Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19721
 
In Nevada's Newly Drawn 4th Congressional District, Republican Tarkanian Has Slight Advantage over Democrat Horsford:

In an election today, 09/20/12, for the U.S. House of Representatives from Nevada's 4th Congressional District, Republican Danny Tarkanian has a narrow 45% to 42% advantage over Democrat Steven Horsford, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KLAS-TV and the Las Vegas Review Journal.

* Horsford leads among women, but Tarkanian leads by twice as much among men.
* Horsford leads among moderates, but Tarkanian leads among independents.
* Horsford leads in union households, but Tarkanian leads in non-unon households.
* Horsford leads among voters not in the Tea Party, but Tarkanian overpowers Horsford among Tea Party voters.
* The candidates run even in the Clark County portion of the district. Tarkanian leads in the parts of the district outside of Clark County.
* Horsford leads in the suburban portions of the district, but Tarkanian leads in the portions of the district considered urban and rural.

* By 42% to 38%, voters say Tarkanian will fight harder to create jobs for Nevadans.
* By 38% to 34%, voters say Tarkanian has more personal integrity.
* By 38% to 32%, voters say Tarkanian better understands the difference between right and wrong.
* By 28% to 25%, voters say Horsford thinks he is above the law.

* Tarkanian has a Plus 14 Net Favorability Rating: 35% of voters see him favorably, compared to 21% who see him unfavorably.
* Horsford has a Plus 8 Net Favorability Rating: 33% of voters see him favorably, compared to 25% who see him unfavorably.

President Obama carries the newly drawn 4th district by 9 points today. By contrast, those same voters tell SurveyUSA that they voted for Obama by 18 points in 2008. This means: Although Obama is carrying the district in 2012, he is under-performing his strong 2008 showing. Hispanics in the district vote 2:1 for the Democrat Obama, but in the race for Congress, Hispanics vote 4:3 for the Republican Tarkanian.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 registered voters from NV-04 09/18/12 and 09/19/12. Of the registered voters, 646 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were called on their cell phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the phone number, secured respondent cooperation, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent, logged the respondent's answers, and remained on the line until the interview was complete. Registration-based sample for both landline and cell-phone portions was provided by Aristotle of Washington DC.

 
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Nevada's 4th Congressional District were today, would you vote for ... (candidate names rotated) Republican Danny Tarkanian? Democrat Steven Horsford? Or some other candidate?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnionEducationIncomeCountyUrbanicity2008 Vote2010 Vote2012 Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicIndependDemocratYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KClarkOtherUrbanSuburbanRuralBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratMitt RomBarack O
Danny Tarkanian (R)45%52%37%44%40%54%40%41%47%53%13%42%37%37%48%87%53%11%94%40%78%36%8%40%46%41%46%46%39%45%53%44%49%50%39%62%17%86%87%12%90%7%
Steven Horsford (D)42%39%44%40%38%36%51%39%43%37%74%34%48%40%42%4%32%73%5%46%13%52%70%53%39%48%37%44%47%45%39%43%33%40%44%30%70%4%4%73%3%77%
Other6%5%7%6%5%6%7%5%6%6%5%6%5%3%7%6%8%5%1%6%4%8%3%4%6%6%7%5%10%7%3%5%13%7%6%5%4%6%6%4%5%5%
Undecided8%4%12%10%17%5%2%15%3%4%9%18%10%19%3%3%6%11%0%8%4%4%19%3%9%5%10%4%4%3%5%8%5%2%10%3%9%4%3%10%3%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%25%32%31%38%62%62%12%18%8%26%74%33%21%45%9%90%38%35%21%21%78%17%43%40%24%37%39%83%16%35%48%16%55%37%39%47%43%52%
 
 
Is your opinion of Danny Tarkanian ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnionEducationIncomeCountyUrbanicity2008 Vote2010 Vote2012 Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicIndependDemocratYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KClarkOtherUrbanSuburbanRuralBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratMitt RomBarack O
Favorable35%43%26%32%27%41%36%29%38%37%11%43%32%34%35%66%38%11%79%30%64%24%7%30%36%38%35%34%32%33%42%34%39%37%29%42%16%63%64%13%65%9%
Unfavorable21%22%21%16%21%19%26%19%23%23%26%12%25%9%26%9%14%34%7%23%8%29%32%28%20%22%21%22%24%25%20%22%17%21%24%19%31%7%8%32%7%34%
Neutral30%28%33%42%26%30%29%31%29%30%38%25%28%34%29%20%42%31%12%32%22%36%35%31%30%27%27%36%33%31%29%29%36%32%27%34%34%25%24%35%24%36%
No Opinion14%7%21%10%26%10%9%21%10%10%24%20%15%22%10%6%6%23%3%15%6%11%26%11%14%13%18%8%11%11%9%14%8%10%19%5%19%5%5%19%5%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%25%32%31%38%62%62%12%18%8%26%74%33%21%45%9%90%38%35%21%21%78%17%43%40%24%37%39%83%16%35%48%16%55%37%39%47%43%52%
 
