Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #18787
 
"Red State" Kansas Poll Results: Romney 9 Points Atop Obama But ... Hold Everything ... Obama 5 Points Atop Gingrich:

Sure, it's early, and yes, a lot will change, but in an preview of the 2012 Presidential election, cell phone voters (those without a home telephone, typically undercounted in opinion polls), vote sufficiently Democrat to keep Mitt Romney to just a single-digit lead over Barack Obama, and, for the moment, cause Obama to defeat Newt Gingrich.

Kansas' 6 electoral votes will almost certainly stay in the Republican column (John McCain carried the state by 15 points in 2008), but in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups between the two Republican front-runners today, 11/22/11, it's:

* Romney 48%.
* Obama 39%.
* Obama 45%.
* Gingrich 40%
* Among respondents who use a home phone, Romney leads Obama by 14. But among respondents who do not use a home phone (the cell-phone respondents), Obama leads Romney by 4, an 18-point difference.

* Among respondents who use a home phone, Gingrich leads Obama by 3 points. But among respondents who do not use a home phone, Obama leads Gingrich by 24 points, a 27-point difference.

* Romney has a Minus 9 favorability rating: 25% see him favorably, 34% see him unfavorably.
* Gingrich has a Minus 22 favorability rating: 25% see him favorably, 45% see him unfavorably.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 600 state of Kansas adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/18/11 through 11/21/11. Of the adults, 510 were registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions. This research was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home telephone (70% of adults, 73% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (30% of adults, 27% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet, or other electronic device. In this survey, cell-phone and home-phone respondents vote similarly.

 
1If there were an election for President today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
510 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KNortheasSoutheasWestern
Obama (D)39%35%43%43%41%32%38%42%35%34%91%44%**46%36%11%74%46%**40%13%47%71%41%37%39%44%38%36%45%36%24%
Romney (R)48%51%44%44%43%58%49%43%53%52%9%41%**42%50%76%18%34%**46%76%38%21%46%48%49%40%50%51%44%49%60%
Undecided13%14%13%13%16%10%14%15%12%14%0%15%**12%14%13%7%20%**13%11%15%8%13%15%13%16%12%13%12%15%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%27%30%23%20%57%43%85%6%5%4%27%73%42%28%30%3%93%35%42%20%20%35%46%31%40%29%53%33%14%
 
 
2If there were an election for President today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
510 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KNortheasSoutheasWestern
Obama (D)45%41%48%53%45%38%41%49%39%39%96%72%**53%41%15%79%55%**46%18%53%77%44%43%45%48%46%41%52%40%27%
Gingrich (R)40%45%35%28%39%53%42%34%48%45%4%13%**29%44%69%12%25%**38%70%28%14%44%36%42%32%41%46%35%42%55%
Undecided15%14%17%19%16%9%17%17%13%16%0%15%**18%15%16%9%20%**16%12%19%9%12%21%13%20%13%13%13%18%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%27%30%23%20%57%43%85%6%5%4%27%73%42%28%30%3%93%35%42%20%20%35%46%31%40%29%53%33%14%
 
 
3If your opinion of Mitt Romney is ...
510 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KNortheasSoutheasWestern
Favorable25%29%21%23%26%23%29%24%26%27%11%31%**21%27%38%14%18%**25%35%25%11%16%23%30%19%25%30%28%22%22%
Unfavorable34%34%35%22%38%42%37%30%40%35%37%13%**24%38%31%44%31%**35%30%35%42%34%35%34%36%31%36%25%43%48%
Neutral30%29%32%34%26%31%31%30%31%29%41%35%**31%30%26%34%31%**29%29%29%35%38%28%29%32%32%26%36%25%24%
No Opinion10%8%12%22%10%4%2%15%3%9%10%21%**24%5%5%8%20%**10%5%11%12%12%13%7%12%11%7%11%10%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%27%30%23%20%57%43%85%6%5%4%27%73%42%28%30%3%93%35%42%20%20%35%46%31%40%29%53%33%14%
 
 
4If your opinion of Newt Gingrich is ...
510 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KNortheasSoutheasWestern
Favorable25%30%21%20%19%35%30%19%33%28%13%4%**17%28%40%9%20%**24%44%17%11%26%23%26%20%26%28%22%25%37%
Unfavorable47%47%47%31%60%50%48%46%49%46%69%46%**39%50%30%70%50%**50%30%53%68%36%48%51%50%45%48%46%50%46%
Neutral18%15%22%25%14%15%19%19%17%17%16%30%**22%17%22%15%15%**17%21%19%12%25%18%16%17%19%19%22%16%10%
No Opinion9%8%11%24%7%0%3%15%1%9%2%19%**22%4%8%5%15%**9%6%11%10%13%11%7%13%10%6%10%9%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%27%30%23%20%57%43%85%6%5%4%27%73%42%28%30%3%93%35%42%20%20%35%46%31%40%29%53%33%14%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.