| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17127 |
| Movement to Democrats in California Governor and US Senate Contests:
Democrat Jerry Brown, running for Governor, and Democrat Barbara Boxer, seeking reelection as a U.S. Senator, today 09/22/10 finish ahead of their Republican opponents for the first time in 2 months of SurveyUSA tracking, according to new polling commissioned by KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.
In the race for the open Governor's seat, Brown today edges Republican Meg Whitman 46% to 43%, a result within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error, but a result that reflects a 10-point swing to the Democrat over the past 3 weeks. Brown has gained strength and Whitman has lost strength among young and old, men and women, and in all regions of the state. A similar swing and similar movement in the US Senate race benefits incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, who today edges Republican Carly Fiorina 49% to 43%, Boxer's first lead in 2 months of SurveyUSA polling and an 8-point swing to the Democrat over the past 3 weeks. Boxer, like Brown, has gained as Fiorina has fallen among both men and women, young and old, and throughout the state. By contrast, two other statewide contests in California polled at the same time show little or no movement, suggesting that the changes in the governor and US Senate contest are real rather than the result of random sample variation. For Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom today is nominally atop incumbent Republican Abel Maldonado, 44% to 41%. Compared to 3 weeks ago, Newsom is flat; Maldonado is up a nominal 2 points . In 6 weeks of SurveyUSA polling, Newsom has never polled below 43% or above 44%; Maldonado has never polled below 39% or above 42%. Support for Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana and allow for its regulation and taxation, also remains essentially unchanged over the past 3 weeks. Today, 47% vote "Yes" on 19, 42% vote "No." Opposition to 19 is above 50% among conservatives, Republicans, tea party supporters, pro-life voters, and the oldest voters. Support is above 50% among men, younger voters, liberals, Democrats, pro-choice voters, higher-income voters, and in the Bay Area. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 California adults 09/19/10 through 09/21/10. Of them, 850 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 610 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Early voting begins in 12 days, on 10/04/10. |
![]() | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for California Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Meg Whitman? Democrat Jerry Brown? Or another candidate? |
| 610 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Tea Party | College Grad | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Whitman (R) | 43% | 47% | 39% | 35% | 46% | 41% | 48% | 42% | 44% | 47% | 27% | 38% | 39% | 78% | 14% | 49% | 77% | 40% | 11% | 79% | 12% | 52% | 43% | 44% | 66% | 30% | 56% | 35% | 42% | 42% | 44% | 55% | 43% | 45% | 33% |
| Brown (D) | 46% | 44% | 49% | 54% | 45% | 46% | 42% | 48% | 45% | 44% | 66% | 49% | 46% | 12% | 77% | 38% | 13% | 50% | 78% | 11% | 80% | 37% | 48% | 44% | 23% | 61% | 35% | 54% | 45% | 46% | 49% | 32% | 45% | 44% | 61% |
| Other | 8% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 4% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 32% | 29% | 21% | 51% | 49% | 61% | 6% | 20% | 14% | 33% | 43% | 23% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 33% | 41% | 20% | 60% | 40% | 36% | 59% | 33% | 61% | 21% | 33% | 46% | 20% | 36% | 17% | 26% |
| 610 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Tea Party | College Grad | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Fiorina (R) | 43% | 49% | 38% | 32% | 45% | 43% | 52% | 40% | 47% | 49% | 25% | 36% | 37% | 84% | 12% | 47% | 85% | 37% | 9% | 89% | 8% | 47% | 43% | 44% | 68% | 28% | 59% | 34% | 47% | 40% | 43% | 58% | 42% | 53% | 28% |
| Boxer (D) | 49% | 45% | 53% | 58% | 49% | 48% | 41% | 52% | 45% | 45% | 68% | 52% | 51% | 10% | 81% | 43% | 10% | 53% | 85% | 7% | 84% | 41% | 50% | 46% | 23% | 65% | 34% | 58% | 42% | 52% | 50% | 32% | 49% | 43% | 64% |
| Other | 6% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 5% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 32% | 29% | 21% | 51% | 49% | 61% | 6% | 20% | 14% | 33% | 43% | 23% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 33% | 41% | 20% | 60% | 40% | 36% | 59% | 33% | 61% | 21% | 33% | 46% | 20% | 36% | 17% | 26% |
| 610 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Tea Party | College Grad | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Maldonado (R) | 41% | 44% | 38% | 33% | 41% | 40% | 50% | 38% | 44% | 42% | 22% | 47% | 37% | 73% | 16% | 44% | 71% | 37% | 14% | 73% | 12% | 46% | 39% | 44% | 64% | 27% | 52% | 34% | 44% | 43% | 38% | 57% | 42% | 42% | 27% |
| Newsom (D) | 44% | 43% | 46% | 52% | 44% | 45% | 37% | 47% | 42% | 44% | 65% | 42% | 43% | 11% | 73% | 38% | 11% | 49% | 77% | 10% | 77% | 38% | 46% | 41% | 18% | 60% | 33% | 52% | 39% | 43% | 48% | 28% | 42% | 42% | 61% |
| Other | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 17% | 16% | 11% | 5% | 15% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 15% | 8% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 32% | 29% | 21% | 51% | 49% | 61% | 6% | 20% | 14% | 33% | 43% | 23% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 33% | 41% | 20% | 60% | 40% | 36% | 59% | 33% | 61% | 21% | 33% | 46% | 20% | 36% | 17% | 26% |
| 610 Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Tea Party | College Grad | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | |
| Certain Yes | 47% | 51% | 43% | 62% | 45% | 48% | 34% | 51% | 42% | 49% | 41% | 48% | 39% | 29% | 59% | 49% | 27% | 49% | 71% | 33% | 62% | 43% | 47% | 46% | 29% | 58% | 49% | 47% | 43% | 44% | 53% | 43% | 45% | 44% | 54% |
| Certain No | 42% | 41% | 44% | 29% | 43% | 43% | 52% | 38% | 47% | 40% | 45% | 44% | 47% | 60% | 31% | 40% | 64% | 39% | 18% | 58% | 28% | 42% | 42% | 43% | 62% | 30% | 42% | 42% | 46% | 44% | 38% | 47% | 43% | 46% | 36% |
| Not Certain | 11% | 8% | 14% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 14% | 8% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 15% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners | 100% | 50% | 50% | 19% | 32% | 29% | 21% | 51% | 49% | 61% | 6% | 20% | 14% | 33% | 43% | 23% | 29% | 42% | 22% | 33% | 41% | 20% | 60% | 40% | 36% | 59% | 33% | 61% | 21% | 33% | 46% | 20% | 36% | 17% | 26% |