Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17140
 
3 Weeks Until Voting Begins, Opposition to WA Liquor Initiatives Grows; Women, Democrats, College Grads, Lower-Income Voters Switch Sides:

In an election in Washington State today, 09/23/10, two separate ballot measures on liquor sales appear to pass, but by smaller margins than in an identical poll released one month ago, according to this latest exclusive KING 5 News poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Initiative 1100 passes today, 53% to 38%, but with a 15-point margin that is half last month's. Lower-income voters had supported I-1100 by 20 points, now oppose by 9 points, a 29-point swing. College graduates had supported I-1100 by 42 points, now support by 15, a 27-point swing. Men, supported i1100 by 50 points, now by 30 points. Women had backed I-1100 by 14 points, now oppose. Opposition to ballot measures typically builds as Election Day approaches. I-1100 would close state liquor stores; authorize the sale, distribution, and importation of spirits by private parties; and repeal certain requirements that govern the business operations of beer and wine distributors and producers.

Initiative 1105, which also changes liquor laws, also passes, though today by 8 points instead of last month's 25 points. Lower-income voters, who had supported I-1105 by 10 points, have turned away from I-1105 and now oppose by 13 points, a 23-point swing. College grads had supported I-1105 by 35 points, now support by 6 points, a 29-point swing. Women had supported I-1105 by 9 points, now oppose it by 14 points -- a 23-point swing. Democrats have switched sides on I-1105. I-1105 would close all state liquor stores and license private parties to sell or distribute spirits, and revise laws concerning the regulation, taxation, and government revenues from the distribution and sale of spirits. In both 1100 and 1105, SurveyUSA read actual ballot language to respondents. That language appears in the question text.

Initiative 1082, which would allow employers to purchase private industrial insurance, remains out of focus for many voters, with 43% today not certain how they will vote, essentially unchanged from 1 month ago. Among those who have made up their mind, the measure remains ahead 4:1. The actual outcome on I-1082 will depend on the extent to which the issue of industrial insurance is made relevant to voters.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Washington State adults 09/19/10 through 09/21/10. Of them, 859 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 609 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the November general election. 38 of Washington's 39 counties vote solely by mail; ballots will be mailed to voters in 3 weeks, on 10/15/10. Additional movement on all 3 measures is likely between now and when ballots are returned.
 
Also on the ballot are several initiatives. On initiative 1082, which would allow employers to purchase private industrial insurance, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1082, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean? }
609 Likely Voters Incl. LeanersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes41%47%33%47%42%38%38%44%38%40%****51%50%33%43%49%38%36%54%28%43%42%40%41%42%40%45%39%45%37%37%43%41%41%39%41%
Certain No16%17%16%24%12%16%16%16%16%16%****20%12%19%17%18%12%21%15%20%15%17%16%13%18%18%18%15%17%17%18%15%18%12%14%19%
Not Certain43%36%51%29%46%45%46%40%45%45%****30%38%48%41%33%50%43%31%52%42%42%44%45%40%42%37%46%38%46%45%42%42%46%47%40%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners100%54%46%15%32%31%22%47%53%85%3%3%9%25%36%36%34%40%22%33%37%20%52%48%35%27%38%39%56%49%44%25%39%36%27%20%53%
 
 
Also on the ballot are two initiatives about liquor. The first is initiative 1100. 1100 would close state liquor stores; authorize sale, distribution, and importation of spirits by private parties; and repeal certain requirements that govern the business operations of beer and wine distributers and producers. On initiative 1100, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1100, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean? }
609 Likely Voters Incl. LeanersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes53%62%42%47%61%51%48%56%50%53%****52%59%46%56%57%50%55%65%44%51%53%53%52%48%59%52%55%57%50%38%61%57%52%51%54%
Certain No38%32%44%43%34%37%40%37%38%38%****41%32%44%35%35%39%38%27%46%36%38%38%38%43%34%38%37%37%38%47%32%36%37%39%37%
Not Certain9%6%14%11%5%11%12%7%12%10%****8%9%11%9%8%10%7%8%10%12%10%9%11%9%7%10%8%6%12%15%7%8%10%11%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners100%54%46%15%32%31%22%47%53%85%3%3%9%25%36%36%34%40%22%33%37%20%52%48%35%27%38%39%56%49%44%25%39%36%27%20%53%
 
 
The second liquor initiative is 1105. 1105 would close all state liquor stores and license private parties to sell or distribute spirits. It would revise laws concerning regulation, taxation and government revenues from distribution and sale of spirits. On initiative 1105, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Initiative 1105, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean? }
609 Likely Voters Incl. LeanersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Certain Yes47%57%34%44%54%45%41%51%43%46%****44%53%38%52%50%47%43%58%36%50%47%46%47%42%49%46%47%50%43%34%52%52%47%44%47%
Certain No39%31%48%42%38%36%43%39%39%38%****43%33%47%35%34%40%44%30%48%35%41%37%38%46%36%38%40%36%43%47%33%38%36%41%40%
Not Certain14%11%18%14%8%19%16%10%18%15%****13%14%15%14%16%13%13%12%17%15%12%17%15%12%15%15%13%14%13%19%14%9%17%15%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners100%54%46%15%32%31%22%47%53%85%3%3%9%25%36%36%34%40%22%33%37%20%52%48%35%27%38%39%56%49%44%25%39%36%27%20%53%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.