Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22676

1 Month to NC Presidential Primary, Trump Atop Rubio and Cruz; Clinton Well Ahead of Sanders;
General Election Head-To-Head Matchups Favor Republicans if Clinton is the Democratic Nominee:

2 weeks till voting begins in the North Carolina presidential primary and 4 weeks until votes are counted, Donald Trump remains the Republican front-runner, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. But: By the time North Carolina's primary ballots are counted 03/15/16, Trump may be the only Republican left in the race, Trump may have splintered off to launch a 3rd-party bid for the White House, or any no-scenario-too-wild permutation in between.

Today, 02/17/16, Trump, at 36%, leads Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who tie for 2nd place at 18%. John Kasich, in 5th place at 7%, and Jeb Bush, in 6th place at 5%, finish behind Ben Carson, whose campaign is sputtering but who finishes 4th at 10%. Trump's 36% in North Carolina is similar to the 35% of the vote he received in last week's New Hampshire primary, higher than the 24% Trump received in Iowa. Two thirds of the interviews for this survey were completed before George W. Bush campaigned in neighboring South Carolina for his brother Jeb; one third of the interviews were completed after Bush's appearance.

Trump's NC primary support grows from 32% among "very conservative" voters to 37% among "conservative" voters to 40% among "moderate" voters. Even though Cruz's support is disproportionately "very conservative," Trump edges Cruz in this key demographic. And: Cruz trails Trump (though Cruz edges Rubio) among North Carolina's evangelical voters. Trump leads Rubio by 17 points among "Strong Republicans." Trump leads Rubio by 10 points among "Independents who Lean Republican." Trump leads his nearest challenger by more than 2:1 among high-school educated voters and by 4:1 among voters earning less than $40,000 a year.

Trump is at 47% in Southern NC and at 28% in greater Raleigh. Cruz and Rubio are both weak in greater Greensboro. Cruz is also weak in Southern NC. Trump is at 41% among voters who have lived in NC more than 20 years.

Among Republican primary voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign, Trump leads Rubio by 15 points. Among voters who say health care is the most important issue, Trump leads Cruz by 29 points. Among voters who say that terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Rubio by 8 points.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 51% to 36%. Sanders leads by a nominal 3 points among white voters. Clinton's entire primary lead comes from African Americans, where she out-polls Sanders at this hour by 45 points. Clinton's support is disproportionately old. Sanders support is disproportionately young. Clinton runs 21 points better than Sanders among NC Democratic women.

"Very Liberal" voters back Sanders. "Liberal," "Moderate" and "Conservative" voters back Clinton. Clinton runs strongest among middle-income voters. Sanders leads Clinton among voters who have some college education but who have not gotten a 4-year college degree. But Clinton clobbers Sanders among Democrats with a high-school education.

When Hillary Clinton is paired against the leading 3 Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups, she loses. Among all NC likely general election voters, it's:

* Rubio 49%, Clinton 42%.
* Cruz 48%, Clinton 43%.
* Trump 45%, Clinton 43%.

When Bernie Sanders is paired against the leading 3 Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups, Sanders outperforms Clinton:

* Sanders 46%, Cruz 42%.
* Sanders 45%, Rubio 44%.
* Sanders 44%, Trump 44%.

President Barack Obama's approval rating at this hour, among all NC registered voters, is Minus 11. 42% of voters approve of the job Obama is doing. 53% disapprove.

Caveats: Much will happen between today and 03/15/16 that could affect this presidential primary polling. More than 2 dozen states hold primaries or caucuses between today and 03/15/16, each of which contests may give momentum to, or suck oxygen from, a given candidate. Republicans may drop out of the race. Those who drop out may throw their support behind one of the remaining candidates. The campaign may become less civil, if such a thing is possible, or perhaps each of the two parties coalesce behind a single candidate by the time Tarheel voters weigh in.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1	Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

