Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14503
 
Support Outweighs Opposition on CA Proposition 4, But 1 in 4 Voters Still Not Certain: In a referendum in California today, 10/06/08, on Ballot Proposition 4, regarding parental notification, the proposition passes 4:3, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KFSN-TV Fresno, and KGTV-TV San Diego. 44% of California likely voters vote "Yes" today; 31% vote "No." But: 25% of likely voters are not yet certain how they will vote, so any outcome is possible on this measure. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released eleven days ago, little has changed; then, Prop 4 was favored by 16 points, today it is favored by 13 points.

Support for the measure is broad; "Yes" leads "No" among men and women, young and old, rich and poor, well-educated and less-educated. Opposition is strongest among liberals, pro-choice voters, and Democrats. Opposition outweighs support in the Bay Area; the measure passes in the rest of the state.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 California adults 10/4/08 and 10/5/08. Of the adults, 879 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 670 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. There is a challenge in any ballot measure polling as to how much of the ballot language to read to respondents. What is read to respondents influences how the respond. Here is exactly what SurveyUSA read to respondents on this question: "Proposition 4 amends the California constitution so that a minor who wishes to have an abortion must wait at least 48 hours after a physician has notified the girl's parent. On Proposition 4, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?"
 
Proposition 4 amends the California constitution so that a minor who wishes to have an abortion must wait at least 48 hours after a physician has notified the girl's parent. On Proposition 4, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
670 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionIntellectual?Traveled AbroadSpeak Another LaUSA Super PowerOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo< $50K> $50KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Yes44%51%39%42%43%44%51%43%47%43%49%46%45%45%47%39%64%34%34%70%42%20%43%46%62%39%29%77%26%46%40%44%43%47%41%46%35%54%37%42%44%52%45%51%31%
No31%27%35%31%35%30%23%34%27%34%22%30%32%30%31%28%17%38%37%14%30%57%33%29%21%27%44%6%45%31%33%31%31%32%30%31%36%23%36%23%34%24%29%28%44%
Not Certain25%22%27%27%22%26%26%24%26%24%29%25%24%25%23%33%18%28%30%16%28%24%25%26%17%34%27%16%28%23%27%25%26%21%28%23%29%23%27%35%22%24%27%21%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%23%34%24%19%57%43%52%10%38%62%7%19%12%34%47%17%27%40%21%56%44%37%29%34%34%63%69%23%86%13%49%51%84%11%35%62%23%77%21%39%18%22%