Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20620
 
Should San Diego Mayor Filner Resign, Fletcher Effectively Ties DeMaio, Faulconer and Frye Nose-to-Nose, Other Match-Ups More Lopsided:

In the event San Diego Mayor Bob Filner resigns, KGTV-TV 10 News and the U-T San Diego look at 6 possible head-to-head match-ups, among prominent local politicos who may seek to replace Filner, in research conducted by SurveyUSA. Ranked from most-closely contested to most lopsided:

* Carl DeMaio and Nathan Fletcher effectively tie, Fletcher at 42%, DeMaio at 41%. Republicans overwhelmingly favor DeMaio. Democrats 2:1 favor Fletcher. Independents split. Men split. Women split. The less educated and the more educated split. Younger voters slightly favor Fletcher. Older voters slightly favor DeMaio. Whites and Hispanics slightly favor DeMaio. Asian Americans slightly favor Fletcher.

* Kevin Faulconer and Donna Frye are nose-to-nose, Faulconer at 40%, Frye at 37%. Frye leads among women. Faulconer leads among men. Whites split. Hispanics narrowly back Faulconer. Asians narrowly back Frye. Conservatives 2:1 favor Faulconer. Liberals 2:1 favor Frye. The least affluent voters favor Frye. The most affluent voters favor Faulconer.

* Kevin Faulconer narrowly defeats Todd Gloria, 36% to 30% ... but more than 1 in 3 voters are undecided in that head-to-head match-up. Faulconer leads 4:1 among Republicans and 4:3 among Independents. Gloria leads 2:1 among Democrats. Seniors, the most reliable voters, favor Faulconer 2:1. The youngest voters, who are the least reliable, back Gloria. Less affluent voters go for Gloria. More affluent voters go for Faulconer.

* DeMaio leads Donna Frye by 18 points, 51% to 33%.

* Fletcher leads Jan Goldsmith by 19 points, 47% to 28%.

* DeMaio leads Gloria by 21 points.

* Fletcher leads Faulconer by 26 points.

Overwhelmingly, voters say that Integrity is the most important quality for a new mayor to have. Twice as many name Integrity as the next attribute, Leadership, followed by Fiscal Responsibility.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 650 city of San Diego adults 07/16/13 through 07/18/13. Of the adults, 564 were registered to vote and were asked the questions in the survey. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
1Imagine there were an election for mayor of San Diego today. If the only two candidates on the ballot were Carl DeMaio and Nathan Fletcher, who would you vote for?
564 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMost ImportantCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / IntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
DeMaio41%42%40%33%44%46%43%38%45%44%20%45%36%47%30%58%22%25%45%64%26%41%65%39%21%34%42%43%39%39%45%
Fletcher42%44%41%46%43%39%41%44%40%41%56%37%49%37%66%22%57%53%40%29%50%45%25%48%57%34%44%44%40%46%42%
Undecided16%14%19%22%12%15%16%17%15%15%23%18%16%16%4%20%22%22%15%7%24%13%10%13%22%32%14%14%21%15%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%30%29%23%18%59%41%56%7%21%16%41%19%15%9%21%79%29%40%29%29%46%21%9%33%58%22%34%43%
 
 
2OK, what if the only candidates were DeMaio and Todd Gloria?
564 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMost ImportantCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / IntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
DeMaio50%48%52%43%53%52%54%48%53%49%50%55%46%55%55%51%33%44%51%74%33%50%73%48%30%41%56%50%48%52%52%
Gloria29%36%23%34%26%30%26%30%29%29%23%28%33%26%37%21%34%30%29%16%39%29%14%32%46%31%28%31%30%30%29%
Undecided21%16%25%23%21%18%20%22%19%21%26%17%22%19%8%28%34%26%19%10%28%21%13%20%24%28%16%20%23%18%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%30%29%23%18%59%41%56%7%21%16%41%19%15%9%21%79%29%40%29%29%46%21%9%33%58%22%34%43%
 
 
3What if the only candidates were Kevin Faulconer and Nathan Fletcher?
564 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMost ImportantCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / IntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Faulconer24%27%21%21%25%26%26%23%26%28%18%19%18%26%20%32%13%16%26%34%15%27%33%23%17%28%22%26%21%25%27%
Fletcher50%52%49%53%55%44%47%54%45%50%54%47%54%45%67%37%69%60%48%44%54%51%41%53%52%46%48%51%45%50%52%
Undecided26%21%30%26%20%31%28%23%29%22%28%34%28%28%13%31%18%24%26%22%31%22%26%23%31%27%30%23%34%26%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%30%29%23%18%59%41%56%7%21%16%41%19%15%9%21%79%29%40%29%29%46%21%9%33%58%22%34%43%
 