1444 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Approve	42%	39%	44%	51%	39%	41%	38%	44%	40%	31%	78%	7%	10%	12%	36%	69%	78%	93%	23%	15%	44%	82%	82%	27%	55%	48%	39%	38%	38%	47%	47%	34%	47%	44%	40%	37%	37%	54%	35%	39%	51%	19%
Disapprove	53%	55%	51%	37%	54%	57%	59%	47%	58%	64%	15%	93%	81%	82%	52%	23%	18%	6%	75%	80%	49%	15%	10%	70%	39%	45%	57%	57%	57%	47%	47%	60%	49%	47%	57%	58%	54%	42%	59%	57%	47%	80%
Not Sure	5%	6%	5%	12%	7%	2%	3%	9%	2%	4%	7%	0%	9%	5%	12%	9%	3%	1%	2%	5%	7%	3%	8%	3%	6%	7%	5%	6%	5%	6%	7%	6%	4%	9%	3%	5%	9%	4%	6%	3%	2%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	48%	52%	19%	28%	31%	22%	47%	53%	71%	21%	14%	17%	17%	11%	11%	16%	14%	18%	22%	32%	15%	6%	45%	48%	36%	64%	18%	38%	44%	35%	36%	29%	38%	62%	36%	19%	29%	16%	41%	19%	9%

2	If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Donald Trump? Ted Cruz? Marco Rubio? Ben Carson? Jeb Bush? John Kasich? Or will you vote for some other candidate?

437 Likely Republican Primary Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Donald Trump	36%	38%	34%	32%	40%	36%	35%	37%	36%	37%	**	38%	38%	29%	49%	**	**	**	32%	37%	40%	**	**	36%	35%	27%	41%	42%	39%	32%	50%	37%	26%	37%	36%	36%	37%	28%	47%	35%	45%	37%
Ted Cruz	18%	20%	16%	18%	18%	22%	13%	18%	18%	18%	**	20%	18%	17%	13%	**	**	**	31%	14%	10%	**	**	21%	14%	19%	18%	16%	15%	21%	12%	19%	21%	13%	20%	22%	13%	20%	12%	17%	16%	13%
Marco Rubio	18%	17%	19%	10%	14%	23%	21%	13%	22%	19%	**	21%	15%	19%	8%	**	**	**	18%	23%	12%	**	**	19%	17%	19%	17%	16%	21%	17%	9%	19%	23%	16%	19%	19%	13%	21%	17%	20%	13%	29%
Ben Carson	10%	10%	10%	27%	13%	4%	4%	18%	4%	6%	**	9%	8%	13%	10%	**	**	**	8%	8%	10%	**	**	10%	10%	16%	7%	7%	10%	11%	8%	12%	9%	16%	7%	9%	16%	7%	8%	6%	9%	10%
Jeb Bush	5%	4%	7%	2%	6%	4%	7%	5%	5%	5%	**	3%	8%	5%	0%	**	**	**	3%	5%	9%	**	**	5%	5%	6%	4%	7%	4%	5%	5%	3%	8%	7%	4%	4%	7%	8%	2%	6%	8%	2%
John Kasich	7%	9%	5%	8%	3%	7%	11%	5%	8%	8%	**	3%	8%	10%	9%	**	**	**	3%	9%	9%	**	**	5%	10%	6%	7%	2%	6%	9%	5%	6%	10%	4%	8%	4%	8%	11%	6%	10%	5%	5%
Other	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	**	0%	0%	3%	3%	**	**	**	0%	1%	1%	**	**	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	2%	0%	1%	1%	0%	1%	2%	1%	0%	3%
No Preference	1%	1%	0%	1%	0%	0%	2%	0%	1%	1%	**	1%	0%	1%	0%	**	**	**	1%	1%	1%	**	**	1%	0%	0%	1%	3%	0%	0%	3%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%
Undecided	4%	2%	8%	2%	5%	4%	5%	4%	5%	5%	**	4%	4%	4%	8%	**	**	**	3%	3%	8%	**	**	2%	8%	5%	4%	7%	4%	4%	7%	4%	3%	6%	4%	4%	6%	5%	4%	4%	4%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters	100%	53%	47%	14%	27%	35%	24%	41%	59%	85%	5%	38%	33%	22%	5%	1%	0%	0%	35%	34%	24%	3%	2%	60%	35%	35%	65%	17%	34%	49%	22%	46%	33%	32%	68%	39%	20%	23%	18%	45%	16%	14%

3	If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling your Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Or Bernie Sanders?

