|Democrat Wulsin Catches Incumbent Republican Schmidt, OH2 House Seat May 'Flip': In an election for US House of Representatives in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District today, 11/1/06, Democrat Victoria Wulsin comes from behind and appears to just squeak by incumbent Republican Jean Schmidt in the campaign's final days, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. 6 days to the 11/7/06 election, Wulsin gets 48%, Schmidt gets 45%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 10/17/06, Wulsin has gained 8 points; Schmidt has lost 3. Schmidt had led by 8, now trails by 3, an 11-point swing to the Democrat.
Republicans support Schmidt 5:1. Democrats support Wulsin 15:1. Independents favor Wulsin, 55% to 35%. Those Independent voters provide Wulsin's margin of victory. If they do not turn out on Election Day, Schmidt wins.
In the past 6 weeks, voter enthusiasm has increased in this District. In 3 polls, the percentage of Likely Voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model, as a percentage of Registered voters, has increased steadily. The Republican advantage among likely voters has fluctuated: it was 18 points six weeks ago, 24 points two weeks ago, 12 points now. The increase in turnout in the last 2 weeks comes mostly from Democrats, boosting Wulsin into the lead.
Among male voters, Schmidt had led by 15, now trails by 2. Among females, the number of undecided voters has dropped from 16% to 11% to today 6%. Those voters have gone slightly, but measurably, to Wulsin, who had trailed by 3 among women but now leads by 4. The contest is tied among voters age 35+. Wulsin's gains are concentrated among younger voters. Wulsin had trailed by 10 in this group, now leads by 22, a 32-point swing.
Of those likely voters who approve of President George W. Bush's performance in office, 86% vote for Schmidt. Of those who disapprove of Bush, 84% vote for Wulsin.
President Bush's Job Approval among Likely Voters in OH2 is 44%.
Schmidt was first elected to Congress in a special election in 2005.