Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20071
 
In Oregon: Marijuana Still Trails Narrowly; Sec'y of State Tilts Toward Democrat Brown; State Labor Commissioner Contest Too-Close-to-Call:

5 Days until votes are counted in Oregon, Democrat Kate Brown has a 48% to 40% advantage over Republican Knute Buehler in the contest for Secretary of State, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. Brown's lead comes from a 24-point gender gap: Buehler leads by 5 among men. Brown leads by 19 among women. Brown holds 81% of the Democratic base. Buehler holds 79% of the Republican base. Independents split. Buehler leads in rural Oregon. Brown leads in greater Portland.

In the election for State Labor Commissioner, Bruce Starr and Brad Avakian are tightly bunched in a comparatively low-interest contest where 40% of likely voters are undecided heading into the campaign's final weekend. Starr gets 31% today, Avakian gets 29%. Starr is supported by the less educated. Avakian is supported by those with a 4-year college degree.

Measure 80, which would de-criminalize marijuana, trails today 49% to 42%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, both "Yes" and "No" are up 6 points. No had led by 7. No still leads by 7.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/28/12 through 10/30/12. Of the adults, 617 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 566 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

 
1If the election for Oregon Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for (candidate names rotated) ...? Republican Knute Buehler? Democrat Kate Brown? Or one of the other candidates?
548 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanWhen Will You Vote?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineAlready Before EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Knute Buehler (R)40%48%34%36%40%41%45%38%43%37%42%40%43%27%79%11%41%83%36%79%37%6%41%41%39%34%45%43%36%49%
Kate Brown (D)48%43%53%50%44%50%49%47%50%47%49%52%44%53%12%81%41%12%53%15%50%83%43%46%53%51%46%48%51%44%
Other4%3%4%3%5%4%3%4%4%1%5%4%4%2%4%2%6%4%4%3%5%3%4%2%5%3%3%5%4%3%
Undecided7%6%9%12%11%4%3%11%4%15%4%4%10%19%5%6%12%1%7%3%8%8%11%10%3%12%6%4%9%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%23%27%29%21%50%50%29%71%49%44%7%33%43%24%7%87%28%40%27%17%43%40%40%37%24%65%35%
 
 
2If the election for State Labor Commissioner were today, who would you vote for (candidate names rotated) ...? Bruce Starr? Or Brad Avakian?
548 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanWhen Will You Vote?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineAlready Before EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Bruce Starr31%35%27%32%32%28%33%32%30%27%33%35%29%18%47%18%33%68%28%50%31%14%42%31%27%30%34%30%31%32%
Brad Avakian29%29%29%23%24%36%33%24%35%25%31%37%21%32%16%42%24%18%32%15%32%41%17%27%37%26%29%36%32%24%
Undecided40%35%44%44%44%36%34%44%35%48%36%29%50%50%37%40%43%14%40%35%36%45%41%42%36%44%37%34%37%44%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%23%27%29%21%50%50%29%71%49%44%7%33%43%24%7%87%28%40%27%17%43%40%40%37%24%65%35%
 
 
On Measure 80, which would allow adults to grow and possess marijuana, and allow state-licensed stores to grow and sell marijuana to adults, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
566 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanWhen Will You Vote?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineAlready Before EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Yes42%45%39%49%43%43%29%46%37%52%37%43%41%35%24%50%50%28%44%26%38%67%42%44%39%47%39%39%42%42%
No49%47%50%39%46%48%65%43%55%38%53%53%44%46%68%39%41%66%48%68%52%22%46%48%51%42%55%50%48%51%
Not Certain10%8%11%11%11%9%6%11%8%9%10%3%15%19%8%11%10%7%9%6%10%11%12%9%10%11%6%11%11%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%24%27%28%20%51%49%30%70%48%45%7%33%42%25%7%87%28%41%26%17%43%39%40%37%23%66%34%
 
 
On Measure 82, which would allow privately owned casinos, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
566 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanWhen Will You Vote?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineAlready Before EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Yes31%37%24%39%28%33%21%33%28%40%27%33%28%36%32%27%35%36%31%33%34%24%34%33%27%32%31%30%30%32%
No58%56%60%47%58%57%71%53%63%46%63%64%53%48%58%61%53%59%59%56%55%66%43%56%66%55%58%62%60%55%
Not Certain12%7%16%14%14%10%8%14%9%14%10%3%19%16%10%12%12%5%10%11%11%11%23%11%7%13%11%9%11%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%24%27%28%20%51%49%30%70%48%45%7%33%42%25%7%87%28%41%26%17%43%39%40%37%23%66%34%
 
 
On Measure 83, which would allow a privately owned casino in Wood Village, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
566 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanWhen Will You Vote?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineAlready Before EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Yes31%36%26%41%25%34%22%33%29%41%26%34%28%27%33%28%33%38%31%32%35%23%35%33%27%32%30%31%30%33%
No57%55%59%45%59%55%72%52%62%46%62%64%51%50%58%59%52%49%59%58%51%66%46%54%65%54%57%61%58%54%
Not Certain12%10%15%15%15%11%7%15%10%13%12%3%21%24%10%13%15%13%11%9%14%11%19%13%9%14%13%8%12%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%24%27%28%20%51%49%30%70%48%45%7%33%42%25%7%87%28%41%26%17%43%39%40%37%23%66%34%
 
 
On Measure 85, I need to read you a complete description that includes all of the language that appears on the ballot. The title of the ballot measure says: Amends Constitution: Allocates corporate income/excise tax "kicker" refund to additionally fund K through 12 public education. A Yes vote allocates the corporate income and excise tax "kicker" refund to the General Fund to provide additional funding for K through 12 public education. A NO vote retains existing corporate income and excise tax "kicker" that requires refund to corporations when revenue exceeds estimated collections by two percent or more. Based on this description, will you vote yes? Or vote No? on Measure 85?
566 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanWhen Will You Vote?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineAlready Before EON ElectRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Yes51%50%52%59%47%51%46%52%49%48%52%57%44%50%36%60%54%24%55%33%52%70%47%46%58%50%50%53%51%50%
No32%36%27%18%33%36%40%26%38%26%34%34%31%23%47%20%31%69%28%53%29%14%30%33%31%27%35%35%32%32%
Undecided18%14%21%23%20%13%14%21%13%26%14%10%25%27%17%19%15%7%17%14%18%17%23%21%11%23%15%12%17%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%24%27%28%20%51%49%30%70%48%45%7%33%42%25%7%87%28%41%26%17%43%39%40%37%23%66%34%