Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15877
 
One Month Out, Voters Focus on Washington State Ballot Measures: Washington State voters approve Initiative 1033 in a vote today, 10/06/09, 45% to 32%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle. The measure, which would limit spending for state, county and local governments, is backed by 3 of 4 conservatives, 2 of 3 Republicans, and by a 2:1 margin among Independents. Liberals and Democrats are opposed by margins of 2:1. 22% of likely voters are not yet certain how they will vote on I-1033; any outcome remains possible. Typically, opposition to ballot measures builds as Election Day approaches. This is especially true when a ballot measure seeks to spend taxpayer money. In the present case, Initiative 1033 seeks to limit the spending of taxpayer money, so the general rule may or may not apply. Further: all-mail voting in Washington State, which begins when ballots are mailed in mid-October, makes the concept of an "Election Day" less meaningful.

Voters are divided on Referendum 71, which would expand the rights, responsibilities, and obligations of registered domestic partners and their families. The referendum asks voters to approve or reject a state law, signed by Governor Christine Gregoire in May 2009, which expanded the state's domestic partnership laws. Today, 45% of likely voters say they are certain to vote to approve Referendum 71; 42% are certain to reject; 13% are not certain. Among men, the measure is rejected by a 4-point margin; among women, it is approved by 12 points -- a 16-point gender gap. 72% of Republicans say they will vote to reject; 72% of Democrats say they will vote to approve; independents reject by a 13-point margin. In Metro Seattle, the measure is approved by 18 points; in Eastern Washington, it is rejected by 18 points. Western Washington voters outside of Metro Seattle are more divided, with an 8-point margin voting against the referendum.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,050 Washington State adults 10/03/09 through 10/05/09. Of them, 907 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 548 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the November general election.
 
Initiative 1033 would limit spending for state, county and local governments. On Initiative 1033, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Voters who were not certain were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1033, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}
548 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes45%50%41%44%46%46%45%46%45%46%****36%67%26%52%75%40%20%43%50%45%46%48%41%46%
Certain No32%34%30%39%27%34%32%31%33%31%****45%16%48%28%11%38%49%39%23%23%35%33%27%34%
Not Certain22%16%29%17%27%20%24%23%21%23%****19%17%26%20%14%22%31%19%27%32%19%19%32%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%53%47%18%31%32%19%49%51%83%3%4%10%26%38%33%29%46%20%57%43%26%74%25%22%53%
 
 
Referendum 71 would expand the rights, responsibilities, and obligations of registered domestic partners and their families. On Referendum 71, are you... Certain to vote to approve? Certain to vote to reject? Or not certain? {Voters who were not certain were asked: At this hour, on Referendum 71, do you ... lean toward voting to approve? lean toward voting to reject, or do you not lean?}
548 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Approve45%42%48%58%35%48%44%43%46%43%****58%17%72%36%12%52%74%50%39%46%45%40%31%53%
Certain Reject42%46%36%36%45%42%40%42%41%44%****30%72%15%49%77%34%12%43%39%35%44%48%49%35%
Not Certain13%12%16%6%20%10%16%15%12%13%****12%10%13%15%11%14%14%7%22%19%11%11%20%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%53%47%18%31%32%19%49%51%83%3%4%10%26%38%33%29%46%20%57%43%26%74%25%22%53%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.