| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14322 |
| Northup Creeps-Up on Yarmuth, 60 days to KY3 Re-Match: In an election for the US House of Representatives from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District today, 09/08/08, eight weeks till votes are counted, Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth defeats former Republican representative Anne Northup in a rematch of the 2006 KY3 election, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it's Yarmuth 53%, Northup 45%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released seven weeks ago, Northup is up 2 points; Yarmuth is flat. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 13 weeks ago, Yarmuth is down 4, Northup is up 5.
Yarmuth today leads by a consistent 8 points among men, women, voters age 18 to 49, and voters age 50+. One notable shift over time: in June, the Democrat led by 7 points among white voters. In July, the contest was even. Today, the Republican leads among white voters by 3 points, 51% to 48%. Among blacks, Yarmuth leads by 69 points. Yarmuth defeated Northup by 3 points, 51% to 48%, in 2006. Since 2005, Northup has run for Governor of Kentucky and lost in the GOP primary to then incumbent Ernie Fletcher. Northup represented Kentucky's 3rd district for 5 terms, first elected in 1996. In 2004, Northup won with 60% of the vote. The district is watched nationally as a barometer of how other districts may vote. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District 09/05/08 through 09/07/08. Of the adults, 815 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 646 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election. |
 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Anne Northup? Or, Democrat John Yarmuth? |
| 646 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Change Your Mind | ||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Could Ch | Mind Mad | |
| Anne Northup (R) | 45% | 45% | 45% | 49% | 43% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 51% | 12% | ** | ** | 81% | 20% | 40% | 81% | 35% | 8% | 52% | 40% | 33% | 68% | 23% | 40% | 46% |
| John Yarmuth (D) | 53% | 53% | 53% | 47% | 56% | 54% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 48% | 81% | ** | ** | 17% | 78% | 57% | 18% | 63% | 91% | 46% | 57% | 66% | 30% | 75% | 56% | 52% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 7% | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 20% | 34% | 25% | 20% | 54% | 46% | 83% | 15% | 0% | 1% | 38% | 52% | 9% | 32% | 40% | 14% | 55% | 25% | 20% | 49% | 49% | 14% | 85% |