| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22781 |
|
In Michigan, Kasich Runs Strongest of 3 GOP Finalists, But Sanders Beats All Comers; Baselines Established for Possible Ryan or Romney Entries:
In hypothetical head-to-head matchups in a general election held "today," Republican John Kasich runs the strongest of any of the 3 remaining GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton, but Bernie Sanders outperforms Hillary Clinton and defeats all comers, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling. Possible monkey-wrench candidates Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney are also paired. Michigan has potentially great significance in 2016 given bluster from Donald Trump that he will flip the state's 16 electoral college votes from Blue to Red. In 2008, Barack Obama carried Michigan by 16 points over John McCain. In 2012, Obama carried Michigan by 9 points over Mitt Romney, whose family has deep Michigan ties. Michigan last voted for a Republican for President in 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by 8 points. Here is how the 2016 contest in Michigan looks at this hour, 230 days until votes are counted: * Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump today by 11 points, 49% to 38%. Trump trails among women by 31 points. * Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz today by 10 points, 49% to 39%. * John Kasich defeats Hillary Clinton today by 5 points, 46% to 41%. Kasich is the strongest of the Republican candidates at this hour. * Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump today by 19 points, 55% to 36%. Trump trails among women by 36 points. * Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz today by 21 points, 56% to 35%. * Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich today by 5 points, 47% to 42%. Though neither Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Ryan nor 2012 Republican Party nominee Mitt Romney have asked to be the 2016 Republican nominee, speculation about an unforeseen outcome at the Republican National Convention keeps both names in circulation. Today, in Michigan, SurveyUSA finds: * Hillary Clinton defeats Paul Ryan today by 10 points, 48% to 38%. * Hillary Clinton defeats Mitt Romney today by 13 points, 48% to 35%. 75% of Romney 2012 voters stick with Mitt in 2016; 10% defect to Clinton. In all cases, one must recall that both parties are in the middle of a contested primary season, and neither Republicans nor Democrats have turned significant fire onto their rivals. When that happens, at the national conventions, or the day after, the dynamics of the contest may shift. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 904 likely voters statewide 03/23/16 and 03/24/16. Research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (63% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (37% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Like other polls which have shown similar results, these research findings may be unbearable for Kasich and Sanders supporters. Both Kasich and Sanders face a relentless drumbeat of criticism for staying in the race, and not dropping out. |
| 1 | If the November general election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for? |
| 904 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union HH | Attend Church | Abortion | Evangelical | Military HH | Paying Attention | 2012 Vote | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | Yes | No | Never | Occasion | Regularl | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | A Lot | Some | Romney | Obama | Cell Pho | Landline | Wayne Co | Suburbs | Grand Ra | Rest of | Certain | Probably | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 38% | 49% | 27% | 32% | 38% | 42% | 43% | 35% | 42% | 82% | 67% | 65% | 50% | 8% | 8% | 2% | 70% | 56% | 36% | 15% | 5% | 43% | 36% | 35% | 32% | 46% | 58% | 26% | 54% | 33% | 48% | 34% | 42% | 23% | 71% | 12% | 27% | 44% | 25% | 37% | 33% | 51% | 39% | 27% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 49% | 40% | 58% | 57% | 48% | 42% | 45% | 53% | 43% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 34% | 80% | 86% | 96% | 19% | 25% | 49% | 78% | 86% | 49% | 49% | 53% | 56% | 37% | 28% | 64% | 32% | 54% | 36% | 53% | 47% | 60% | 14% | 78% | 56% | 45% | 67% | 47% | 48% | 40% | 48% | 58% |
| Undecided | 13% | 11% | 15% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 7% | 20% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 10% | 20% | 15% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 15% | 11% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 17% | 11% | 8% | 16% | 19% | 9% | 13% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 18% | 60% | 40% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 26% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 76% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 39% | 55% | 25% | 69% | 25% | 74% | 72% | 23% | 32% | 51% | 37% | 63% | 17% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 88% | 12% |
| 2 | What if the only two candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton ... who would you vote for? |
| 904 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union HH | Attend Church | Abortion | Evangelical | Military HH | Paying Attention | 2012 Vote | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | Yes | No | Never | Occasion | Regularl | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | A Lot | Some | Romney | Obama | Cell Pho | Landline | Wayne Co | Suburbs | Grand Ra | Rest of | Certain | Probably | |
