Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19169
 
In Mad Scramble for North Carolina's 15 Electoral Votes, Obama 4 Atop Romney, 6 Months to Election Day:

In an election for President of the United States toady 05/01/12, incumbent Democrat Barack Obama narrowly holds North Carolina's 15 critical electoral college votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV Raleigh.

Obama leads 12:1 among North Carolina's African Americans, who are 20% of the voters in this poll. If blacks turnout in smaller numbers, Obama will underperform these poll numbers.

Republican Mitt Romney leads by 20 points among North Carolina's white voters and by 5 points among Independents. 15% of Democrats cross-over to vote Republican. But: Romney is significantly disadvantaged among Moderates, where Obama leads by 23 points; without greater support from Moderates, Romney will have trouble turning the swing-state Red.

Romney leads in greater Charlotte, is tied with Obama in greater Greensboro, and trails Obama in Raleigh and in Southern and Coastal NC. Obama leads among the least affluent voters; the two are effectively even among middle-income voters; Romney leads among more affluent voters.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: 1,945 North Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/26/12 through 04/30/12. Of the adults, 1,636 were registered to vote, and were asked the head-to-head question. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (23% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. Cell respondents provide almost all of Obama's advantage. Among home-phone respondents, Obama and Romney are effectively even. Among cell-phone respondents, Obama leads by 15 points. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 4 points here reported. In 2008, Obama carried North Carolina by one-half of one percentage point. In 2004, George Bush carried North Carolina with 56% of the vote.

 
1In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
1636 Registered VotersAllGenderAgeRaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege < $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Barack Obama (D)47%44%50%52%49%47%40%35%85%52%46%10%78%41%**49%20%27%55%89%76%51%46%47%49%47%44%43%46%55%46%
Mitt Romney (R)43%46%41%38%41%44%52%55%7%37%45%83%15%46%**42%76%64%32%7%13%38%44%45%38%45%49%49%46%37%41%
Undecided9%10%9%10%10%9%8%10%8%11%9%7%7%13%**9%4%9%12%4%11%10%10%8%13%7%6%9%9%8%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%26%27%29%18%71%20%23%77%32%45%20%5%92%15%26%34%13%5%23%32%45%37%37%26%35%18%31%15%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.