Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14557
In Washington State, Obama's Coattails Do Not Help Gregoire, McCain's Struggles Do Not Hurt Rossi: In an election for Governor of Washington today, 10/14/08, 21 days until votes are counted, incumbent Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi are still effectively tied, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KING-TV Seattle and KATU-TV Portland Oregon. Today, it's Gregoire 48%, Rossi 47%. In eight tracking polls conducted by SurveyUSA since April 2008, Gregoire has led seven times, Rossi one time -- but neither candidate has ever led by more than the margin of sampling error.

Most striking: SurveyUSA is polling in 28 states. In state after state, as Democrat Barack Obama has run up the score at the top of the ticket, down-ticket Democrats have benefited. In other states, a rising Democratic tide is floating the boats of Democratic candidates for Senator, Governor, and Attorney General. Not in Washington State. Dino Rossi, rare among Republicans running for statewide office in 2008, is not being dragged down by John McCain. Christine Gregoire is not being pumped up by Barack Obama.

Among men, Rossi has regained the nominal lead, swinging from a tie to a six-point lead. Among women, Rossi has fallen off, increasing Gregoire's lead from 4 points to 7. The gender gap between the two candidates is now 13 points, the largest since Mid-August. Independents, who make up 28% of likely voters, have consistently preferred Rossi since June, by margins of 24, 8, 10, 6, 2, and 10 points; today, independents favor Rossi by 8. Gregoire was elected to her first term in 2004, when multiple recounts were needed to determine the winner. On the third recount, Gregoire was determined to have received 129 more votes than Rossi. Gregoire succeeded Democrat Gary Locke. The state has not had a Republican governor in 23 years, since John D. Spellman left office in 1985.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Washington adults 10/12/08 and 10/13/08; of the adults, 631 identified themselves as being registered to vote in Washington state. Of the registered voters, 544 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. 37 of Washington's 39 counties vote exclusively by mail; ballots begin being mailed to voters this week, and must be postmarked no later than Election Day, 11/04/08.
If you were filling out your ballot for Governor right now, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Dino Rossi? Or, Democrat Christine Gregoire?
544 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Rossi (R)47%51%43%54%49%43%41%51%42%49%****41%88%16%51%86%43%14%47%47%58%44%39%75%31%42%**34%40%84%****77%45%48%53%58%39%
Gregoire (D)48%45%50%38%45%54%55%42%54%47%****46%11%79%43%11%54%83%49%47%37%52%55%21%63%53%**58%55%11%****19%51%47%44%38%53%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%20%34%26%19%55%45%86%2%4%8%29%40%28%25%42%19%51%49%36%24%41%35%63%58%3%10%6%8%3%4%6%35%65%27%21%52%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.