Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23278
 
In Re-Match in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Nolan an Underdog, 19 Days to Go:

Incumbent Democrat Rick Nolan will need to come from behind to hold onto his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Democrats expect to pick-up House seats in the 2016 general election, but this has the potential to be a District that flips from Blue to Red.

Republican challenger Stuart Mills, who lost to Nolan by 3,700 votes in 2014, today narrowly edges Nolan, 45% to 41%, with 14% of likely voters still on the fence and able to swing the contest one way or the other. Either candidate may emerge.

Mills leads among voters younger than 64. Nolan leads only among seniors age 65+. Mills has a 10-point advantage among men, which Nolan cannot overcome with his 3-point advantage among women. 84% of Republicans vote for the Republican; 89% of Democrats vote for the Democrat. But independent voters --- critical to both candidates --- break for Mills at this hour, 45% to 35%, enough to make him the favorite.

Among voters who say that health care is the most important issue in the campaign, Nolan leads by 17 points. Among voters focused on terrorism, Mills leads 3:1. Among voters focused on taxes, Mills leads 2:1.

High-school educated voters vote overwhelmingly Republican; Nolan leads narrowly among those with a 4-year college degree.

Republican Donald Trump carries the district 47% to 35% over Hillary Clinton at this hour. Of those voting for Trump, 81% also vote for Mills. Of those voting for Clinton, 87% also vote for Nolan.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Minnesota's 8th U.S. Congressional District 10/16/16 through 10/19/16, using registration based sample (RBS, also-known-as: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 595 likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents) were called on their cell-phones by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent's cooperation, ensured the respondent's safety, asked the respondent the survey questions, entered the respondent's answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the interview. MN-08 is a vast expanse of real estate stretching north from St Paul, over the top of Lake Superior, to the Canadian border, and as far west as Hubbard and Wadena Counties. Duluth is one of several population centers.
 
1If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 8th Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? Republican Stewart Mills? Or DFL candidate Rick Nolan?
595 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesMiningHealth CTerrorisEducatioHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Stewart Mills (R)45%49%40%36%45%49%44%41%47%88%81%71%41%9%5%2%84%45%4%76%34%8%81%7%51%47%37%67%9%57%44%41%43%45%47%39%47%
Rick Nolan (DFL)41%39%43%28%33%45%47%31%46%6%10%13%30%79%82%97%8%35%89%13%50%83%8%87%27%48%54%22%78%36%40%44%43%46%38%32%45%
Undecided14%12%17%36%22%6%9%28%7%6%10%17%29%12%13%1%8%20%7%11%15%9%10%6%21%4%9%11%13%7%17%15%14%9%15%29%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%20%32%34%33%67%15%15%17%14%10%15%12%29%41%27%39%36%19%47%35%13%6%26%25%5%21%40%39%27%38%35%30%70%
 
2If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Green Party candidate Jill Stein? Or one of the other candidates?
595 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesMiningHealth CTerrorisEducatioHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Donald Trump (R)47%52%41%45%45%50%46%45%48%88%78%80%45%4%9%2%83%49%6%76%37%12%100%0%58%46%37%67%18%60%46%41%46%48%50%42%49%
Hillary Clinton (D)35%31%39%20%25%36%45%23%41%3%7%4%16%69%77%97%5%25%86%10%40%75%0%100%29%52%46%19%59%34%31%38%33%39%33%24%39%
Gary Johnson (L)4%5%3%5%7%3%4%6%3%2%4%5%7%7%3%0%3%6%2%3%7%2%0%0%3%2%5%2%0%1%6%5%3%3%5%5%4%
Jill Stein (G)3%2%5%9%3%4%1%5%2%0%2%2%5%6%8%0%1%4%4%2%4%7%0%0%1%0%4%1%15%1%5%3%8%2%2%7%2%
Other4%6%3%7%9%4%1%8%3%5%3%7%3%7%4%1%4%6%3%4%4%3%0%0%1%0%5%4%3%2%5%5%3%6%4%4%5%
Undecided6%4%9%15%12%3%3%13%3%3%6%1%23%7%0%0%5%10%0%5%9%1%0%0%7%0%4%6%6%2%7%8%7%2%6%18%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%20%32%34%33%67%15%15%17%14%10%15%12%29%41%27%39%36%19%47%35%13%6%26%25%5%21%40%39%27%38%35%30%70%
 
3Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rick Nolan is doing as US Representative?
595 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesMiningHealth CTerrorisEducatioHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Approve42%41%43%35%38%40%48%37%44%11%16%16%32%76%78%89%13%36%83%15%55%76%11%84%40%51%51%25%73%37%41%45%47%43%39%39%43%
Disapprove41%45%37%29%33%47%44%32%46%71%64%75%36%10%9%4%68%45%7%68%30%9%71%7%52%44%33%59%10%48%42%37%39%46%37%26%47%
Not Sure17%14%21%36%29%12%8%31%10%18%21%9%32%15%13%7%19%18%10%17%15%15%18%9%9%5%16%16%18%15%17%18%14%11%24%35%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%20%32%34%33%67%15%15%17%14%10%15%12%29%41%27%39%36%19%47%35%13%6%26%25%5%21%40%39%27%38%35%30%70%
 
