Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21535
 
In MN, Franken Approval Soars, But He Still Faces Tough Re-Elect Opposition from Republican Mike McFadden;
For Gov, Incumbent Dayton Has Hands Full with Republican Challenger Johnson; Opposition to MNSure Grows:

In Minnesota, incumbent DFL candidates lead today by 9 points each in contests for Governor and US Senate, according to the latest KSTP-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Al Franken tops 50%, and leads Republican Mike McFadden 51% to 42%. Mark Dayton gets to 49%, and leads Republican Jeff Johnson 49% to 40%. The 11/04/14 election is in 10 weeks.

Governor Dayton's job approval is Plus 14 today: 51% of registered voters approve of the job Dayton is doing, 37% disapprove. Among Democrats, Dayton's approval is 8:1. Among Republicans, Dayton's disapproval is 7:2.

Senator Franken's job approval is today the highest it has been in 5 years of SurveyUSA measurement. Franken today is at Plus 21: 56% approve of the job he is doing, compared to 35% who disapprove. Change comes from Independents, where for the first time since 2009, Franken's approval is higher than disapproval, and from Democrats, where Franken's approval soars to 90%.

Senator Amy Klobuchar's job approval today is Plus 32, higher than Franken's, but less newsworthy only because that's where Klobuchar's job approval has consistently been since SurveyUSA and KSTP began measuring it in 2007, and because Klobuchar is not up for re-election in 2014.

Barack Obama's job approval is at 38% today, the 2nd lowest recorded in 11 KSTP measurements going back to Obama's inauguration. Obama's disapproval is at 52% today, the 2nd highest recorded in 11 KSTP measurements going back to Obama's inauguration. When disapproval is subtracted from approval, Obama's Net Approval is at Minus 14 today.

There is effectively no change in sentiment for the Minnesota House of Representatives. Today, 45% say they will vote for a Republican, unchanged from 2 months ago. 43% say they will vote for a Democrat, up a nominal 1 point from 2 months ago.

The Minnesota state legislature remains under water, as it has going back to 2008. Today: 50% of adults disapprove of the legislature, 27% approve.

3:1 opposition to a new office building for the Minnesota state Senate is largely unchanged over the past 10 weeks: today 66% disapprove of the project, 21% approve.

Disapproval of MN's health insurance exchange, which is called MNSure, is growing. Today, MNSure is Minus 21, compared to Minus 13 four months ago.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of MN adults 08/19/14 through 08/21/14. Of the adults, 725 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 600 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 midterm general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Jeff Johnson? DFL candidate Mark Dayton? Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet? Or some other candidate?
600 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Jeff Johnson (R)40%44%36%23%43%42%45%36%43%85%5%40%80%27%8%40%39%41%35%42%42%30%43%37%39%49%44%
Mark Dayton (DFL)49%44%53%49%51%47%48%50%48%11%89%37%13%58%87%52%46%49%51%48%49%57%46%52%45%43%42%
Hannah Nicollet (IP)3%3%3%11%1%2%1%4%2%0%2%7%2%4%2%1%4%3%5%2%2%3%3%2%5%2%6%
Other3%3%3%3%4%2%3%4%2%1%2%5%3%3%1%4%3%2%4%3%1%1%3%3%3%2%2%
Undecided5%6%5%14%1%7%3%6%5%3%1%10%2%8%2%3%7%5%6%5%5%8%5%5%9%3%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%14%26%35%25%40%60%30%37%25%32%42%19%17%40%43%27%36%37%22%78%58%15%14%13%
 
If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Mike McFadden? DFL candidate Al Franken? Independence Party candidate Steve Carlson? Or some other candidate?
600 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Mike McFadden (R)42%48%36%28%45%41%46%39%43%87%6%44%80%30%9%43%39%44%36%44%43%31%45%40%42%43%48%
Al Franken (DFL)51%43%58%54%51%49%52%52%50%8%91%43%12%62%88%54%50%50%58%47%50%58%49%53%51%47%46%
Steve Carlson (IP)2%2%2%5%1%2%1%3%2%2%2%4%3%1%2%0%4%1%2%2%2%2%2%2%0%4%1%
Other2%4%1%8%1%2%1%3%2%1%1%5%3%2%1%1%3%2%2%4%0%5%2%2%5%2%2%
Undecided3%3%3%5%1%6%1%3%4%2%1%4%2%4%0%1%4%3%2%3%5%4%3%4%2%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%14%26%35%25%40%60%30%37%25%32%42%19%17%40%43%27%36%37%22%78%58%15%14%13%
 
Which of these issues will be most important to you in deciding how to vote this November? Taxes? Jobs? Education? Transportation? Health care? Or something else?
600 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Taxes26%30%23%22%29%26%27%27%26%39%15%28%40%25%10%25%26%28%21%27%30%31%25%25%21%38%26%
Jobs20%19%20%22%19%19%20%20%19%19%23%21%16%22%24%22%21%18%24%17%20%21%19%22%17%14%19%
Education13%10%16%22%19%10%7%20%8%4%22%10%2%17%23%6%11%18%12%11%16%20%11%15%18%7%7%
Transportation2%4%1%5%2%2%2%3%2%3%3%2%2%3%3%2%1%4%1%3%3%3%2%3%0%2%4%
Health Care28%26%30%17%24%30%37%21%33%26%31%25%27%27%25%37%28%25%34%30%21%19%31%26%37%28%28%
Something Else7%8%5%8%5%7%6%6%7%6%4%8%9%3%8%6%7%6%6%5%7%4%7%5%6%8%11%
Not Sure4%3%5%5%2%7%1%3%4%3%3%6%3%4%7%2%6%2%2%6%3%3%4%4%2%3%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%14%26%35%25%40%60%30%37%25%32%42%19%17%40%43%27%36%37%22%78%58%15%14%13%
 