449 Likely Democratic Primary Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Hillary Clinton	51%	48%	53%	44%	40%	60%	57%	42%	58%	44%	63%	**	**	**	**	37%	54%	63%	40%	47%	56%	58%	39%	46%	53%	53%	50%	62%	39%	57%	51%	55%	48%	46%	53%	49%	48%	55%	44%	47%	62%	**
Bernie Sanders	36%	43%	32%	43%	43%	32%	31%	43%	31%	47%	18%	**	**	**	**	55%	31%	30%	48%	28%	32%	33%	55%	36%	38%	39%	35%	28%	44%	33%	37%	32%	39%	43%	33%	38%	37%	35%	37%	39%	31%	**
No Preference	4%	5%	4%	3%	3%	3%	7%	3%	5%	3%	6%	**	**	**	**	1%	2%	3%	9%	10%	1%	1%	0%	6%	2%	2%	5%	5%	5%	3%	5%	3%	2%	0%	6%	2%	7%	3%	7%	5%	3%	**
Undecided	9%	5%	12%	9%	14%	6%	5%	12%	6%	6%	14%	**	**	**	**	7%	13%	3%	3%	15%	10%	8%	6%	12%	7%	6%	10%	5%	12%	7%	6%	10%	10%	11%	7%	11%	8%	6%	12%	8%	4%	**
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters	100%	43%	57%	16%	28%	32%	23%	44%	56%	56%	36%	1%	2%	5%	5%	14%	33%	40%	10%	10%	29%	31%	12%	32%	62%	34%	66%	13%	37%	50%	36%	33%	31%	34%	66%	30%	17%	40%	13%	38%	24%	5%

4	If the November election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?

1250 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Donald Trump (R)	45%	48%	42%	30%	46%	45%	54%	40%	49%	55%	13%	86%	77%	74%	41%	11%	10%	2%	72%	70%	37%	11%	7%	60%	31%	38%	48%	50%	47%	41%	40%	51%	42%	37%	49%	48%	45%	37%	51%	47%	36%	67%
Hillary Clinton (D)	43%	39%	46%	52%	41%	43%	37%	45%	41%	34%	74%	5%	9%	11%	31%	69%	84%	95%	19%	16%	45%	82%	89%	27%	57%	45%	41%	35%	39%	49%	46%	35%	49%	47%	40%	38%	44%	50%	36%	39%	53%	19%
Undecided	13%	13%	12%	18%	13%	12%	10%	15%	11%	11%	13%	9%	14%	15%	28%	20%	7%	3%	9%	14%	18%	6%	4%	13%	12%	17%	11%	15%	15%	10%	14%	14%	9%	16%	11%	14%	11%	13%	13%	14%	11%	13%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	28%	33%	22%	45%	55%	71%	20%	16%	16%	16%	10%	11%	15%	16%	20%	22%	32%	16%	6%	45%	49%	36%	64%	16%	38%	46%	32%	37%	31%	36%	64%	37%	17%	30%	16%	41%	19%	9%

5	What if the only two candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton?

1250 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Ted Cruz (R)	48%	52%	44%	45%	44%	48%	54%	44%	50%	56%	16%	90%	80%	76%	47%	12%	12%	3%	76%	76%	41%	8%	8%	65%	32%	43%	50%	51%	50%	44%	41%	55%	45%	44%	49%	51%	47%	39%	55%	53%	37%	69%
Hillary Clinton (D)	43%	38%	47%	42%	43%	45%	40%	43%	43%	35%	73%	4%	9%	10%	34%	69%	84%	96%	18%	15%	45%	87%	88%	26%	59%	46%	41%	35%	38%	49%	47%	35%	49%	43%	43%	39%	42%	51%	35%	38%	53%	20%
Undecided	10%	10%	10%	13%	13%	8%	7%	13%	7%	9%	10%	6%	11%	14%	19%	20%	4%	1%	6%	9%	14%	5%	4%	9%	10%	11%	9%	14%	12%	7%	12%	11%	7%	13%	8%	9%	11%	10%	10%	8%	10%	11%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	28%	33%	22%	45%	55%	71%	20%	16%	16%	16%	10%	11%	15%	16%	20%	22%	32%	16%	6%	45%	49%	36%	64%	16%	38%	46%	32%	37%	31%	36%	64%	37%	17%	30%	16%	41%	19%	9%

