Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14322
Northup Creeps-Up on Yarmuth, 60 days to KY3 Re-Match: In an election for the US House of Representatives from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District today, 09/08/08, eight weeks till votes are counted, Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth defeats former Republican representative Anne Northup in a rematch of the 2006 KY3 election, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it's Yarmuth 53%, Northup 45%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released seven weeks ago, Northup is up 2 points; Yarmuth is flat. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 13 weeks ago, Yarmuth is down 4, Northup is up 5.

Yarmuth today leads by a consistent 8 points among men, women, voters age 18 to 49, and voters age 50+. One notable shift over time: in June, the Democrat led by 7 points among white voters. In July, the contest was even. Today, the Republican leads among white voters by 3 points, 51% to 48%. Among blacks, Yarmuth leads by 69 points.

Yarmuth defeated Northup by 3 points, 51% to 48%, in 2006. Since 2005, Northup has run for Governor of Kentucky and lost in the GOP primary to then incumbent Ernie Fletcher. Northup represented Kentucky's 3rd district for 5 terms, first elected in 1996. In 2004, Northup won with 60% of the vote. The district is watched nationally as a barometer of how other districts may vote.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District 09/05/08 through 09/07/08. Of the adults, 815 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 646 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Anne Northup? Or, Democrat John Yarmuth?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your Mind
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind Mad
Anne Northup (R)45%45%45%49%43%45%45%45%45%51%12%****81%20%40%81%35%8%52%40%33%68%23%40%46%
John Yarmuth (D)53%53%53%47%56%54%53%53%53%48%81%****17%78%57%18%63%91%46%57%66%30%75%56%52%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%20%34%25%20%54%46%83%15%0%1%38%52%9%32%40%14%55%25%20%49%49%14%85%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.