All 134 members of the Minnesota House of Representatives are up for re-election in November. If the election were held today, would you most likely vote for a Republican or Democrat in your local Minnesota House of Representatives race? Or would you vote for a member of another party?
600 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Republican45%49%40%33%49%45%47%43%46%97%5%45%87%31%9%46%43%46%38%48%46%37%47%43%44%50%47%
Democrat43%38%47%47%39%41%47%42%44%2%91%24%6%51%85%46%41%43%53%41%39%42%43%45%42%37%41%
Other5%7%2%12%3%5%2%6%4%0%1%15%3%6%2%4%5%4%5%5%4%6%4%4%5%3%7%
Undecided8%5%10%8%10%9%4%9%7%1%2%17%4%12%3%4%11%7%5%6%11%14%6%8%9%10%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%14%26%35%25%40%60%30%37%25%32%42%19%17%40%43%27%36%37%22%78%58%15%14%13%
 
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
725 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Approve38%36%40%42%35%36%42%38%39%3%75%28%7%44%72%39%36%39%42%37%37%41%37%42%33%34%32%
Disapprove52%56%48%46%53%53%53%51%53%92%17%56%87%43%19%51%53%51%45%55%53%43%55%48%58%57%58%
Not Sure10%8%12%12%12%11%5%12%9%4%8%16%6%13%9%10%11%9%13%8%10%17%8%11%8%9%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%17%26%34%22%44%56%28%36%28%30%43%19%19%40%42%28%36%36%26%74%58%14%14%14%
 
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing as Governor?
725 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Approve51%47%55%54%52%47%54%53%50%22%83%39%19%60%79%50%51%52%50%51%53%58%49%55%50%40%48%
Disapprove37%41%33%30%37%39%39%34%39%71%10%40%69%27%12%37%37%37%34%39%36%24%41%35%37%44%40%
Not Sure12%12%12%15%12%14%8%13%11%7%7%21%12%13%9%13%12%11%16%10%10%18%10%11%14%17%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%17%26%34%22%44%56%28%36%28%30%43%19%19%40%42%28%36%36%26%74%58%14%14%14%
 
Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job the state legislature is doing?
725 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Approve27%27%27%36%25%26%22%29%25%13%43%24%10%34%41%24%25%30%26%25%31%38%23%30%26%20%22%
Disapprove50%55%45%37%50%52%57%45%54%69%29%56%74%40%33%56%49%49%50%51%48%33%56%47%54%51%59%
Not Sure23%18%28%27%25%21%21%26%21%18%28%21%16%26%25%20%26%22%24%24%21%29%21%23%20%29%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%17%26%34%22%44%56%28%36%28%30%43%19%19%40%42%28%36%36%26%74%58%14%14%14%
 
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Al Franken is doing as United States Senator?
725 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Approve56%50%62%61%53%55%59%56%56%23%90%48%24%65%86%58%56%56%63%53%56%62%55%59%57%49%51%
Disapprove35%41%30%22%41%37%37%33%37%71%7%39%70%24%10%34%36%36%26%41%37%25%39%34%34%34%44%
Not Sure8%9%7%17%6%9%4%10%7%6%4%14%6%10%5%9%8%8%11%7%7%14%6%7%9%17%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%17%26%34%22%44%56%28%36%28%30%43%19%19%40%42%28%36%36%26%74%58%14%14%14%
 
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Amy Klobuchar is doing as United States Senator?
725 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Approve59%54%64%47%52%64%69%50%66%39%79%52%36%66%77%57%58%61%56%60%62%48%63%62%60%52%54%
Disapprove27%33%20%30%29%25%24%29%24%48%10%28%51%17%13%25%26%27%27%26%25%25%27%25%30%28%28%
Not Sure14%13%16%22%19%12%7%20%10%13%11%20%13%16%10%17%15%12%17%14%14%27%10%13%10%19%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%17%26%34%22%44%56%28%36%28%30%43%19%19%40%42%28%36%36%26%74%58%14%14%14%
 
Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of Minnesota's health insurance exchange called "MNSure" (Minn-Sure)?
725 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Approve27%26%28%23%31%26%28%28%27%7%47%26%7%31%50%28%28%26%30%28%25%29%27%30%23%23%26%
Disapprove48%52%44%57%48%45%46%52%45%74%26%48%75%39%27%44%48%50%44%49%49%47%48%47%47%45%56%
Not Sure25%22%27%20%21%29%26%20%28%19%28%26%18%29%23%28%24%24%26%24%26%24%25%23%30%32%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%17%26%34%22%44%56%28%36%28%30%43%19%19%40%42%28%36%36%26%74%58%14%14%14%
 
The Minnesota Legislature approved the construction of a new $77-million dollar office building to provide new offices for the Minnesota Senate. Do you approve or disapprove of this project?
800 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Approve21%26%17%21%20%21%24%20%22%8%34%20%10%24%37%15%14%32%14%25%25%20%22%25%16%20%14%
Disapprove66%61%70%62%66%66%67%65%67%84%49%66%81%61%49%68%71%59%68%62%66%60%68%63%73%65%71%
Not Sure13%13%12%17%14%12%9%15%11%8%17%13%9%15%14%17%14%9%18%13%9%20%10%12%11%15%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%20%27%32%21%47%53%27%36%29%29%44%19%22%39%39%30%35%34%27%73%57%14%14%15%