Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22781

In Michigan, Kasich Runs Strongest of 3 GOP Finalists, But Sanders Beats All Comers; Baselines Established for Possible Ryan or Romney Entries: In hypothetical head-to-head matchups in a general election held "today," Republican John Kasich runs the strongest of any of the 3 remaining GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton, but Bernie Sanders outperforms Hillary Clinton and defeats all comers, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling. Possible monkey-wrench candidates Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney are also paired. Michigan has potentially great significance in 2016 given bluster from Donald Trump that he will flip the state's 16 electoral college votes from Blue to Red. In 2008, Barack Obama carried Michigan by 16 points over John McCain. In 2012, Obama carried Michigan by 9 points over Mitt Romney, whose family has deep Michigan ties. Michigan last voted for a Republican for President in 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by 8 points. Here is how the 2016 contest in Michigan looks at this hour, 230 days until votes are counted: * Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump today by 11 points, 49% to 38%. Trump trails among women by 31 points. * Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz today by 10 points, 49% to 39%. * John Kasich defeats Hillary Clinton today by 5 points, 46% to 41%. Kasich is the strongest of the Republican candidates at this hour. * Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump today by 19 points, 55% to 36%. Trump trails among women by 36 points. * Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz today by 21 points, 56% to 35%. * Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich today by 5 points, 47% to 42%. Though neither Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Ryan nor 2012 Republican Party nominee Mitt Romney have asked to be the 2016 Republican nominee, speculation about an unforeseen outcome at the Republican National Convention keeps both names in circulation. Today, in Michigan, SurveyUSA finds: * Hillary Clinton defeats Paul Ryan today by 10 points, 48% to 38%. * Hillary Clinton defeats Mitt Romney today by 13 points, 48% to 35%. 75% of Romney 2012 voters stick with Mitt in 2016; 10% defect to Clinton. In all cases, one must recall that both parties are in the middle of a contested primary season, and neither Republicans nor Democrats have turned significant fire onto their rivals. When that happens, at the national conventions, or the day after, the dynamics of the contest may shift. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 904 likely voters statewide 03/23/16 and 03/24/16. Research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (63% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (37% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Like other polls which have shown similar results, these research findings may be unbearable for Kasich and Sanders supporters. Both Kasich and Sanders face a relentless drumbeat of criticism for staying in the race, and not dropping out.

1	If the November general election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?

904 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Union HH		Attend Church			Abortion		Evangelical		Military HH		Paying Attention		2012 Vote		Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	Yes	No	A Lot	Some	Romney	Obama	Cell Pho	Landline	Wayne Co	Suburbs	Grand Ra	Rest of	Certain	Probably
Donald Trump (R)	342	214	128	84	107	83	68	191	151	74	75	102	62	11	10	3	114	104	83	23	6	86	246	116	89	133	203	124	119	204	109	227	271	47	203	55	89	253	40	95	79	128	313	30
Hillary Clinton (D)	442	173	269	152	136	84	71	287	155	10	14	23	42	109	105	129	31	46	115	120	102	99	337	176	158	105	98	313	72	331	82	352	301	122	41	351	188	255	105	122	114	102	380	63
Undecided	119	49	69	28	39	32	20	68	51	7	23	32	20	17	7	2	17	37	34	12	10	17	101	37	33	48	49	49	31	78	35	83	71	33	43	43	58	61	12	40	44	23	103	16
Total	904	437	467	264	282	198	159	546	357	90	112	156	123	137	122	134	162	187	232	154	118	202	684	330	280	285	350	486	221	614	226	662	643	203	287	449	335	569	156	257	238	253	796	108
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	29%	31%	22%	18%	60%	40%	10%	12%	17%	14%	15%	14%	15%	18%	21%	26%	17%	13%	22%	76%	37%	31%	32%	39%	55%	25%	69%	25%	74%	72%	23%	32%	51%	37%	63%	17%	28%	26%	28%	88%	12%

2	What if the only two candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton ... who would you vote for?

904 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Union HH		Attend Church			Abortion		Evangelical		Military HH		Paying Attention		2012 Vote		Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	Yes	No	A Lot	Some	Romney	Obama	Cell Pho	Landline	Wayne Co	Suburbs	Grand Ra	Rest of	Certain	Probably
Ted Cruz (R)	356	198	158	90	112	86	68	202	154	75	80	114	53	14	13	0	115	127	79	19	3	80	274	93	100	162	234	104	151	188	104	249	273	63	228	63	125	231	38	105	95	118	326	30
Hillary Clinton (D)	440	175	265	144	130	92	73	275	165	5	15	22	45	114	99	129	30	39	111	126	105	100	330	188	151	96	81	323	53	350	92	337	303	113	31	347	166	274	106	127	102	104	385	55
Undecided	108	64	44	29	40	20	18	69	38	10	17	20	26	10	11	5	17	21	42	9	11	21	79	49	30	28	35	59	17	76	30	76	66	27	28	39	44	64	13	24	40	31	84	23
Total	904	437	467	264	282	198	159	546	357	90	112	156	123	137	122	134	162	187	232	154	118	202	684	330	280	285	350	486	221	614	226	662	643	203	287	449	335	569	156	257	238	253	796	108
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	29%	31%	22%	18%	60%	40%	10%	12%	17%	14%	15%	14%	15%	18%	21%	26%	17%	13%	22%	76%	37%	31%	32%	39%	55%	25%	69%	25%	74%	72%	23%	32%	51%	37%	63%	17%	28%	26%	28%	88%	12%

