| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17143 |
| Movement to the Democrat or Just 'Noise' in Louisville Metro Mayor Race? In an election for Louisville Metro Mayor today, 09/27/10, Democrat Greg Fischer edges Republican Hal Heiner 48% to 42%, according to this latest exclusive Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Fischer is up a single point; Heiner is down 3. In 3 SurveyUSA polls on the contest, Fischer has received 45%, 47%, and now 48% of the vote; Heiner has gotten 45%, 45%, and 42%. While the trend is in Fischer's favor, the amount of movement is small enough that it may or may not be statistically significant. Among men, Fischer has momentum; 2 months ago, Heiner led by 17 points; 1 month ago, Heiner led by 11; today, Heiner leads by 1 -- a 16-point shift to the Democrat. There is offsetting but smaller movement among women, where Fischer has led by 18, 16, and now 12 points. Heiner, a Metro Councilman, has also lost some support among whites, where he had led by 9 points 1 month ago; today, he is nominally 3 points ahead among white voters. Fischer, a 2008 candidate for US Senate, continues to lead overwhelmingly among blacks. Turnout will be critical in determining the winner, and it is conceivable either candidate could be pulled into office by the coattails of the US Senate candidate from his party. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Jefferson County KY 09/23/10 through 09/26/10. Of them, 812 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 596 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Incumbent mayor Jerry Abramson is running for Kentucky Lieutenant Governor in 2011 and is not seeking re-election as Metro Mayor. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for Louisville Metro Mayor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Hal Heiner? Democrat Greg Fischer? Independent Nimbus Couzin? Independent Jackie Green? Or Independent Jerry Mills? |
| 596 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Own a Gun? | Income | Abortion | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Pro-life | Pro-choi | |
| Heiner (R) | 42% | 46% | 38% | 32% | 45% | 43% | 45% | 40% | 44% | 47% | 13% | ** | ** | 80% | 17% | 59% | 77% | 32% | 8% | 81% | 12% | 44% | 24% | 46% | 38% | 48% | 36% | 39% | 53% | 34% | 37% | 47% | 61% | 28% |
| Fisher (D) | 48% | 45% | 50% | 52% | 44% | 49% | 48% | 46% | 49% | 44% | 76% | ** | ** | 15% | 71% | 23% | 17% | 60% | 74% | 12% | 78% | 43% | 60% | 45% | 50% | 43% | 49% | 55% | 37% | 57% | 53% | 45% | 30% | 64% |
| Couzin (I) | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Green (I) | 3% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | ** | ** | 1% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Mills (I) | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Undecided | 6% | 4% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 8% | ** | ** | 3% | 7% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 10% | 3% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 16% | 30% | 28% | 25% | 46% | 54% | 83% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 34% | 57% | 9% | 34% | 40% | 21% | 33% | 38% | 21% | 8% | 53% | 47% | 50% | 29% | 21% | 40% | 57% | 37% | 63% | 45% | 52% |