Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15796
 
Final Look at NYC Democratic Primary: On the eve of the 09/15/09 New York City Democratic Primary, there is little question who will face incumbent Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg in the November general election, according to this final pre-primary poll conducted by SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, but the outcome of the Comptroller and Public Advocate races -- and the date on which those outcomes will be known -- is less clear.
 
In the Public Advocate contest, Mark Green finishes first, 09/14/09, Primary Eve, with 33%, ten points atop city council member Bill De Blasio, 16 points atop city council member Eric Gioia. In 5 SurveyUSA tracking polls for WABC-TV, Green has led by 32 points, then 19, then 14, then 16, and now 10. In the past 3 days, De Blasio is up 3, Green is down 3. Gioia and fourth-place finisher Norman Siegel, former director of the New York Civil Liberties Union, are flat. Green is shy of the 40% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. But 10% of SurveyUSA's likely primary voters are undecided. Depending on how these 10% break, and depending on who turns out 09/15/09, the winner may reach 40%, or fall short. If no one candidate reaches 40%, the top two finishers compete in a 09/30/09 runoff.
 
The Democratic battle for NYC Comptroller ends with John Liu at 37% and consolidating support. Liu is up 3 points over the weekend, up 12 points over the past 12 days. 12% of SurveyUSA's likely voters are undecided, and when those are factored into the candidates' totals, Liu has a chance to top the 40% threshold needed to avoid a 09/30/09 runoff. Liu's fellow city council members David Yassky and Melinda Katz tie for a distant second place. SurveyUSA's exclusive interactive tracking graphs highlight Liu's rise among middle-income voters and among voters in Queens.
 
In the race for Mayor of New York, Bill Thompson defeats Tony Avella decisively. City council member Avella's 20% showing in today's release is his best since SurveyUSA polling began; one month ago, Avella was at 11%.
 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,300 city of New York adults 09/11/09 through 09/13/09. Of them, 2,038 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 630 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 09/15/09 Democratic primary.
 
If the Democratic Primary for Mayor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Tony Avella? Bill Thompson? Jimmy McMillan? or Roland Rogers?
630 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyCollege GradIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalYesNo< $50K$50K - $> $100KManhattaBrooklynQueensThe BronStaten I
Avella20%21%19%34%18%14%20%24%16%23%9%34%12%32%20%17%19%23%20%26%10%25%17%23%15%**
Thompson49%54%45%35%48%55%53%43%54%43%65%34%48%34%51%54%51%43%41%51%57%38%53%50%54%**
McMillan4%4%4%6%7%2%2%6%2%5%3%6%3%2%8%2%4%4%6%2%6%5%6%1%3%**
Rogers2%2%1%2%2%2%1%2%2%2%2%1%4%2%1%2%2%1%2%2%1%1%2%4%0%**
Undecided25%19%31%24%25%27%25%25%26%28%20%26%34%30%20%25%23%29%31%19%27%32%22%23%27%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%44%56%18%31%29%22%50%50%29%34%27%10%15%34%39%56%44%42%37%20%24%34%24%16%3%
 
 
Democrats will also vote in a primary for Comptroller. If the Democratic Primary for Comptroller were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Melinda Katz? John Liu? David Weprin? Or David Yassky?
630 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyCollege GradIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalYesNo< $50K$50K - $> $100KManhattaBrooklynQueensThe BronStaten I
Katz21%17%24%18%21%23%21%20%23%27%17%22%19%30%23%19%25%18%25%22%17%27%17%17%26%**
Liu37%39%35%38%39%36%32%39%34%22%46%35%48%24%40%35%34%38%29%46%33%30%34%46%37%**
Weprin8%9%7%5%8%9%11%7%10%9%8%7%10%10%11%6%6%12%12%5%8%4%7%16%7%**
Yassky22%25%19%22%19%21%26%20%23%32%17%20%14%27%19%27%24%17%20%18%29%25%30%11%15%**
Undecided12%10%14%16%13%10%10%14%10%10%12%16%8%9%7%13%11%15%15%9%14%15%12%10%15%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%44%56%18%31%29%22%50%50%29%34%27%10%15%34%39%56%44%42%37%20%24%34%24%16%3%
 
 
Democrats will also vote in a primary for Public Advocate. If the Democratic Primary for Public Advocate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Bill De Blasio? Eric Gioia? Mark Green? Norman Siegel? Or Imtiaz Syed?
630 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyCollege GradIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalYesNo< $50K$50K - $> $100KManhattaBrooklynQueensThe BronStaten I
De Blasio23%24%22%24%22%26%21%23%24%25%22%26%16%18%27%23%24%21%15%28%29%19%26%20%29%**
Gioia17%19%16%26%18%12%14%21%13%21%12%22%10%28%19%14%18%16%14%23%15%15%15%26%11%**
Green33%34%32%23%33%39%33%29%36%29%42%23%40%27%33%32%28%39%41%27%29%30%33%36%29%**
Siegel12%12%12%8%13%12%14%11%13%14%12%9%15%5%12%17%13%12%12%10%17%13%12%11%13%**
Syed5%5%5%6%5%2%8%5%5%3%4%7%6%13%3%4%6%3%5%6%3%7%5%2%4%**
Undecided10%5%14%13%10%9%9%11%9%8%8%13%12%9%6%11%10%10%14%7%7%15%8%5%14%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%44%56%18%31%29%22%50%50%29%34%27%10%15%34%39%56%44%42%37%20%24%34%24%16%3%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.