Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24064
 
19 Weeks From Vote, Newsom, Feinstein Lead 2:1 in CA Governor, Senate Contests;
Move To Split CA Into 3 States Has Little Support; Gas Tax Repeal Initiative Has Backing:

In an election for California Governor today, 06/27/18, current Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom, defeats Republican businessman John Cox 58% to 29%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, and the San Diego Union Tribune. 13% of likely voters today say they are undecided, 132 day until votes are counted. 18% of Republicans and 20% of Conservatives cross over to vote for Newsom; Independents break 4:3 for the Democrat.

In the all-Democrat election for United States Senator from California, incumbent Dianne Feinstein wins her sixth term today, defeating former State Senate President Kevin de Leon 46% to 24%, with 31% of likely voters -- overwhelmingly Republicans -- undecided. De Leon runs most strongly with voters aged 35-49, those with middle incomes, those who attended some college, and in urban parts of the state -- but does not break past 30% among any of those subgroups.

The California Three States Initiative, or CAL3, a ballot measure which would divide the state of California into three separate states, is defeated by more than 5:1 today, 75% to 13%. California's youngest voters are twice as likely to vote yes as California's oldest voters; conservatives are twice as likely to vote yes as liberals; opposition, even among those groups, is extremely strong.

Another measure on the November ballot, The California Voter Approval for Gas and Vehicle Taxes Initiative, or Gas Tax Repeal Initiative, has a significantly greater chance of passing. Today 46% of likely voters vote yes; 33% vote no. 22% are undecided. If passed, the measure would repeal taxes and fees created by a 2017 law to fund road repairs and public transportation, and requires voter approval for future gasoline taxes. Support for the measure is strongest among Republicans, men, conservatives, younger voters, independents, and moderates. Having nothing to do with this measure in particular, opposition to ballot measures typically increases as Election Day nears.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of CA adults 06/26/18 through 06/27/18. Of the adults, 843 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 559 who are certain to vote in the November 6 general election. This research was conducted online.

 
1In the election for Governor of California, how do you vote? (candidate names rotated)
559 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
John Cox (R)29%35%25%18%32%32%30%26%31%38%**18%13%74%3%29%69%25%2%38%33%26%27%26%35%31%29%26%30%36%39%24%34%29%29%27%
Gavin Newsom (D)58%56%59%65%51%56%60%57%58%49%**67%75%18%88%43%20%58%93%51%50%64%62%59%52%52%59%62%56%53%51%60%53%58%62%57%
Undecided13%9%16%17%17%12%10%17%11%13%**15%12%8%8%27%10%17%5%11%18%10%11%15%14%17%12%13%14%11%10%16%14%13%9%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%44%56%14%20%32%34%34%66%63%5%21%11%29%49%21%24%47%26%11%35%54%32%33%35%24%76%31%58%11%23%35%22%34%21%22%
 
2In the election for United States Senator from California, how do you vote? (candidate names rotated)
559 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Dianne Feinstein (D)46%42%49%53%42%40%51%46%45%42%**41%67%17%66%39%22%47%66%41%39%51%51%44%42%47%45%50%45%36%38%50%47%52%34%46%
Kevin de Leon (D)24%24%23%25%30%23%19%28%21%27%**21%11%19%26%25%26%21%28%18%29%21%20%30%22%28%22%29%21%22%21%21%26%23%19%27%
Undecided31%34%28%22%28%37%30%26%34%31%**38%22%64%8%36%52%32%6%41%32%28%30%26%36%26%32%21%34%42%40%30%28%25%47%28%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%44%56%14%20%32%34%34%66%63%5%21%11%29%49%21%24%47%26%11%35%54%32%33%35%24%76%31%58%11%23%35%22%34%21%22%
 
3California voters will also be asked to vote yes or no on an initiative called CAL3, or the California Three States Initiative.

CAL3 divides California into three states subject to approval by Congress and assigns each county to a new state. Upon passage, CAL3 directs the Governor to request that Congress grant approval within twelve months. If Congress approves, directs Legislature to divide California's assets and liabilities between the new states. Provides that, if Legislature fails to act within twelve months of Congressional approval, debts shall be distributed among new states based on population relative to California population as a whole, and assets within boundaries of each new state shall become the assets of that new state.

Fiscal impact: Assuming this measure is approved by voters and the federal government and allowed by the courts, all tax collections and spending by the existing State of California would end. California's existing state assets and liabilities would be divided among three new states. These states would make their own decisions about state and local taxes and spending.

(Map of divided CA shown to respondents)

If you were marking your November ballot now, would you vote yes, to divide California into 3 separate states, or would you vote No, to leave California alone?

559 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Vote Yes13%17%10%26%8%10%13%16%12%13%**18%4%16%9%20%21%11%10%14%16%11%11%14%14%20%11%14%12%18%16%8%17%10%14%13%
Vote No75%76%74%67%80%75%76%74%75%74%**77%82%72%80%70%67%77%79%77%74%76%76%74%75%69%77%72%77%73%79%76%73%79%79%68%
Undecided12%7%15%7%12%15%11%10%13%13%**5%14%13%11%11%12%13%11%9%10%14%12%12%11%11%12%14%11%9%5%16%10%11%8%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%44%56%14%20%32%34%34%66%63%5%21%11%29%49%21%24%47%26%11%35%54%32%33%35%24%76%31%58%11%23%35%22%34%21%22%
 
4California voters will also be asked to vote yes or no on an initiative called "The California Voter Approval for Gas and Vehicle Taxes Initiative," or the "Gas Tax Repeal Initiative."

This initiative repeals a 2017 transportation law's tax and fee provisions that pay for repairs and improvements to local roads, state highways, and public transportation. It requires the Legislature to submit any measure enacting specified taxes or fees on gas or diesel fuel, or on the privilege to operate a vehicle on public highways, to the electorate for approval.

Fiscal impact: Reduced annual state transportation tax revenues of $2.9 billion in 2018-19, increasing to $4.9 billion annually by 2020-21. These revenues would primarily have supported state highway maintenance and rehabilitation, local streets and roads, and mass transit. In addition, potentially lower transportation tax revenues in the future from requiring voter approval of such tax increases, with the impact dependent on future actions by the Legislature and voters.

If you were marking your November ballot now, would you vote yes, to repeal the 2017 law's taxes and fees? Or no, to leave the 2017 law alone?

559 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Vote Yes46%54%39%54%50%51%35%52%42%46%**48%40%61%34%53%53%51%32%39%42%50%36%47%54%62%41%44%48%37%57%43%42%52%51%34%
Vote No33%32%33%31%35%30%34%34%32%34%**22%43%20%40%30%18%28%52%20%35%34%31%34%33%22%36%30%33%39%31%34%34%22%29%51%
Undecided22%13%28%15%14%19%32%15%25%20%**30%17%18%27%17%28%21%16%41%23%17%34%19%13%16%24%26%19%25%12%24%24%26%20%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%44%56%14%20%32%34%34%66%63%5%21%11%29%49%21%24%47%26%11%35%54%32%33%35%24%76%31%58%11%23%35%22%34%21%22%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.