 
Is your opinion of Steven Horsford ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnionEducationIncomeCountyUrbanicity2008 Vote2010 Vote2012 Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicIndependDemocratYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KClarkOtherUrbanSuburbanRuralBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratMitt RomBarack O
Favorable33%28%38%35%26%30%41%29%35%27%66%29%37%32%33%6%22%58%9%36%11%42%55%36%32%37%27%38%40%34%31%35%24%33%33%27%55%4%4%60%4%59%
Unfavorable25%33%17%28%23%29%23%25%26%29%8%24%23%13%30%46%37%5%38%24%45%20%5%23%26%19%26%28%21%28%29%25%30%31%23%37%10%46%53%7%49%3%
Neutral25%26%23%25%21%27%25%22%26%27%14%26%20%28%24%30%27%19%40%23%25%28%17%30%24%32%26%22%24%24%27%26%23%22%25%21%20%31%27%18%29%21%
No Opinion17%13%22%12%30%14%12%24%13%16%12%22%20%27%13%18%15%17%13%17%19%11%23%11%18%12%21%12%14%13%13%15%22%14%19%15%15%19%16%15%18%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%25%32%31%38%62%62%12%18%8%26%74%33%21%45%9%90%38%35%21%21%78%17%43%40%24%37%39%83%16%35%48%16%55%37%39%47%43%52%
 
 
What one issue should your Congressman focus on ahead of all others ...? Jobs? Abortion? Taxes? Health care? The federal debt? Education? Immigration? Housing? Or some other issue?
641 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnionEducationIncomeCountyUrbanicity2008 Vote2010 Vote2012 Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicIndependDemocratYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KClarkOtherUrbanSuburbanRuralBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratMitt RomBarack O
Jobs48%50%47%48%43%50%51%45%51%51%52%35%53%41%51%48%47%49%34%50%50%53%38%48%48%58%45%47%50%56%42%47%50%51%48%45%51%47%45%50%46%52%
Abortion2%2%3%0%5%2%2%3%2%2%6%0%4%2%3%3%2%2%2%2%3%2%3%4%2%4%3%1%3%2%3%2%6%1%3%5%2%4%3%3%3%2%
Taxes4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%5%3%3%3%1%5%5%6%2%3%4%4%6%2%5%4%2%3%6%3%6%4%4%5%5%3%7%4%4%5%3%5%3%
Health Care12%7%17%5%15%10%14%12%12%10%7%25%9%19%10%6%7%19%7%13%5%8%31%6%14%11%14%11%15%10%5%13%11%11%13%11%17%7%6%19%6%18%
Federal Debt17%24%8%18%12%21%15%14%18%17%5%26%11%22%15%27%25%5%45%14%29%13%4%13%18%12%20%16%10%15%26%18%14%15%15%20%7%27%31%6%27%5%
Education8%3%14%17%11%6%5%13%6%7%18%7%6%7%8%3%4%14%0%9%2%10%14%11%7%7%6%9%10%5%11%8%7%10%8%5%11%4%2%12%3%13%
Immigration2%2%3%5%3%1%2%3%2%2%2%4%2%2%3%4%3%1%4%2%2%3%1%4%2%4%3%2%4%2%2%3%2%2%3%2%1%3%3%0%5%0%
Housing2%2%2%0%4%2%2%3%2%2%4%0%4%3%2%1%1%3%0%2%2%1%6%3%2%2%1%3%2%2%3%2%1%3%2%3%3%1%1%2%1%3%
Other3%4%2%2%4%3%2%3%2%2%4%1%7%3%2%2%3%3%2%3%2%3%0%7%2%1%3%4%2%1%4%3%2%2%3%2%3%2%2%4%2%3%
Not Sure1%1%1%0%1%0%2%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%1%1%3%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%25%32%31%38%62%63%12%18%8%25%75%33%21%45%9%90%38%35%21%21%78%17%43%40%24%37%39%83%16%36%48%16%55%37%39%47%43%52%
 
 
Who will fight harder to create jobs for Nevadans?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnionEducationIncomeCountyUrbanicity2008 Vote2010 Vote2012 Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicIndependDemocratYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KClarkOtherUrbanSuburbanRuralBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratMitt RomBarack O
Danny Tarkanian (R)42%52%31%38%41%48%38%40%43%49%12%39%34%35%45%81%51%9%93%37%77%31%6%39%43%34%43%44%33%44%49%42%45%46%36%54%15%81%83%10%84%6%
Steven Horsford (D)38%36%40%42%32%31%48%35%39%34%72%28%39%32%40%5%25%68%5%42%13%51%59%51%35%47%36%37%41%43%37%39%34%40%40%33%64%4%3%67%3%70%
Not Sure20%12%29%21%27%20%15%25%18%17%16%33%27%33%15%14%24%23%2%22%10%18%35%10%23%19%21%18%26%13%14%19%21%14%23%13%21%15%13%23%13%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%25%32%31%38%62%62%12%18%8%26%74%33%21%45%9%90%38%35%21%21%78%17%43%40%24%37%39%83%16%35%48%16%55%37%39%47%43%52%
 