| Ted Cruz (R) | 39% | 45% | 34% | 34% | 40% | 43% | 43% | 37% | 43% | 83% | 71% | 73% | 43% | 10% | 10% | 0% | 71% | 68% | 34% | 12% | 2% | 40% | 40% | 28% | 36% | 57% | 67% | 21% | 68% | 31% | 46% | 38% | 43% | 31% | 79% | 14% | 37% | 41% | 24% | 41% | 40% | 47% | 41% | 28% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 49% | 40% | 57% | 55% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 50% | 46% | 5% | 13% | 14% | 36% | 83% | 81% | 96% | 18% | 21% | 48% | 82% | 89% | 50% | 48% | 57% | 54% | 34% | 23% | 66% | 24% | 57% | 41% | 51% | 47% | 56% | 11% | 77% | 49% | 48% | 68% | 50% | 43% | 41% | 48% | 50% |
| Undecided | 12% | 15% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 21% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 10% | 11% | 18% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 17% | 12% | 11% | 22% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 18% | 60% | 40% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 26% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 76% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 39% | 55% | 25% | 69% | 25% | 74% | 72% | 23% | 32% | 51% | 37% | 63% | 17% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 88% | 12% |
| 3 | And what if the only two candidates were Republican John Kasich and Democrat Hillary Clinton? |
| 904 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union HH | Attend Church | Abortion | Evangelical | Military HH | Paying Attention | 2012 Vote | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | Yes | No | Never | Occasion | Regularl | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | A Lot | Some | Romney | Obama | Cell Pho | Landline | Wayne Co | Suburbs | Grand Ra | Rest of | Certain | Probably | |
| John Kasich (R) | 46% | 55% | 39% | 39% | 49% | 49% | 52% | 44% | 50% | 82% | 80% | 85% | 45% | 21% | 18% | 4% | 71% | 74% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 43% | 48% | 38% | 41% | 62% | 71% | 30% | 66% | 41% | 51% | 45% | 49% | 40% | 84% | 21% | 40% | 50% | 34% | 49% | 49% | 50% | 47% | 39% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 41% | 32% | 50% | 48% | 39% | 39% | 38% | 43% | 39% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 29% | 69% | 70% | 93% | 19% | 17% | 36% | 69% | 81% | 44% | 41% | 45% | 49% | 30% | 20% | 57% | 24% | 47% | 34% | 44% | 40% | 49% | 6% | 67% | 45% | 39% | 59% | 39% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 43% |
| Undecided | 12% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 26% | 10% | 13% | 3% | 10% | 9% | 16% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 12% | 17% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 17% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 18% | 60% | 40% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 26% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 76% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 39% | 55% | 25% | 69% | 25% | 74% | 72% | 23% | 32% | 51% | 37% | 63% | 17% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 88% | 12% |
| 4 | Now, what if the only two names on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders? |
| 904 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union HH | Attend Church | Abortion | Evangelical | Military HH | Paying Attention | 2012 Vote | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | Yes | No | Never | Occasion | Regularl | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | A Lot | Some | Romney | Obama | Cell Pho | Landline | Wayne Co | Suburbs | Grand Ra | Rest of | Certain | Probably | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 36% | 46% | 27% | 27% | 38% | 41% | 41% | 33% | 41% | 82% | 67% | 62% | 42% | 5% | 12% | 0% | 67% | 58% | 33% | 11% | 4% | 41% | 34% | 31% | 31% | 47% | 57% | 23% | 53% | 31% | 44% | 33% | 41% | 21% | 69% | 11% | 26% | 42% | 24% | 36% | 31% | 49% | 38% | 23% |
| Bernie Sanders (D) | 55% | 47% | 63% | 68% | 52% | 48% | 49% | 59% | 49% | 7% | 20% | 28% | 50% | 93% | 83% | 94% | 24% | 30% | 57% | 82% | 96% | 51% | 57% | 66% | 60% | 39% | 31% | 71% | 37% | 61% | 43% | 59% | 52% | 67% | 20% | 81% | 65% | 50% | 71% | 52% | 59% | 45% | 55% | 60% |
| Undecided | 9% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 0% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 10% | 15% | 12% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 17% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 18% | 60% | 40% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 26% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 76% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 39% | 55% | 25% | 69% | 25% | 74% | 72% | 23% | 32% | 51% | 37% | 63% | 17% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 88% | 12% |
| 5 | What if it were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Bernie Sanders? |
| 904 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union HH | Attend Church | Abortion | Evangelical | Military HH | Paying Attention | 2012 Vote | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | Yes | No | Never | Occasion | Regularl | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | A Lot | Some | Romney | Obama | Cell Pho | Landline | Wayne Co | Suburbs | Grand Ra | Rest of | Certain | Probably | |
| Ted Cruz (R) | 35% | 40% | 30% | 30% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 32% | 40% | 86% | 74% | 64% | 31% | 4% | 7% | 0% | 72% | 63% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 34% | 35% | 26% | 29% | 52% | 64% | 17% | 59% | 28% | 42% | 33% | 39% | 27% | 76% | 8% | 33% | 36% | 21% | 36% | 35% | 42% | 37% | 20% |
| Bernie Sanders (D) | 56% | 50% | 61% | 66% | 52% | 51% | 50% | 59% | 51% | 7% | 17% | 27% | 55% | 93% | 85% | 94% | 20% | 30% | 58% | 85% | 97% | 57% | 55% | 66% | 59% | 40% | 29% | 73% | 33% | 63% | 46% | 59% | 53% | 61% | 16% | 82% | 58% | 55% | 70% | 54% | 56% | 48% | 55% | 62% |
| Undecided | 9% | 9% | 9% | 4% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 14% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 13% | 9% | 2% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 18% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 18% | 60% | 40% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 26% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 76% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 39% | 55% | 25% | 69% | 25% | 74% | 72% | 23% | 32% | 51% | 37% | 63% | 17% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 88% | 12% |