 
4What if the only candidates were Kevin Faulconer and Todd Gloria?
564 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMost ImportantCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / IntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Faulconer36%41%31%29%38%35%45%33%39%40%23%34%29%40%40%35%24%23%39%53%21%41%51%34%26%34%32%39%28%32%45%
Gloria30%33%28%38%30%27%22%34%25%28%39%33%32%25%37%27%37%41%28%13%40%33%16%35%43%33%32%30%33%36%27%
Undecided34%26%41%33%32%38%32%33%35%32%38%33%39%35%23%38%39%37%33%34%39%26%33%31%31%33%37%31%39%32%28%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%30%29%23%18%59%41%56%7%21%16%41%19%15%9%21%79%29%40%29%29%46%21%9%33%58%22%34%43%
 
 
5What if the only candidates were Jan Goldsmith and Nathan Fletcher?
564 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMost ImportantCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / IntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Goldsmith28%29%28%24%30%27%35%27%31%29%19%33%25%31%24%33%18%17%31%41%22%26%39%27%22%30%30%29%24%30%31%
Fletcher47%51%43%48%48%46%44%48%45%50%49%34%51%43%67%34%56%61%43%40%47%54%38%54%49%44%43%50%40%49%50%
Undecided25%20%29%29%21%27%21%25%24%21%33%33%24%26%8%33%26%22%25%19%31%20%24%20%29%26%27%21%36%21%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%30%29%23%18%59%41%56%7%21%16%41%19%15%9%21%79%29%40%29%29%46%21%9%33%58%22%34%43%
 
 
6What if the only candidates were Carl DeMaio and Donna Frye?
564 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMost ImportantCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / IntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
DeMaio51%51%52%49%54%50%51%52%51%52%47%54%48%55%57%58%27%52%51%80%33%50%80%49%27%36%55%52%43%53%54%
Frye33%32%33%31%33%33%34%32%34%35%21%24%39%34%33%25%42%30%33%15%44%34%14%36%49%44%27%35%37%32%34%
Undecided16%17%15%20%13%16%15%16%16%13%32%22%13%10%9%17%32%18%16%5%23%17%7%15%23%19%18%13%21%14%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%30%29%23%18%59%41%56%7%21%16%41%19%15%9%21%79%29%40%29%29%46%21%9%33%58%22%34%43%
 
 
7And what if the only candidates were Kevin Faulconer and Donna Frye?
564 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMost ImportantCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / IntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Faulconer40%43%36%33%45%38%44%39%41%43%29%39%35%42%47%43%21%34%41%63%26%37%57%38%25%34%40%41%32%33%49%
Frye37%31%43%38%37%35%39%38%37%39%36%30%42%41%38%28%39%38%37%23%46%39%24%40%52%46%33%40%46%39%35%
Undecided23%25%21%29%18%26%17%24%22%19%35%31%23%18%15%29%40%28%22%14%28%24%19%22%23%20%27%19%21%28%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%30%29%23%18%59%41%56%7%21%16%41%19%15%9%21%79%29%40%29%29%46%21%9%33%58%22%34%43%
 
 
8Which of these would be the most important quality for a new mayor to have? Integrity? Leadership? Stability? Business experience? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else?
564 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceMost ImportantCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / IntegritLeadershFiscal RReach AcCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Integrity41%31%49%39%40%43%40%40%42%41%46%42%37%100%0%0%0%43%40%53%33%37%49%40%33%41%41%41%40%45%38%
Leadership19%20%19%26%12%21%16%19%19%14%23%21%35%0%100%0%0%25%18%13%23%21%20%16%26%17%23%18%21%20%18%
Stability4%6%3%8%2%2%4%5%3%4%3%5%5%0%0%0%0%6%4%3%5%4%3%4%7%4%5%4%9%4%2%
Business Experience5%6%5%1%11%7%2%6%4%5%0%8%4%0%0%0%0%5%5%6%6%4%3%8%3%6%5%5%5%4%7%
Fiscal Responsibility15%20%11%12%21%13%12%17%13%21%7%7%9%0%0%100%0%16%15%16%11%20%17%15%12%11%11%19%9%13%20%
Reach Across Party Lines9%10%8%9%7%9%12%8%10%9%3%12%7%0%0%0%100%4%10%5%13%7%4%10%9%12%7%8%5%7%10%
Something Else3%4%3%3%2%2%7%3%4%3%6%3%2%0%0%0%0%0%4%1%5%4%1%2%7%1%6%2%6%4%2%
Not Sure4%4%4%2%4%3%7%3%5%3%11%2%3%0%0%0%0%1%4%2%5%2%2%4%3%8%2%3%4%2%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%30%29%23%18%59%41%56%7%21%16%41%19%15%9%21%79%29%40%29%29%46%21%9%33%58%22%34%43%