Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14149
Republican Northup Closes Gap On Democrat Yarmuth in KY3 Rematch, But Reamins 10 Furlongs Back: In an election for the US House of Representatives from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District today, 07/21/08, 106 days from the November general election, Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth defeats former Republican representative Anne Northup in a rematch of the 2006 KY3 election, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it's Yarmuth 53%, Northup 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six weeks ago, Northup is up 3 points; Yarmuth is down 4. Yarmuth today leads by 9 points among men, by 11 points among women. Six weeks ago, Yarmuth lead by 7 among whites; today, he trails by 1. 13% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Yarmuth; 18% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican Northup. Yarmuth beat Northup by 3 points, 51% to 48%, in 2006. Since 2005, Northup has run for Governor of Kentucky and lost in the GOP primary to then incumbent Ernie Fletcher. Northup represented Kentucky's 3rd district for 5 terms, first elected in 1996. In 2004, Northup won with 60% of the vote. The district is watched nationally as a barometer of how other districts may vote. In SurveyUSA's release today, 34% of likely voters are Republican, nearly identical to the 33% who said they were Republican in SurveyUSA's final 2006 pre-election poll. The number of likely voters who say they are Democrats is also nearly identical: 54% in SurveyUSA's final 2006 pre-election poll, and 56% today.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District 07/18/08 - 07/20/08. Of the adults, 810 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 621 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Anne Northup? Or, Democrat John Yarmuth?
621 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your Mind
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind Mad
Anne Northup (R)43%44%43%36%48%41%47%43%44%49%16%****84%18%49%81%36%12%51%38%33%60%28%40%45%
John Yarmuth (D)53%53%54%59%49%56%52%53%54%48%84%****13%80%45%17%61%86%46%60%64%37%70%52%55%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%19%33%27%21%52%48%83%15%0%1%34%56%9%29%38%18%50%32%18%49%49%18%80%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.