Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17386
 
Republicans Demmer, Emmer Both Trailing in MN-01: In an election for US House of Representatives in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District today, 10/15/10, DFL incumbent Tim Walz has an advantage over Republican Randy Demmer in Walz's try for a 3rd term, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KAAL-TV in Rochester MN. But there is important learning in the poll data that extends to other Congressional District elections across the country.

Walz got 63% of the vote in 2008, 54% in 2006. He has 47% in today's poll, to Demmer's 42%. Almost everywhere in 2010, incumbent Democrats are getting fewer votes than they did in past cycles. To explore this, SurveyUSA asked the likely voters in this poll whether they vote in ... All? ... Some? ... or, Almost No? ... Congressional elections. 14% of the likely voters SurveyUSA includes here do not regularly vote in Congressional elections, but tell us they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010. Not surprisingly, these uniquely motivated voters, in 2010, are voting Republican. Many pollsters treat these voters as "posers" (assuming they will "talk the talk" to a pollster but not "walk the walk" on election day). Many pollsters exclude these uniquely motivated voters from their likely voter pool. That, in 2010, has the effect of making any poll more favorable to the Democrat. If SurveyUSA excluded uniquely motivated voters from this poll, the Democrat's lead doubles, from the 5 points we report here, to 10 points.

SurveyUSA does not defend including uniquely motivated voters as "right" and does not criticize the approach other pollsters take (of excluding such voters) as "wrong." Rather, SurveyUSA observes that there are different ways to draw a lasso around likely voters in 2010, and depending on how the pollster does it in MN-01, DFL incumbent Walz is up by 5 points, up by 10 points, or up by some number of points between 5 and 10.

In MN-01, for Governor, it's DFL candidate Mark Dayton 43%, Republican Tom Emmer 35%, Independence Party candidate Tom Horner 13%. Importantly: when the uniquely motivated 2010 voters are excluded from the Governor contest, the results do not change. Dayton leads by 8 points with or without the uniquely motivated voters. SurveyUSA infers that the uniquely motivated 2010 voters have anger directed more at Washington DC than at St. Paul.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 registered voters from Minnesota's 1st Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/12/10 through 10/14/10 using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle. Of the registered voters, 584 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ...Republican Randy Demmer? DFL candidate Tim Walz? Independence Party candidate Steven Wilson? Or Independent Lars Johnson?
584 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceVote in Midterms?Enthusiasm 2010 Vs PriorParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeVote For HouseVote For GovernorMost Important Issue
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KRandy DeTim WalzEmmer (RDayton (Horner (EconomyHealth CFederal
Randy Demmer (R)42%44%40%51%39%42%42%42%42%41%******54%37%44%60%30%33%81%12%36%75%25%6%79%7%45%40%41%43%64%21%50%31%42%43%100%0%89%11%27%41%35%71%
Tim Walz (DFL)47%45%48%43%49%48%44%47%46%47%******30%52%47%33%52%56%12%82%44%14%64%82%10%87%42%40%50%44%26%68%39%58%46%48%0%100%7%84%42%48%58%20%
Steven Wilson (IP)4%5%4%3%8%4%3%6%4%4%******6%4%4%4%6%4%3%2%10%4%5%6%6%2%5%6%4%5%3%6%6%3%4%4%0%0%1%2%21%4%3%4%
Lars Johnson (I)2%2%1%2%0%3%3%1%3%2%******2%2%2%1%3%2%1%1%4%1%2%2%2%1%2%4%2%2%2%1%2%2%2%2%0%0%1%1%4%2%0%1%
Undecided5%3%7%1%5%4%8%4%6%5%******8%5%3%3%10%4%4%2%7%5%3%4%3%3%7%10%4%6%5%5%4%5%7%3%0%0%3%1%6%5%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%11%26%34%30%37%63%95%2%2%2%14%51%35%34%17%48%32%36%28%38%42%15%29%33%26%12%48%52%48%49%55%42%36%64%42%47%35%43%13%60%10%9%
 