6	What if it were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton?

1250 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Marco Rubio (R)	49%	52%	47%	42%	48%	48%	57%	46%	51%	59%	12%	87%	88%	80%	44%	12%	14%	2%	76%	76%	44%	10%	5%	66%	34%	46%	51%	53%	51%	46%	42%	55%	48%	46%	50%	52%	47%	41%	58%	55%	40%	76%
Hillary Clinton (D)	42%	38%	46%	42%	43%	44%	38%	43%	42%	33%	75%	5%	6%	10%	37%	67%	82%	97%	18%	14%	45%	84%	91%	26%	57%	44%	41%	35%	39%	48%	47%	35%	46%	43%	42%	39%	41%	50%	37%	38%	54%	17%
Undecided	9%	11%	7%	16%	9%	8%	5%	11%	7%	8%	13%	8%	6%	10%	19%	21%	5%	1%	5%	10%	11%	6%	4%	8%	9%	10%	8%	12%	11%	6%	11%	10%	6%	11%	8%	9%	12%	9%	5%	7%	7%	7%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	28%	33%	22%	45%	55%	71%	20%	16%	16%	16%	10%	11%	15%	16%	20%	22%	32%	16%	6%	45%	49%	36%	64%	16%	38%	46%	32%	37%	31%	36%	64%	37%	17%	30%	16%	41%	19%	9%

7	Now, what if it were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders?

1250 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Donald Trump (R)	44%	50%	39%	34%	43%	45%	51%	40%	48%	53%	16%	87%	77%	66%	32%	11%	16%	5%	72%	67%	38%	11%	6%	59%	31%	40%	47%	51%	45%	41%	38%	51%	43%	37%	48%	48%	45%	34%	54%	48%	36%	65%
Bernie Sanders (D)	44%	40%	49%	53%	46%	43%	38%	49%	41%	37%	70%	6%	11%	18%	46%	74%	78%	90%	21%	19%	49%	82%	92%	28%	59%	48%	42%	35%	42%	50%	50%	38%	47%	50%	42%	40%	46%	54%	36%	40%	55%	23%
Undecided	11%	11%	12%	13%	11%	11%	11%	11%	11%	10%	14%	7%	12%	16%	22%	15%	6%	5%	6%	14%	14%	7%	2%	13%	10%	12%	11%	14%	13%	9%	12%	11%	9%	13%	10%	13%	9%	11%	10%	11%	9%	12%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	28%	33%	22%	45%	55%	71%	20%	16%	16%	16%	10%	11%	15%	16%	20%	22%	32%	16%	6%	45%	49%	36%	64%	16%	38%	46%	32%	37%	31%	36%	64%	37%	17%	30%	16%	41%	19%	9%

8	What if it were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Bernie Sanders?

1250 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Ted Cruz (R)	42%	46%	39%	35%	42%	43%	47%	39%	45%	50%	12%	86%	76%	64%	33%	4%	14%	4%	72%	68%	35%	6%	4%	60%	28%	38%	44%	46%	42%	41%	35%	47%	44%	38%	45%	44%	43%	35%	50%	49%	33%	65%
Bernie Sanders (D)	46%	42%	50%	52%	47%	46%	41%	49%	44%	39%	73%	7%	13%	22%	44%	79%	80%	89%	22%	20%	51%	87%	94%	28%	63%	51%	44%	39%	44%	51%	52%	41%	48%	50%	44%	43%	45%	55%	39%	40%	56%	24%
Undecided	11%	12%	11%	13%	11%	11%	11%	12%	11%	10%	15%	7%	11%	14%	23%	17%	6%	7%	6%	12%	13%	7%	2%	12%	10%	10%	12%	15%	14%	8%	14%	12%	8%	12%	11%	12%	12%	10%	12%	11%	11%	11%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	28%	33%	22%	45%	55%	71%	20%	16%	16%	16%	10%	11%	15%	16%	20%	22%	32%	16%	6%	45%	49%	36%	64%	16%	38%	46%	32%	37%	31%	36%	64%	37%	17%	30%	16%	41%	19%	9%

