreachable on a home telephone than it is among voters reachable on a home telephone.

 
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Ron Paul? Rick Santorum? Or one of the other Republican candidates?
479 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.6%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Romney33%31%36%32%34%33%31%33%32%36%**23%33%39%31%33%****18%36%15%37%40%****30%34%33%23%39%30%37%29%34%35%30%34%32%33%
Gingrich17%20%13%18%16%17%17%17%17%17%**23%11%12%18%17%****21%16%17%19%13%****13%11%21%15%18%16%19%22%12%19%11%20%17%20%
Paul9%10%8%18%8%9%5%13%7%8%**15%8%23%7%9%****13%9%13%5%12%****15%6%11%7%11%8%12%12%12%7%8%10%7%13%
Santorum31%31%32%20%33%33%35%27%34%32%**29%26%12%35%31%****45%28%46%32%18%****31%37%28%43%23%40%18%31%29%31%43%29%31%18%
Other3%2%4%2%2%2%5%2%3%1%**0%15%3%3%3%****2%3%4%1%4%****1%3%3%4%2%1%5%2%2%3%1%0%5%8%
Undecided7%7%7%10%6%5%7%8%6%6%**10%8%10%6%7%****1%8%4%5%13%****8%10%5%7%7%6%8%4%11%5%7%6%7%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%59%41%19%23%35%23%42%58%63%3%20%13%16%84%100%0%0%19%79%27%43%26%1%1%11%33%57%40%57%59%38%21%35%45%24%36%23%17%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
2088 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Barack Obama (D)60%56%64%66%62%59%50%64%55%50%82%71%61%67%58%19%87%54%29%63%27%33%66%90%93%60%59%61%46%66%43%71%61%59%62%59%61%53%66%
Mitt Romney (R)31%34%28%22%30%34%43%26%38%42%14%20%28%20%35%72%8%30%59%29%63%59%23%5%4%27%32%31%46%25%49%21%27%31%32%30%31%41%23%
Undecided9%9%8%12%8%7%7%10%7%8%3%9%12%13%7%9%5%16%11%8%10%8%11%5%3%12%9%8%8%9%8%8%11%10%6%11%8%5%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%30%27%28%16%56%44%45%6%32%16%28%72%30%51%16%7%89%11%21%41%17%6%13%35%52%27%69%35%59%27%35%38%21%39%19%21%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
2088 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Barack Obama (D)63%60%67%68%66%61%55%67%59%54%85%71%67%70%61%25%89%57%29%67%27%37%71%89%93%64%63%64%48%69%47%74%64%61%66%60%63%56%74%
Newt Gingrich (R)27%32%22%17%26%32%35%22%33%36%12%19%21%14%31%64%5%25%62%24%65%51%17%6%5%22%26%28%42%21%43%18%22%29%27%28%26%35%18%
Undecided10%9%11%14%8%7%10%11%8%10%3%11%12%15%8%11%6%18%8%9%8%12%12%5%2%14%12%8%10%10%10%9%14%10%7%12%11%8%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%30%27%28%16%56%44%45%6%32%16%28%72%30%51%16%7%89%11%21%41%17%6%13%35%52%27%69%35%59%27%35%38%21%39%19%21%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
2088 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Barack Obama (D)61%58%65%67%65%57%53%66%55%51%82%69%67%69%59%22%88%53%30%65%28%34%67%90%94%61%61%62%47%67%43%72%61%59%64%58%61%56%70%
Rick Santorum (R)29%33%26%20%26%36%40%23%37%39%16%21%24%16%35%67%6%31%61%27%66%57%21%4%3%26%28%31%46%23%49%19%25%32%30%32%30%35%19%
Undecided9%9%9%13%8%7%7%11%7%10%2%10%9%15%7%11%5%16%9%9%6%10%12%6%3%13%11%8%7%10%9%9%14%9%6%10%8%9%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%30%27%28%16%56%44%45%6%32%16%28%72%30%51%16%7%89%11%21%41%17%6%13%35%52%27%69%35%59%27%35%38%21%39%19%21%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Ron Paul, who would you vote for?
2088 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Barack Obama (D)60%55%64%59%64%60%54%61%58%51%81%66%64%64%58%24%86%48%30%63%30%36%65%84%87%60%58%60%47%65%43%70%57%59%63%57%61%52%67%
Ron Paul (R)29%34%24%30%27%30%31%28%30%35%14%24%28%23%32%60%9%34%60%26%58%48%23%11%12%27%28%31%38%26%42%22%28%31%29%31%29%34%24%
Undecided11%11%11%11%10%10%15%11%12%14%4%10%8%13%10%17%5%18%10%11%12%16%12%5%1%13%13%9%15%9%14%8%15%10%9%12%10%14%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%30%27%28%16%56%44%45%6%32%16%28%72%30%51%16%7%89%11%21%41%17%6%13%35%52%27%69%35%59%27%35%38%21%39%19%21%
 
 
Should same-sex couples be able to share in the legal benefits of marriage, such as the right to inherit property and the right to make medical decisions for one another? Or should the legal benefits of marriage be restricted only to couples consisting of a man and a woman?
2400 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Same-sex Couples61%59%63%67%59%61%52%64%57%67%50%60%52%65%60%44%69%67%43%63%32%40%67%84%91%58%60%63%37%72%40%75%57%63%63%55%58%63%71%
Man And a Woman34%37%32%28%38%34%41%32%37%29%46%35%40%31%35%52%26%29%52%33%62%57%28%13%4%35%35%33%59%24%55%22%38%33%33%41%37%33%23%
Not Sure5%4%6%5%3%5%7%4%6%4%4%5%8%4%5%4%5%4%4%4%6%4%5%3%6%7%5%4%4%4%5%3%5%4%4%5%5%4%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%33%27%25%15%60%40%44%6%33%17%29%71%30%51%16%7%90%10%21%41%17%5%15%35%50%26%69%36%58%30%34%36%22%38%19%21%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.