3	And what if the only two candidates were Republican John Kasich and Democrat Hillary Clinton?

904 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Union HH		Attend Church			Abortion		Evangelical		Military HH		Paying Attention		2012 Vote		Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	Yes	No	A Lot	Some	Romney	Obama	Cell Pho	Landline	Wayne Co	Suburbs	Grand Ra	Rest of	Certain	Probably
John Kasich (R)	420	240	180	102	138	97	83	240	180	74	90	133	56	29	21	5	114	139	112	33	9	86	325	125	114	176	248	146	145	249	115	298	317	81	242	96	133	287	53	125	117	125	378	42
Hillary Clinton (D)	374	141	232	125	110	78	60	236	138	7	10	9	36	95	85	125	31	31	84	106	96	88	278	147	137	85	70	277	54	287	78	289	257	99	17	301	152	222	92	100	87	95	327	47
Undecided	110	55	55	36	34	23	16	71	39	9	12	15	32	13	15	4	17	17	36	15	13	28	81	57	28	24	32	63	22	78	33	76	69	23	27	51	49	61	12	32	34	32	91	19
Total	904	437	467	264	282	198	159	546	357	90	112	156	123	137	122	134	162	187	232	154	118	202	684	330	280	285	350	486	221	614	226	662	643	203	287	449	335	569	156	257	238	253	796	108
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	29%	31%	22%	18%	60%	40%	10%	12%	17%	14%	15%	14%	15%	18%	21%	26%	17%	13%	22%	76%	37%	31%	32%	39%	55%	25%	69%	25%	74%	72%	23%	32%	51%	37%	63%	17%	28%	26%	28%	88%	12%

4	Now, what if the only two names on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders?

904 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Union HH		Attend Church			Abortion		Evangelical		Military HH		Paying Attention		2012 Vote		Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	Yes	No	A Lot	Some	Romney	Obama	Cell Pho	Landline	Wayne Co	Suburbs	Grand Ra	Rest of	Certain	Probably
Donald Trump (R)	325	199	126	73	107	81	65	179	146	74	74	97	52	6	14	0	108	109	76	17	4	82	233	101	85	133	199	110	117	191	99	219	261	44	198	51	87	238	38	92	73	123	300	25
Bernie Sanders (D)	499	205	294	179	146	96	78	325	174	7	23	43	61	128	101	126	39	55	132	127	113	103	388	218	167	110	110	345	82	374	98	393	334	135	57	365	216	282	110	134	141	113	434	65
Undecided	80	33	47	12	30	21	16	43	37	9	15	16	10	3	6	8	15	23	23	10	1	17	62	11	27	42	40	32	22	49	29	50	48	24	32	33	31	49	8	31	24	17	62	18
Total	904	437	467	264	282	198	159	546	357	90	112	156	123	137	122	134	162	187	232	154	118	202	684	330	280	285	350	486	221	614	226	662	643	203	287	449	335	569	156	257	238	253	796	108
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	29%	31%	22%	18%	60%	40%	10%	12%	17%	14%	15%	14%	15%	18%	21%	26%	17%	13%	22%	76%	37%	31%	32%	39%	55%	25%	69%	25%	74%	72%	23%	32%	51%	37%	63%	17%	28%	26%	28%	88%	12%

5	What if it were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Bernie Sanders?

904 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Union HH		Attend Church			Abortion		Evangelical		Military HH		Paying Attention		2012 Vote		Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	Yes	No	A Lot	Some	Romney	Obama	Cell Pho	Landline	Wayne Co	Suburbs	Grand Ra	Rest of	Certain	Probably
Ted Cruz (R)	317	176	142	79	97	77	65	176	141	78	83	101	38	6	8	0	116	118	66	9	1	68	243	84	82	148	226	81	131	172	95	218	248	54	219	37	110	207	33	93	84	107	295	22
Bernie Sanders (D)	503	220	283	174	147	101	80	321	181	6	20	41	68	128	103	126	33	56	135	132	115	114	378	217	166	114	102	356	73	388	104	389	343	123	45	369	193	310	109	139	133	121	436	67
Undecided	83	41	42	11	38	20	14	49	35	6	10	14	17	4	10	9	13	13	31	14	2	19	63	28	32	23	23	50	17	54	27	56	51	26	23	43	32	51	14	24	21	24	64	19
Total	904	437	467	264	282	198	159	546	357	90	112	156	123	137	122	134	162	187	232	154	118	202	684	330	280	285	350	486	221	614	226	662	643	203	287	449	335	569	156	257	238	253	796	108
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	29%	31%	22%	18%	60%	40%	10%	12%	17%	14%	15%	14%	15%	18%	21%	26%	17%	13%	22%	76%	37%	31%	32%	39%	55%	25%	69%	25%	74%	72%	23%	32%	51%	37%	63%	17%	28%	26%	28%	88%	12%

