| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16815 |
| 15 Days To Kansas Primary, Moran 14 Points Atop Tiahrt, Who Continues To Inch Closer: In a Republican Primary for US Senate in Kansas today, 07/19/10, 15 days until votes are counted, Jerry Moran defeats Todd Tiahrt 50% to 36%, according to this latest SurveyUSA's pre-primary tracking poll conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV Wichita.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, Tiahrt is up 3 points; Moran is down 3. Among conservatives, among those with favorable opinions of the tea party movement, and among pro-life voters, Tiahrt and Moran are now tied. In 10 SurveyUSA tracking polls, Moran has never trailed; Tiahrt has never polled above 38%. Moran's 14-point lead today is his slimmest since late March, when he led Tiahrt by 10. |
| Undecided Voters Yet To Choose Sides in Democratic US Senate Primary: 2 weeks until votes are counted, more Democratic primary voters are undecided than have settled on any 1 of the 5 candidates vying for the Democratic nomination for US Senate. Today, college professor Lisa Johnston gets 23%; retired businessman Charles Schollenberger gets 14%; State Senator David Haley gets 12%; retiree Bob Conroy and attorney Patrick Wiesner each get 7%. 36% are undecided. |
| Brownback Advances to November Ballot: In a Republican Primary for Kansas Governor today, 07/19/10, Sam Brownback and running mate Jeff Colyer defeat the ticket of Joan Heffington and Mark Holick by 54 points. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, the contest is unchanged. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,500 Kansas adults 07/15/10 through 07/18/10. Of them, 2,138 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 787 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 08/08/10 Republican Primary; 406 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 08/03/10 Democratic Primary. Advance voting began on 07/15/10. |
 | If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jerry Moran? Todd Tiahrt? Tom Little? Or Robert Londerholm? |
| 787 Likely & Actal GOP Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.6% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northeas | Southeas | Western | |
| Moran | 50% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 48% | 53% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 51% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 50% | 50% | ** | ** | 45% | 62% | ** | 45% | 60% | 55% | 57% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 55% | 51% | 48% | 55% | 50% | 49% | 48% | 51% | 56% | 33% | 67% |
| Tiahrt | 36% | 37% | 36% | 39% | 38% | 36% | 34% | 38% | 35% | 36% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 36% | 36% | ** | ** | 44% | 21% | ** | 44% | 19% | 30% | 29% | 38% | 34% | 40% | 28% | 32% | 42% | 26% | 38% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 29% | 54% | 23% |
| Little | 3% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | 2% | 5% | ** | 2% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% |
| Londerholm | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | 1% | 3% | ** | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Undecided | 9% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 9% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 9% | 9% | ** | ** | 8% | 8% | ** | 8% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actal GOP Primary Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 11% | 31% | 30% | 28% | 42% | 58% | 94% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 96% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 26% | 4% | 58% | 11% | 22% | 9% | 57% | 43% | 66% | 20% | 14% | 69% | 30% | 63% | 33% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 34% | 18% |
 | If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Bob Conroy? David Haley? Lisa Johnston? Charles Schollenberger? Or Patrick Wiesner? |
| 406 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northeas | Southeas | Western | |
| Conroy | 7% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 3% | ** | 17% | 6% | ** | 6% | 10% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 14% |
| Haley | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 30% | 19% | ** | 24% | 12% | ** | 15% | 6% | 5% | 16% | 16% | 5% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 7% | 17% | 11% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 16% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 9% |
| Johnston | 23% | 19% | 26% | 24% | 22% | 26% | 19% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 29% | 26% | ** | 23% | 23% | ** | 25% | 18% | 14% | 24% | 29% | 17% | 24% | 20% | 38% | 22% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 20% | 17% | 27% | 21% | 26% | 24% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 14% |
| Schollenberger | 14% | 17% | 12% | 5% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 11% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 3% | ** | 11% | 14% | ** | 15% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 8% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 11% | 18% | 16% |
| Wiesner | 7% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | ** | 8% | 7% | ** | 6% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 17% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 12% | 11% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 8% |
| Undecided | 36% | 37% | 36% | 43% | 36% | 34% | 36% | 38% | 35% | 38% | 15% | 42% | ** | 17% | 38% | ** | 34% | 42% | 46% | 31% | 29% | 46% | 33% | 34% | 39% | 38% | 34% | 34% | 39% | 37% | 38% | 32% | 36% | 34% | 35% | 37% | 35% | 37% | 39% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters | 100% | 43% | 57% | 13% | 28% | 35% | 25% | 40% | 60% | 84% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 94% | 0% | 72% | 28% | 20% | 41% | 29% | 20% | 50% | 22% | 9% | 49% | 51% | 48% | 30% | 22% | 33% | 63% | 50% | 47% | 43% | 57% | 55% | 33% | 13% |
 | Kansas Republicans will also vote in a primary election for Governor. If the Republican Primary for Kansas Governor were today, which ticket would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) The ticket of Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer? Or The ticket of Joan Heffington and Mark Holick? |
| 787 Likely & Actal GOP Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.2% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northeas | Southeas | Western | |
| Brownback/Colyer | 73% | 78% | 69% | 75% | 75% | 74% | 71% | 75% | 72% | 73% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 73% | 73% | ** | ** | 81% | 60% | ** | 80% | 34% | 76% | 70% | 73% | 74% | 79% | 70% | 53% | 84% | 50% | 76% | 69% | 72% | 74% | 72% | 74% | 77% |
| Heffington/Holick | 19% | 17% | 21% | 17% | 16% | 21% | 21% | 16% | 21% | 19% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 19% | 19% | ** | ** | 13% | 28% | ** | 13% | 56% | 17% | 18% | 20% | 18% | 15% | 20% | 37% | 11% | 38% | 18% | 22% | 19% | 19% | 22% | 17% | 14% |
| Undecided | 8% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% | ** | ** | ** | ** | 8% | 8% | ** | ** | 6% | 12% | ** | 7% | 11% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 5% | 12% | 6% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actal GOP Primary Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 11% | 31% | 30% | 28% | 42% | 58% | 94% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 96% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 26% | 4% | 58% | 11% | 22% | 9% | 57% | 43% | 66% | 20% | 14% | 69% | 30% | 63% | 33% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 34% | 18% |