 
If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Tom Emmer? DFL candidate Mark Dayton? Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? Or some other candidate?
584 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceVote in Midterms?Enthusiasm 2010 Vs PriorParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeVote For HouseVote For GovernorMost Important Issue
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KRandy DeTim WalzEmmer (RDayton (Horner (EconomyHealth CFederal
Emmer (R)35%37%33%27%34%37%36%32%37%35%******36%32%40%52%26%27%75%4%30%68%18%4%72%5%38%25%37%34%57%16%41%28%34%37%74%5%100%0%0%35%26%69%
Dayton (DFL)43%39%47%39%46%43%43%44%43%44%******44%45%42%35%44%50%7%81%38%14%59%79%8%78%40%45%44%43%25%60%37%53%46%43%11%78%0%100%0%44%59%12%
Horner (IP)13%17%9%17%12%14%11%14%13%13%******9%14%13%7%17%16%10%7%24%11%17%6%13%12%14%15%15%12%10%16%15%12%11%15%8%12%0%0%100%13%9%16%
Other5%6%5%14%5%4%4%7%4%4%******6%5%3%4%8%4%4%5%6%4%4%9%5%4%4%9%2%7%6%4%6%4%6%4%5%4%0%0%0%5%1%2%
Undecided3%2%5%3%3%2%5%3%3%3%******5%3%1%1%5%3%3%2%2%3%2%1%2%1%5%6%2%4%2%3%1%4%4%1%2%1%0%0%0%2%5%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%11%26%34%30%37%63%95%2%2%2%14%51%35%34%17%48%32%36%28%38%42%15%29%33%26%12%48%52%48%49%55%42%36%64%42%47%35%43%13%60%10%9%
 
 
3Which one of the following is the most important issue facing the United States? The economy? The environment? The war on terror? Health care? Immigration? Education? The federal deficit? Or some other issue?
532 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceVote in Midterms?Enthusiasm 2010 Vs PriorParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeVote For HouseVote For GovernorMost Important Issue
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KRandy DeTim WalzEmmer (RDayton (Horner (EconomyHealth CFederal
Economy60%61%60%60%68%58%56%66%57%60%******68%64%53%62%63%58%59%61%62%60%62%57%61%57%61%66%61%60%58%63%61%60%55%63%59%61%60%62%59%100%0%0%
Environment1%2%1%2%0%2%2%1%2%2%******0%2%1%1%3%1%1%3%0%0%2%3%0%4%0%0%2%1%0%3%1%2%2%1%0%2%0%3%0%0%0%0%
War On Terror5%5%4%0%3%4%8%2%6%4%******5%5%4%4%5%5%6%4%3%5%5%3%3%4%7%4%3%6%5%3%3%5%6%3%5%3%5%4%5%0%0%0%
Health Care10%8%13%9%6%11%14%7%13%11%******10%10%11%11%11%10%8%13%8%7%10%18%5%14%11%12%10%11%9%13%8%13%14%9%9%13%8%14%7%0%100%0%
Immigration4%4%3%4%4%3%4%4%4%4%******6%3%4%5%2%4%3%1%7%5%3%3%6%3%3%1%3%4%4%4%4%4%6%3%3%3%3%3%6%0%0%0%
Education5%4%6%15%7%3%2%10%2%5%******4%5%5%3%6%6%1%10%4%1%7%7%0%9%3%8%6%4%3%6%5%4%3%6%2%8%1%7%8%0%0%0%
Federal Deficit9%12%7%6%9%11%9%8%10%9%******3%7%15%10%8%9%16%3%10%16%6%3%19%5%8%2%10%9%14%5%12%6%8%11%16%4%18%3%11%0%0%100%
Other3%3%2%2%2%4%1%2%3%3%******0%2%4%3%1%3%4%1%4%5%1%3%6%1%2%0%3%2%5%1%2%3%4%2%4%1%5%1%1%0%0%0%
Not Sure3%2%3%2%1%3%3%2%3%3%******3%3%2%1%2%4%2%4%2%2%3%3%0%3%4%6%2%3%2%3%2%3%4%2%1%4%1%3%2%0%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%10%25%35%30%35%65%96%2%1%1%14%50%36%35%17%48%32%36%29%37%43%15%29%34%25%12%49%51%48%49%55%42%36%64%42%47%36%43%13%60%10%9%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.