 
Who has more personal integrity?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnionEducationIncomeCountyUrbanicity2008 Vote2010 Vote2012 Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicIndependDemocratYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KClarkOtherUrbanSuburbanRuralBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratMitt RomBarack O
Danny Tarkanian (R)38%44%32%32%37%46%34%35%40%43%16%38%30%31%41%75%39%11%89%33%65%29%8%35%39%35%39%39%35%38%42%36%48%40%32%51%15%72%72%11%76%8%
Steven Horsford (D)34%34%33%34%28%27%45%30%36%29%63%27%40%26%36%4%26%59%5%37%11%44%54%42%32%42%32%32%39%38%31%35%26%34%37%29%56%4%3%60%3%62%
Not Sure28%22%35%34%35%28%21%35%24%28%22%34%30%43%23%21%35%30%6%30%24%26%38%23%30%23%29%29%27%24%27%29%27%25%31%20%29%23%25%29%22%30%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%25%32%31%38%62%62%12%18%8%26%74%33%21%45%9%90%38%35%21%21%78%17%43%40%24%37%39%83%16%35%48%16%55%37%39%47%43%52%
 
 
Who better understands the difference between right and wrong?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnionEducationIncomeCountyUrbanicity2008 Vote2010 Vote2012 Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicIndependDemocratYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KClarkOtherUrbanSuburbanRuralBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratMitt RomBarack O
Danny Tarkanian (R)38%48%28%39%35%44%34%37%39%43%13%41%30%30%41%76%43%9%91%33%71%27%6%36%39%33%41%38%35%39%44%37%49%40%34%51%13%73%77%8%76%5%
Steven Horsford (D)32%32%33%37%27%26%42%30%34%28%56%28%37%27%34%5%25%56%5%36%12%43%50%40%31%43%31%31%38%34%32%34%24%33%35%28%54%4%4%57%4%59%
Not Sure29%20%39%24%38%30%24%33%27%28%31%30%33%42%24%19%32%35%3%31%18%30%43%24%30%24%28%31%28%26%24%29%27%26%30%21%33%22%19%35%20%36%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%25%32%31%38%62%62%12%18%8%26%74%33%21%45%9%90%38%35%21%21%78%17%43%40%24%37%39%83%16%35%48%16%55%37%39%47%43%52%
 
 
Who thinks they are above the law?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnionEducationIncomeCountyUrbanicity2008 Vote2010 Vote2012 Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicIndependDemocratYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KClarkOtherUrbanSuburbanRuralBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratMitt RomBarack O
Danny Tarkanian (R)25%25%26%33%20%22%28%25%25%22%47%19%33%18%27%10%23%36%6%27%13%29%39%35%23%24%22%28%31%21%29%26%19%32%25%18%37%10%9%40%9%40%
Steven Horsford (D)28%35%20%32%23%27%30%26%29%30%15%32%21%20%31%43%34%14%42%27%42%26%10%27%28%35%26%27%26%31%29%26%35%28%27%41%17%40%47%14%45%11%
Not Sure47%41%54%35%57%51%41%50%46%49%38%49%46%62%42%47%43%50%53%46%45%45%51%38%49%41%52%44%43%48%42%48%46%41%48%41%46%49%44%46%46%48%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%25%32%31%38%62%62%12%18%8%26%74%33%21%45%9%90%38%35%21%21%78%17%43%40%24%37%39%83%16%35%48%16%55%37%39%47%43%52%
 
 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Or one of the other candidates?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnionEducationIncomeCountyUrbanicity2008 Vote2010 Vote2012 Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicIndependDemocratYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KClarkOtherUrbanSuburbanRuralBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratMitt RomBarack O
Mitt Romney (R)43%51%34%30%37%54%42%35%48%53%8%31%42%30%48%92%46%6%94%38%80%33%3%38%45%40%43%45%38%45%47%42%51%46%38%61%12%92%89%7%100%0%
Barack Obama (D)52%43%62%55%58%43%55%57%49%42%89%58%55%61%49%5%38%93%5%57%14%61%96%57%51%57%50%52%59%51%45%54%41%52%55%34%86%5%4%91%0%100%
Gary Johnson (L)2%3%1%12%1%1%0%5%0%0%0%10%1%6%1%1%9%0%0%2%4%1%0%1%3%0%4%1%0%1%5%2%2%0%4%1%0%0%5%0%0%0%
Other1%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%2%0%0%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%0%3%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%
Undecided2%2%3%1%4%2%2%3%2%3%3%0%1%4%1%1%5%2%0%2%2%3%0%4%2%2%2%1%2%2%2%2%2%1%3%3%2%2%1%1%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%25%32%31%38%62%62%12%18%8%26%74%33%21%45%9%90%38%35%21%21%78%17%43%40%24%37%39%83%16%35%48%16%55%37%39%47%43%52%