Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16720
 
North Carolina Incumbent Republican Senator Narrowly Atop Marshall in Re-Elect Try;
Statewide Concern Over Government Response to Gulf Spill, But Support for Drilling Off NC

In an election for United States Senator from North Carolina today, 06/25/10, incumbent Republican Richard Burr holds his seat for the GOP, narrowly edging Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall 50% to 40%. Republicans are aligned behind Burr more solidly than Democrats are aligned behind Marshall. Independents break for Burr. Burr carries greater Charlotte and Greensboro. Marshall and Burr are effectively even in greater Raleigh and Southern NC.

As in almost all North Carolina statewide elections, the Republican's advantage comes entirely from white voters. Burr is up 23 points among likely whites. The Democrat leads 7:1 among blacks. An unusually heavy black turnout and/or an unusually light white turnout will make the contest closer than it today appears. An unusually heavy white turnout and/or an unusually light black turnout will increase the Republican's advantage.

By 2:1, North Carolina disapproves of the way the federal government has responded to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Men and women see the issue the same. Blacks and whites see the issue differently.
By 5:4, North Carolina supports drilling for oil and gas off the North Carolina coast. Men and woman see the issue differently. Blacks and whites see the issue the same.

An overwhelming percentage of state residents are focused on the economy, but with no consensus on what the future will hold. A third of state residents say the economy will be stronger 1 year from now; a third say the economy will be weaker; and a third say the economy will be about the same a year from now as it is today.

 
Filtering: 1,100 state of North Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 06/23/10 and 06/24/10. Of them 982 were registered to vote. Of them, 617 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 midterm election. Marshall, the secretary of state, defeated Democrat Cal Cunningham 3:2 in a runoff election 06/22/10, the day before interviews for this survey began. Marshall was on the front page of the state's newspapers, and at the top of the state's TV newscasts, during the field period for this survey.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, who would you vote for? Republican Richard Burr? Democrat Elaine Marshall? Or Libertarian Mike Beitler?
617 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party IdentityCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalActive MAgreeDisagreeYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Burr (R)50%55%44%57%46%49%48%50%49%57%16%****87%18%46%78%34%16%69%75%11%49%53%53%49%45%70%31%60%38%43%56%54%54%47%39%
Marshall (D)40%34%47%29%45%40%44%39%42%34%73%****7%74%35%14%57%74%20%15%82%43%36%41%37%42%21%59%32%51%46%36%35%38%45%47%
Beitler (L)6%8%3%7%6%7%3%6%5%6%3%****4%3%12%4%6%8%7%7%5%6%6%3%8%11%5%6%5%6%6%6%5%8%6%4%
Undecided5%4%6%7%3%5%4%5%5%3%8%****2%4%7%3%3%2%4%3%2%3%5%3%6%2%4%3%3%5%6%2%6%1%2%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%19%30%29%22%49%51%79%15%3%4%38%39%22%44%40%11%6%42%31%58%42%59%24%16%49%47%53%43%37%63%38%19%27%16%
 
