Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19243
 
In North Carolina, Among Likely Voters, Romney and Obama Now Even, 24 Weeks to Election Day: In an election for President of the United States today, 05/22/12, North Carolina's 15 critical electoral college votes are a toss-up, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV Raleigh.

Previous SurveyUSA polling in 2012 has been of registered voters. In this first look at likely voters, it's Mitt Romney 45%, Barack Obama 44,% within the survey's many possible sources of error, and therefore effectively even. Romney leads by 21 points among North Carolina's white voters. Obama leads by 76 points among North Carolina's black voters, who are estimated here at 20% of the electorate. A larger, engergized black turnout helps Obama; a smaller, depressed black turnout helps Romney.

Independents break 4:3 for Romney. Moderates break 5:4 for Obama. Romney has an ever-so-slight advantage in greater Charlotte; Obama has an ever-so-slight advantage in Southern and Coastal Carolina. The candidates are even in greater Greensboro and greater Raleigh. Romney does well among middle-income voters and the less educated. Romney leads by 19 points among evangelicals and by 65 points among Conservatives. Three times as many Democrats cross-over to vote for Romney as Republicans who cross-over to vote for Obama.

On Marriage: 36% in NC say a candidate's position on same-sex marriage is very important; of them, twice as many vote for Romney as vote for Obama. 24% say a candidate's position on marriage is not a factor in how they vote; among them, twice as many vote for Obama as vote for Romney.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: 700 North Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/18/12 through 05/21/12. Of the adults, 606 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 524 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote 11/06/12. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. Cell-phone respondents keep Obama in the ballgame. Among home-phone respondents, Romney leads by 4 points. Among cell-phone respondents, Obama leads by 11 points. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, Romney holds the nominal 1-point advantage reported here. In 2008, Obama carried North Carolina by one-half of one percentage point. In 2004, George Bush carried North Carolina with 56% of the vote.

 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Or Democrat Barack Obama?
524 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologySame Sex RecognitionPresidential VotEvangelicalEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo LegalDomesticCivil UnMarriageRomneyObamaYesNoHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Mitt Romney (R)45%51%40%36%49%48%49%42%48%56%8%52%**33%49%89%18%45%**43%80%37%9%66%53%36%15%100%0%56%35%51%45%42%37%50%42%47%44%46%42%
Barack Obama (D)44%38%50%48%43%40%48%46%43%35%84%27%**44%45%6%76%32%**48%15%48%83%23%36%56%80%0%100%37%51%44%46%44%53%38%48%42%46%46%45%
Other4%6%3%6%1%8%1%3%5%4%0%21%**8%3%1%1%12%**3%4%6%1%6%2%4%4%0%0%3%5%0%5%5%4%6%1%6%2%5%3%
Undecided6%5%7%11%7%4%2%9%3%6%9%0%**15%3%3%4%11%**6%1%10%7%5%9%4%2%0%0%4%8%5%5%8%5%6%9%6%8%4%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%24%32%20%48%52%70%20%7%4%24%76%29%44%24%4%91%34%41%20%39%19%19%19%45%44%44%47%19%36%45%36%37%26%32%17%36%15%
 
 
2Will the Presidential candidates' positions on same-sex marriage be a very important factor in how you vote this year? A somewhat important factor? A not very important factor? Or not a factor at all?
524 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologySame Sex RecognitionPresidential VotEvangelicalEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo LegalDomesticCivil UnMarriageRomneyObamaYesNoHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Very Important36%40%33%43%37%31%36%40%33%39%21%50%**37%36%48%30%34%**35%52%30%28%58%26%14%29%53%24%49%23%41%37%35%34%35%32%39%40%35%31%
Somewhat Important19%16%21%17%23%19%14%20%17%20%18%10%**19%19%17%21%16%**18%19%17%21%14%28%13%30%17%22%19%20%21%22%16%25%16%18%24%16%16%17%
Not Very Important19%19%19%15%16%24%20%15%23%18%24%21%**16%20%14%19%28%**20%17%22%17%16%20%28%10%14%20%16%20%16%16%22%17%23%19%10%20%26%21%
Not a Factor24%22%25%23%21%24%27%22%25%23%30%19%**23%24%19%28%19%**24%11%29%33%10%26%44%29%16%32%14%36%21%21%27%20%25%29%25%20%22%29%
Not Sure2%3%1%1%2%2%3%2%2%1%7%0%**4%1%1%3%2%**2%1%2%2%2%0%1%1%1%3%3%1%2%4%0%4%1%2%2%5%1%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%24%32%20%48%52%70%20%7%4%24%76%29%44%24%4%91%34%41%20%39%19%19%19%45%44%44%47%19%36%45%36%37%26%32%17%36%15%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.