Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17127
 
Movement to Democrats in California Governor and US Senate Contests: Democrat Jerry Brown, running for Governor, and Democrat Barbara Boxer, seeking reelection as a U.S. Senator, today 09/22/10 finish ahead of their Republican opponents for the first time in 2 months of SurveyUSA tracking, according to new polling commissioned by KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

In the race for the open Governor's seat, Brown today edges Republican Meg Whitman 46% to 43%, a result within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error, but a result that reflects a 10-point swing to the Democrat over the past 3 weeks. Brown has gained strength and Whitman has lost strength among young and old, men and women, and in all regions of the state.

A similar swing and similar movement in the US Senate race benefits incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, who today edges Republican Carly Fiorina 49% to 43%, Boxer's first lead in 2 months of SurveyUSA polling and an 8-point swing to the Democrat over the past 3 weeks. Boxer, like Brown, has gained as Fiorina has fallen among both men and women, young and old, and throughout the state.

By contrast, two other statewide contests in California polled at the same time show little or no movement, suggesting that the changes in the governor and US Senate contest are real rather than the result of random sample variation.

For Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom today is nominally atop incumbent Republican Abel Maldonado, 44% to 41%. Compared to 3 weeks ago, Newsom is flat; Maldonado is up a nominal 2 points . In 6 weeks of SurveyUSA polling, Newsom has never polled below 43% or above 44%; Maldonado has never polled below 39% or above 42%.

Support for Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana and allow for its regulation and taxation, also remains essentially unchanged over the past 3 weeks. Today, 47% vote "Yes" on 19, 42% vote "No." Opposition to 19 is above 50% among conservatives, Republicans, tea party supporters, pro-life voters, and the oldest voters. Support is above 50% among men, younger voters, liberals, Democrats, pro-choice voters, higher-income voters, and in the Bay Area.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 California adults 09/19/10 through 09/21/10. Of them, 850 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 610 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Early voting begins in 12 days, on 10/04/10.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for California Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Meg Whitman? Democrat Jerry Brown? Or another candidate?
610 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Whitman (R)43%47%39%35%46%41%48%42%44%47%27%38%39%78%14%49%77%40%11%79%12%52%43%44%66%30%56%35%42%42%44%55%43%45%33%
Brown (D)46%44%49%54%45%46%42%48%45%44%66%49%46%12%77%38%13%50%78%11%80%37%48%44%23%61%35%54%45%46%49%32%45%44%61%
Other8%7%9%7%6%10%7%7%9%7%2%10%10%9%5%11%8%7%8%8%5%9%7%9%8%7%7%8%11%9%5%9%9%9%4%
Undecided3%2%3%4%3%3%2%3%2%2%5%3%5%2%4%2%2%3%3%1%4%2%2%3%3%2%3%3%2%3%3%4%3%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%19%32%29%21%51%49%61%6%20%14%33%43%23%29%42%22%33%41%20%60%40%36%59%33%61%21%33%46%20%36%17%26%
 
 
[Candidate names rotated]
California will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator from California were today, who would you vote for? Republican Carly Fiorina? Democrat Barbara Boxer? Or another candidate?
610 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Fiorina (R)43%49%38%32%45%43%52%40%47%49%25%36%37%84%12%47%85%37%9%89%8%47%43%44%68%28%59%34%47%40%43%58%42%53%28%
Boxer (D)49%45%53%58%49%48%41%52%45%45%68%52%51%10%81%43%10%53%85%7%84%41%50%46%23%65%34%58%42%52%50%32%49%43%64%
Other6%4%7%7%4%8%5%5%7%5%0%9%9%5%5%9%4%8%4%4%6%9%4%8%8%5%5%6%8%7%4%8%7%2%5%
Undecided2%2%2%3%2%1%1%3%1%1%7%3%2%1%3%1%1%2%2%1%2%3%2%2%1%2%1%2%2%1%2%2%2%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%19%32%29%21%51%49%61%6%20%14%33%43%23%29%42%22%33%41%20%60%40%36%59%33%61%21%33%46%20%36%17%26%
 
 
[Candidate names rotated]
California will also elect a Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieutenant Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Abel Maldonado? Democrat Gavin Newsom? Or another candidate?
610 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Maldonado (R)41%44%38%33%41%40%50%38%44%42%22%47%37%73%16%44%71%37%14%73%12%46%39%44%64%27%52%34%44%43%38%57%42%42%27%
Newsom (D)44%43%46%52%44%45%37%47%42%44%65%42%43%11%73%38%11%49%77%10%77%38%46%41%18%60%33%52%39%43%48%28%42%42%61%
Other11%11%11%11%11%13%10%11%12%12%8%8%14%12%8%17%16%11%5%15%8%11%11%12%14%10%13%10%14%11%10%13%11%15%8%
Undecided3%2%5%5%4%3%2%4%3%3%5%4%6%4%4%1%3%3%3%2%3%5%3%3%4%3%3%3%3%4%3%2%5%2%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%19%32%29%21%51%49%61%6%20%14%33%43%23%29%42%22%33%41%20%60%40%36%59%33%61%21%33%46%20%36%17%26%
 
 
California voters may also vote on several propositions. On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: At this hour, on Proposition 19, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean? }
610 Likely Voters Incl. LeanersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of Tea PartyCollege GradAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralYesNoPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Certain Yes47%51%43%62%45%48%34%51%42%49%41%48%39%29%59%49%27%49%71%33%62%43%47%46%29%58%49%47%43%44%53%43%45%44%54%
Certain No42%41%44%29%43%43%52%38%47%40%45%44%47%60%31%40%64%39%18%58%28%42%42%43%62%30%42%42%46%44%38%47%43%46%36%
Not Certain11%8%14%9%12%9%14%11%11%11%14%8%15%12%10%11%9%12%11%9%10%15%11%11%9%12%9%11%11%12%9%11%12%10%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl. Leaners100%50%50%19%32%29%21%51%49%61%6%20%14%33%43%23%29%42%22%33%41%20%60%40%36%59%33%61%21%33%46%20%36%17%26%