 
2Which one of the following issues is the most important one facing the United States? The economy? The environment? The war on terror? Health care? Immigration? Education? Or some other issue?
1075 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party IdentityCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalActive MAgreeDisagreeYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Economy63%63%63%54%63%69%68%59%68%63%63%****67%65%56%62%68%55%61%64%68%63%64%65%63%59%65%63%65%65%63%65%67%60%63%58%
Environment4%4%5%5%5%4%3%5%4%5%3%****1%5%9%2%5%11%4%2%8%6%4%4%4%8%2%7%3%7%5%5%4%6%5%4%
War On Terror7%8%6%9%5%6%8%7%7%6%10%****7%7%4%5%6%6%2%7%3%7%5%6%7%3%6%5%6%5%6%6%5%7%8%9%
Health Care9%7%11%9%8%9%10%9%10%9%9%****8%9%12%10%8%11%18%7%10%9%10%9%10%10%9%11%9%10%12%7%8%7%9%14%
Immigration7%9%6%10%7%6%6%9%6%8%5%****11%4%9%13%4%2%11%12%2%6%9%7%9%7%9%5%8%5%6%8%9%10%5%6%
Education4%4%4%5%7%2%1%6%2%4%5%****3%6%3%3%5%4%3%3%6%6%3%5%3%3%5%4%5%4%3%6%3%5%4%4%
Other3%4%2%4%3%2%1%3%2%3%4%****1%2%4%1%3%5%0%3%1%2%2%1%2%5%1%3%3%1%1%3%3%4%2%3%
Not Sure2%2%3%4%1%2%3%2%2%3%1%****2%2%3%2%1%6%1%1%3%2%3%2%2%4%2%2%2%3%4%1%2%2%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%30%29%24%18%58%42%73%19%4%3%33%42%24%37%42%12%6%38%27%47%53%55%26%19%46%49%52%45%48%52%33%19%29%18%
 
 
3One year from now, will North Carolina's economy be ... stronger than it is today? Weaker than it is today? Or about the same as it is today?
1040 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party IdentityCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalActive MAgreeDisagreeYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Stronger29%33%25%29%31%26%30%30%27%24%41%****22%33%24%17%35%36%15%23%41%34%21%30%22%27%18%35%22%33%24%29%24%27%33%31%
Weaker30%30%30%34%27%34%24%30%30%34%22%****38%24%32%41%24%22%56%39%17%27%33%28%32%35%38%21%34%24%32%28%37%30%25%26%
Same36%33%39%33%37%36%41%35%38%38%30%****35%38%37%38%36%36%26%35%39%36%39%38%38%36%38%39%40%37%37%40%34%38%37%37%
Not Sure5%4%6%5%6%4%5%5%5%4%7%****4%5%7%4%5%7%3%3%3%3%7%4%8%3%5%5%5%6%7%4%4%5%5%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%29%29%24%18%58%42%74%20%4%3%33%42%24%37%42%12%6%38%27%47%53%55%26%19%46%49%52%45%48%52%33%20%30%18%
 
 
4Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the federal government's response to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico?
1021 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party IdentityCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalActive MAgreeDisagreeYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Approve28%30%27%25%31%29%28%28%28%23%49%****15%43%21%15%34%41%3%12%58%32%25%31%23%29%18%38%23%35%27%30%28%27%29%29%
Disapprove61%62%59%64%57%61%59%61%60%68%35%****77%44%66%78%57%40%94%83%32%58%62%58%64%61%71%51%69%50%58%62%62%62%59%58%
Not Sure11%8%14%11%12%10%13%12%11%9%16%****8%13%12%7%9%19%3%6%10%9%13%11%13%10%10%11%8%15%15%7%10%11%12%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%28%29%24%18%58%42%74%19%4%3%33%42%24%37%42%12%6%38%27%47%53%55%26%19%46%49%52%45%48%52%33%19%30%18%
 
 
5Do you support or oppose drilling for oil and natural gas off the coast of North Carolina?
996 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party IdentityCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalActive MAgreeDisagreeYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Support49%60%38%47%46%51%52%47%51%50%46%****63%36%52%67%43%22%60%65%31%48%51%52%49%44%62%40%58%40%43%56%54%48%43%48%
Oppose41%33%48%41%43%40%39%42%39%41%40%****30%52%37%27%47%63%35%29%60%43%38%40%37%47%32%48%34%48%45%36%33%45%48%39%
Not Sure11%7%14%12%11%9%10%11%9%9%14%****7%12%11%6%10%15%5%7%10%9%11%9%14%8%6%12%8%12%13%8%12%7%9%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%27%30%25%18%57%43%76%19%2%3%33%42%24%37%42%12%6%38%27%47%53%55%26%19%46%49%52%45%48%52%34%20%30%17%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.