Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15352
 
3 Weeks From VA Dem Primary, Deeds Gains Ground, But McAuliffe Remains On Top; Republican Leads All Dems in General Election Match-ups: Former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe continues to run strongest of the 3 candidates for Democratic nomination for Virginia Governor, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WJLA-TV Washington DC. In a vote today, 05/20/09, three weeks to the Primary, it's McAuliffe 37%, Creigh Deeds 26%, Brian Moran 22%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll three weeks ago, McAuliffe and Moran are flat, Deeds is up. 57% of likely Democratic Primary voters today say they may change their mind -- down from 64% three weeks ago - but high enough to describe a fluid electorate still evaluating its options.

McAuliffe, who ran Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign, is 11 points atop Deeds, a state senator -- but Deeds is the only candidate with momentum, and today leads McAuliffe in Central Virginia by 12 points, a 19-point swing to Deeds in the past 3 weeks. Deeds and McAuliffe remain tied in the Shenandoah; McAuliffe remains in command in the southeastern portion of the state. In Northern Virginia, Moran's 23-point lead three weeks ago is today a 10-point lead.

Virginia voters do not register with party affiliations, and any voter may vote in the Democratic primary. In SurveyUSA's turnout model, 63% of Democratic Primary voters are Democrats, 25% are Independent, 12% are Republican. Deeds leads among Republicans and among the 19% of Primary voters who say they are politically conservative. McAuliffe leads by 16 points among Democrats, down from 23 points 3 weeks ago. Among Liberals, McAuliffe is gaining ground.

 
Republican Bob McDonnell Holds Steady Atop All Democratic Rivals in November General Election Match-ups: In hypothetical November general election match-ups for the open Virginia Governor's seat, Republican Bob McDonnell today edges each of the 3 Democrats in results essentially unchanged from those three weeks ago. Among registered VA voters, McDonnell defeats Deeds and McAuliffe by 6 points each, and defeats Moran by 10. Virginia's incumbent Democratic Governor, Tim Kaine, is term limited, and not seeking re-election.
 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 Virginia adults 05/17/09 through 05/19/09. Of them, 1,692 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 502 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the June 9 Democratic Primary.
 
If the Democratic Primary for Virginia Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Creigh Deeds? Terry McAuliffe? Or Brian Moran?
502 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
Deeds26%31%22%28%29%23%26%29%24%28%27%**11%36%25%26%36%26%24%26%29%30%26%23%41%22%31%26%38%23%26%35%28%25%33%10%19%43%
McAuliffe37%34%39%25%35%45%38%32%42%37%41%**29%28%41%30%26%43%40%39%34%37%38%37%28%43%36%39%33%40%39%34%41%34%34%33%52%31%
Moran22%21%23%25%23%20%22%23%21%24%15%**23%21%22%24%24%21%25%24%21%21%23%27%20%23%20%23%14%25%22%17%26%19%12%43%16%15%
Other / Undecided14%13%16%22%13%12%14%16%13%11%17%**38%14%11%19%14%10%11%11%16%12%13%14%10%12%14%12%15%12%13%14%5%22%21%14%13%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%48%52%17%34%30%19%51%49%65%26%1%7%12%63%25%19%47%25%55%45%50%32%18%30%63%43%53%33%67%76%18%43%57%22%28%23%28%
 
 
Regardless of what you told us about the June 9th primary, thinking ahead now to the GENERAL election in November... If the only two names on the ballot for Governor of Virginia were Republican Bob McDonnell and ... Democrat Creigh Deeds, who would you vote for?
1692 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)46%53%39%43%47%47%45%45%46%53%17%**41%85%10%45%77%36%13%49%42%50%43%37%68%28%56%35%39%49%14%82%26%19%48%41%43%50%
Deeds (D)40%34%45%37%42%40%38%40%39%33%69%**29%7%77%31%15%47%76%37%43%35%42%49%19%59%31%49%44%38%70%8%63%66%37%41%44%37%
Undecided15%13%16%20%11%14%17%15%15%14%15%**30%8%13%25%8%17%11%13%15%14%14%13%13%13%12%15%17%13%16%10%12%15%16%17%12%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%23%33%26%18%56%44%74%18%3%5%35%38%25%34%44%15%55%45%53%28%20%44%48%49%47%32%68%50%44%43%57%26%26%21%27%
 
 
What if the only two names on the November ballot were ... Bob McDonnell and Democrat Terry McAuliffe?
1692 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)46%53%40%44%48%47%46%46%46%54%18%**34%86%9%49%80%35%15%50%42%52%42%37%70%29%57%36%38%51%14%83%26%18%49%41%43%52%
McAuliffe (D)40%35%45%38%42%42%38%40%40%33%69%**33%7%80%28%13%51%74%38%43%36%43%50%18%61%31%51%45%38%72%8%68%67%37%45%46%35%
Undecided13%11%15%18%10%11%16%13%13%12%13%**32%7%11%23%8%14%10%11%14%12%14%13%12%11%12%13%16%11%14%9%7%15%15%14%11%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%23%33%26%18%56%44%74%18%3%5%35%38%25%34%44%15%55%45%53%28%20%44%48%49%47%32%68%50%44%43%57%26%26%21%27%
 
 
What if it was Bob McDonnell against Democrat Brian Moran?
1692 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)47%55%40%46%48%48%46%47%47%54%21%**34%84%14%47%81%36%16%50%45%53%43%38%70%30%59%36%41%50%16%82%32%17%49%41%49%51%
Moran (D)37%32%41%37%41%36%32%39%34%32%56%**37%8%69%31%10%47%72%37%37%31%40%51%17%57%30%47%38%38%67%8%57%65%34%47%36%32%
Undecided16%12%19%17%11%16%22%14%18%14%22%**30%8%17%22%9%17%11%13%17%16%16%11%13%14%12%17%21%12%17%10%11%18%17%13%16%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%23%33%26%18%56%44%74%18%3%5%35%38%25%34%44%15%55%45%53%28%20%44%48%49%47%32%68%50%44%43%57%26%26%21%27%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.