4Which one of these issues is most important when deciding how you will vote in this election? Taxes? Mining? Foreign trade? Health care? Terrorism and national security? Transportation? Education? Or something else?
595 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesMiningHealth CTerrorisEducatioHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Taxes13%14%11%11%14%14%12%13%13%16%20%12%15%8%6%10%18%12%8%19%11%6%16%11%100%0%0%0%0%12%12%14%11%14%12%16%11%
Mining6%7%6%2%7%4%9%5%7%7%3%7%2%7%8%9%5%5%8%5%7%7%6%9%0%100%0%0%0%6%6%5%6%4%8%3%8%
Foreign Trade4%4%3%0%9%3%2%5%3%4%1%5%1%12%1%1%2%5%1%3%6%2%4%2%0%0%0%0%0%2%5%3%1%6%3%3%4%
Health Care26%24%28%12%17%31%32%15%31%14%27%17%28%27%36%36%20%23%36%19%29%37%21%34%0%0%100%0%0%28%28%24%29%29%23%14%31%
Terrorism And National Security25%24%25%31%22%26%22%25%24%41%25%41%21%11%15%14%33%27%15%35%20%12%35%14%0%0%0%100%0%32%24%21%20%26%26%23%25%
Transportation2%1%2%4%4%0%1%4%1%1%3%0%7%0%1%1%2%2%1%1%2%2%2%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%3%3%0%3%4%1%
Education5%5%6%10%5%6%2%7%4%3%0%1%7%11%8%8%2%6%8%3%6%10%2%9%0%0%0%0%100%1%5%8%6%4%7%10%3%
Other15%17%13%24%15%13%14%18%14%10%13%17%16%18%19%14%11%17%17%12%17%18%11%14%0%0%0%0%0%11%15%17%18%12%16%19%14%
Not Sure5%4%6%5%8%3%5%7%4%4%8%1%3%5%6%6%6%2%6%4%3%5%3%6%0%0%0%0%0%7%3%4%6%5%2%7%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%20%32%34%33%67%15%15%17%14%10%15%12%29%41%27%39%36%19%47%35%13%6%26%25%5%21%40%39%27%38%35%30%70%
 
5What should be done to address rapidly rising health insurance rates? Repeal the Affordable Care Act ,also known as Obamacare, and start over with another plan? Make changes to the Affordable Care Act, but keep much of it in place? Go to government-run or universal health care? Or something else?
595 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesMiningHealth CTerrorisEducatioHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Repeal The Affordable Care Act45%50%40%38%49%48%43%45%45%81%69%71%46%10%18%6%75%47%12%73%37%11%78%12%57%51%39%64%13%49%47%42%40%46%48%37%49%
Make Changes30%26%33%28%20%30%36%23%33%5%13%19%23%53%51%62%9%29%56%15%33%52%9%59%31%29%35%18%58%29%33%27%39%31%23%25%32%
Government-run Or Universal Health Care13%13%14%15%14%15%11%14%13%0%6%4%18%28%20%25%3%15%22%3%17%30%3%22%7%10%19%4%14%5%12%19%8%13%19%15%12%
Other7%9%5%7%12%4%6%10%5%6%8%6%11%6%4%0%7%7%2%6%8%1%7%1%4%4%5%8%3%11%5%7%8%4%7%12%5%
Not Sure5%3%8%12%5%3%4%8%4%7%3%0%2%2%7%7%5%1%7%3%4%6%3%5%1%5%2%5%12%6%3%6%5%5%3%10%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%20%32%34%33%67%15%15%17%14%10%15%12%29%41%27%39%36%19%47%35%13%6%26%25%5%21%40%39%27%38%35%30%70%
 
6Do you think the federal gas tax should be increased to help pay for transportation projects like highways, bridges and mass transit?
595 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyVote For PresideTop IssueEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratConservaModerateLiberalTrumpClintonTaxesMiningHealth CTerrorisEducatioHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Yes38%39%36%35%22%41%45%27%43%25%18%36%34%51%50%61%22%39%55%29%41%54%26%57%35%34%41%31%46%32%35%44%34%40%40%39%37%
No56%56%57%57%73%51%52%67%51%67%75%63%64%42%43%33%71%58%39%66%53%42%69%38%65%60%55%63%42%60%61%51%60%56%54%54%57%
Not Sure6%5%7%8%5%8%4%6%6%8%7%2%3%7%7%5%7%3%6%5%6%4%5%6%0%6%4%6%12%9%4%5%6%4%5%7%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%13%20%32%34%33%67%15%15%17%14%10%15%12%29%41%27%39%36%19%47%35%13%6%26%25%5%21%40%39%27%38%35%30%70%