| 6 | And what if it were Republican John Kasich and Democrat Bernie Sanders? |
| 904 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union HH | Attend Church | Abortion | Evangelical | Military HH | Paying Attention | 2012 Vote | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | Yes | No | Never | Occasion | Regularl | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | A Lot | Some | Romney | Obama | Cell Pho | Landline | Wayne Co | Suburbs | Grand Ra | Rest of | Certain | Probably | |
| John Kasich (R) | 42% | 48% | 38% | 31% | 44% | 47% | 52% | 38% | 50% | 83% | 80% | 72% | 40% | 16% | 18% | 3% | 69% | 67% | 44% | 18% | 5% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 37% | 58% | 66% | 27% | 61% | 37% | 49% | 40% | 47% | 29% | 82% | 19% | 35% | 47% | 34% | 45% | 43% | 45% | 44% | 31% |
| Bernie Sanders (D) | 47% | 41% | 52% | 62% | 40% | 42% | 40% | 50% | 41% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 40% | 81% | 73% | 90% | 20% | 28% | 38% | 73% | 92% | 45% | 47% | 58% | 51% | 30% | 24% | 62% | 28% | 54% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 58% | 8% | 72% | 52% | 43% | 62% | 44% | 47% | 40% | 46% | 49% |
| Undecided | 11% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 16% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 20% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 18% | 9% | 3% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 5% | 12% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 18% | 60% | 40% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 26% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 76% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 39% | 55% | 25% | 69% | 25% | 74% | 72% | 23% | 32% | 51% | 37% | 63% | 17% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 88% | 12% |
| 7 | Now, what if the only two candidates were Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Hillary Clinton? |
| 904 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union HH | Attend Church | Abortion | Evangelical | Military HH | Paying Attention | 2012 Vote | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | Yes | No | Never | Occasion | Regularl | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | A Lot | Some | Romney | Obama | Cell Pho | Landline | Wayne Co | Suburbs | Grand Ra | Rest of | Certain | Probably | |
| Mitt Romney (R) | 35% | 40% | 30% | 33% | 36% | 34% | 38% | 35% | 36% | 65% | 73% | 63% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 0% | 58% | 67% | 29% | 11% | 1% | 28% | 37% | 29% | 26% | 51% | 58% | 20% | 54% | 29% | 35% | 35% | 36% | 30% | 75% | 10% | 37% | 34% | 26% | 34% | 33% | 43% | 35% | 37% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 48% | 41% | 55% | 55% | 44% | 47% | 47% | 49% | 47% | 16% | 13% | 14% | 41% | 74% | 80% | 96% | 24% | 20% | 47% | 77% | 88% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 57% | 35% | 27% | 65% | 29% | 55% | 41% | 50% | 48% | 54% | 10% | 77% | 48% | 49% | 63% | 47% | 47% | 41% | 49% | 44% |
| Undecided | 17% | 19% | 15% | 12% | 20% | 19% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 23% | 26% | 13% | 11% | 4% | 17% | 13% | 24% | 12% | 11% | 21% | 15% | 19% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 23% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 11% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 19% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 18% | 60% | 40% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 26% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 76% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 39% | 55% | 25% | 69% | 25% | 74% | 72% | 23% | 32% | 51% | 37% | 63% | 17% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 88% | 12% |
| 8 | And what if the only two candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Hillary Clinton? |
| 904 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union HH | Attend Church | Abortion | Evangelical | Military HH | Paying Attention | 2012 Vote | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | Yes | No | Never | Occasion | Regularl | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | A Lot | Some | Romney | Obama | Cell Pho | Landline | Wayne Co | Suburbs | Grand Ra | Rest of | Certain | Probably | |
| Paul Ryan (R) | 38% | 45% | 31% | 36% | 38% | 37% | 41% | 37% | 39% | 73% | 75% | 69% | 40% | 13% | 8% | 0% | 63% | 65% | 35% | 15% | 1% | 34% | 39% | 31% | 29% | 55% | 61% | 23% | 62% | 30% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 31% | 76% | 12% | 38% | 38% | 27% | 38% | 37% | 45% | 38% | 39% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 48% | 40% | 55% | 50% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 48% | 47% | 16% | 12% | 10% | 38% | 75% | 80% | 96% | 24% | 22% | 44% | 75% | 88% | 48% | 47% | 50% | 58% | 35% | 26% | 63% | 26% | 55% | 39% | 50% | 47% | 56% | 10% | 77% | 48% | 48% | 61% | 47% | 44% | 44% | 48% | 45% |
| Undecided | 15% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 21% | 22% | 12% | 12% | 4% | 13% | 13% | 21% | 10% | 11% | 18% | 14% | 19% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 15% | 21% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 11% | 14% | 16% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 29% | 31% | 22% | 18% | 60% | 40% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 26% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 76% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 39% | 55% | 25% | 69% | 25% | 74% | 72% | 23% | 32% | 51% | 37% | 63% | 17% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 88% | 12% |