9	And what if it were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Bernie Sanders?

1250 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Marco Rubio (R)	44%	46%	41%	33%	43%	43%	53%	40%	47%	53%	9%	84%	83%	70%	28%	8%	14%	1%	71%	71%	37%	5%	5%	60%	30%	42%	45%	47%	43%	42%	34%	50%	45%	38%	47%	47%	41%	36%	54%	49%	39%	72%
Bernie Sanders (D)	45%	42%	49%	51%	46%	46%	39%	48%	43%	37%	75%	7%	10%	19%	48%	73%	80%	92%	23%	17%	51%	86%	93%	28%	61%	48%	44%	38%	44%	49%	53%	38%	47%	48%	44%	41%	46%	54%	39%	41%	51%	21%
Undecided	11%	12%	10%	16%	11%	11%	8%	13%	10%	10%	17%	9%	7%	11%	24%	19%	6%	7%	6%	12%	12%	9%	2%	12%	9%	11%	11%	15%	12%	8%	13%	11%	8%	14%	10%	12%	13%	11%	7%	10%	11%	7%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	28%	33%	22%	45%	55%	71%	20%	16%	16%	16%	10%	11%	15%	16%	20%	22%	32%	16%	6%	45%	49%	36%	64%	16%	38%	46%	32%	37%	31%	36%	64%	37%	17%	30%	16%	41%	19%	9%

Which one issue is most important to you in the 2016 election? The economy, health care, education, gay rights, immigration, the environment, voting rights, abortion, terrorism, regulating gun sales or something else?

1250 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Party Affiliation							Ideology					Evangelical		Lived in NC		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	<20 Yrs	20+ Yrs	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern	Economy	Health C	Terroris
Economy	41%	46%	37%	44%	47%	38%	37%	46%	38%	41%	43%	47%	50%	42%	29%	36%	41%	39%	47%	43%	43%	33%	21%	41%	42%	41%	42%	42%	40%	43%	44%	36%	46%	46%	38%	38%	43%	42%	45%	100%	0%	0%
Health Care	19%	16%	22%	15%	19%	20%	21%	17%	21%	19%	22%	13%	21%	10%	20%	16%	23%	31%	15%	17%	20%	24%	22%	19%	20%	18%	20%	24%	19%	17%	24%	20%	14%	17%	20%	21%	19%	18%	18%	0%	100%	0%
Education	7%	7%	8%	13%	9%	5%	5%	11%	5%	5%	15%	2%	1%	4%	11%	16%	12%	9%	3%	5%	9%	15%	4%	7%	8%	9%	6%	5%	6%	9%	6%	9%	8%	11%	5%	6%	8%	10%	5%	0%	0%	0%
Gay Rights	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	2%	0%	1%	0%	3%	0%	1%	0%	1%	7%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Immigration	8%	8%	8%	5%	7%	11%	7%	6%	10%	8%	5%	13%	10%	13%	6%	7%	4%	2%	11%	11%	6%	5%	11%	10%	7%	8%	8%	7%	10%	7%	4%	10%	9%	6%	9%	7%	8%	9%	9%	0%	0%	0%
Environment	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%	0%	0%	1%	1%	5%	9%	4%	4%	0%	1%	3%	6%	16%	1%	6%	4%	3%	1%	2%	5%	4%	2%	4%	2%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	0%	0%	0%
Voting Rights	2%	2%	3%	0%	0%	4%	4%	0%	4%	2%	4%	0%	0%	1%	2%	5%	4%	4%	0%	1%	3%	4%	4%	1%	3%	2%	2%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	0%	3%	2%	2%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Abortion	2%	2%	1%	4%	1%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	0%	4%	1%	2%	2%	0%	1%	1%	5%	1%	1%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	3%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Terrorism	9%	9%	10%	7%	8%	9%	13%	7%	11%	11%	3%	15%	10%	18%	9%	4%	6%	2%	14%	13%	8%	4%	4%	13%	6%	9%	10%	10%	10%	9%	8%	11%	9%	8%	10%	10%	10%	8%	11%	0%	0%	100%
Gun Sales	2%	3%	2%	2%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	4%	2%	0%	3%	7%	1%	3%	1%	2%	4%	1%	4%	3%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	4%	1%	2%	4%	1%	1%	3%	5%	1%	1%	2%	0%	0%	0%
Something Else	3%	4%	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	4%	2%	6%	5%	3%	2%	2%	3%	4%	3%	5%	2%	4%	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	2%	5%	0%	0%	0%
Not Sure	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	17%	28%	33%	22%	45%	55%	71%	20%	16%	16%	16%	10%	11%	15%	16%	20%	22%	32%	16%	6%	45%	49%	36%	64%	16%	38%	46%	32%	37%	31%	36%	64%	37%	17%	30%	16%	41%	19%	9%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.