6	And what if it were Republican John Kasich and Democrat Bernie Sanders?

904 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Union HH		Attend Church			Abortion		Evangelical		Military HH		Paying Attention		2012 Vote		Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	Yes	No	A Lot	Some	Romney	Obama	Cell Pho	Landline	Wayne Co	Suburbs	Grand Ra	Rest of	Certain	Probably
John Kasich (R)	383	208	175	81	125	94	83	206	177	75	89	113	50	22	22	5	112	125	102	28	6	85	289	108	105	165	232	132	136	225	110	263	305	59	236	83	117	266	52	114	103	113	350	34
Bernie Sanders (D)	422	177	245	162	113	84	63	275	147	7	10	23	49	111	89	121	32	52	88	113	108	92	323	190	142	87	83	304	61	329	82	334	279	118	22	322	174	247	96	112	111	102	369	53
Undecided	99	51	47	21	44	20	13	65	34	7	12	20	24	4	11	9	18	10	43	13	4	25	72	32	34	33	35	51	24	60	34	65	59	26	29	44	43	55	7	30	24	38	77	21
Total	904	437	467	264	282	198	159	546	357	90	112	156	123	137	122	134	162	187	232	154	118	202	684	330	280	285	350	486	221	614	226	662	643	203	287	449	335	569	156	257	238	253	796	108
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	29%	31%	22%	18%	60%	40%	10%	12%	17%	14%	15%	14%	15%	18%	21%	26%	17%	13%	22%	76%	37%	31%	32%	39%	55%	25%	69%	25%	74%	72%	23%	32%	51%	37%	63%	17%	28%	26%	28%	88%	12%

7	Now, what if the only two candidates were Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Hillary Clinton?

904 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Union HH		Attend Church			Abortion		Evangelical		Military HH		Paying Attention		2012 Vote		Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	Yes	No	A Lot	Some	Romney	Obama	Cell Pho	Landline	Wayne Co	Suburbs	Grand Ra	Rest of	Certain	Probably
Mitt Romney (R)	316	175	140	87	101	67	60	189	127	59	82	98	41	19	10	0	94	126	67	17	1	57	252	96	74	144	203	97	120	175	80	232	231	60	215	47	124	192	41	88	78	109	276	40
Hillary Clinton (D)	437	180	257	146	124	94	74	270	168	15	14	22	50	101	98	129	39	37	108	119	104	101	326	172	160	99	93	314	64	339	94	334	307	111	28	346	161	277	99	122	113	104	390	48
Undecided	150	81	69	31	57	37	25	88	62	17	16	36	32	17	14	5	28	23	57	19	13	43	105	61	46	42	54	75	38	99	53	96	105	32	44	56	50	100	17	47	47	40	130	20
Total	904	437	467	264	282	198	159	546	357	90	112	156	123	137	122	134	162	187	232	154	118	202	684	330	280	285	350	486	221	614	226	662	643	203	287	449	335	569	156	257	238	253	796	108
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	29%	31%	22%	18%	60%	40%	10%	12%	17%	14%	15%	14%	15%	18%	21%	26%	17%	13%	22%	76%	37%	31%	32%	39%	55%	25%	69%	25%	74%	72%	23%	32%	51%	37%	63%	17%	28%	26%	28%	88%	12%

8	And what if the only two candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Hillary Clinton?

904 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Union HH		Attend Church			Abortion		Evangelical		Military HH		Paying Attention		2012 Vote		Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	Yes	No	A Lot	Some	Romney	Obama	Cell Pho	Landline	Wayne Co	Suburbs	Grand Ra	Rest of	Certain	Probably
Paul Ryan (R)	340	198	143	95	108	73	65	203	138	66	84	108	49	17	10	0	102	122	82	23	1	68	266	101	81	157	214	112	137	186	90	247	256	62	219	56	127	214	42	98	87	114	299	42
Hillary Clinton (D)	432	175	257	131	133	97	71	264	168	14	13	16	47	103	98	129	39	40	101	116	104	98	325	165	162	99	90	308	58	336	89	333	299	113	29	344	161	271	96	120	104	112	383	49
Undecided	131	65	67	38	42	28	23	80	51	10	14	32	27	17	14	5	21	24	48	16	13	36	93	63	37	30	45	66	26	92	47	83	88	28	38	49	47	84	18	39	47	27	114	17
Total	904	437	467	264	282	198	159	546	357	90	112	156	123	137	122	134	162	187	232	154	118	202	684	330	280	285	350	486	221	614	226	662	643	203	287	449	335	569	156	257	238	253	796	108
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	29%	31%	22%	18%	60%	40%	10%	12%	17%	14%	15%	14%	15%	18%	21%	26%	17%	13%	22%	76%	37%	31%	32%	39%	55%	25%	69%	25%	74%	72%	23%	32%	51%	37%	63%	17%	28%	26%	28%	88%	12%