Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15419
 
6 Days to VA Democratic Primary -- Volatility: 6 days till Virginia voters choose the Democratic nominee for Governor, there is unusual volatility in SurveyUSA's tracking graphs, reflected in the newest data gathered for WJLA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke. Overall, former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe remains on top today with 35%, state senator Creigh Deeds has 29%, former state delegate Brian Moran 26%. But, enough is happening below the surface to add considerable drama to Tuesday's outcome. Half of SurveyUSA likely voters say they may yet change their mind. Among voters who say their mind is made-up, Deeds leads, with McAuliffe and Moran a half-dozen points back. Where is the volatility? Men are breaking for Moran. See this tracking graph.

Women are breaking for Deeds. See this tracking graph.

Voters age 50 to 64, and moderates, are abandoning McAuliffe. See this tracking graph then this.

McAuliffe's constituents are Independent and young. In SurveyUSA's turnout model, 20% of likely Primary voters are Independent. If this group votes in smaller numbers, McAuliffe's support is overstated here. In SurveyUSA's turnout model, 19% of likely voters are age 18 to 34. If this group votes in smaller numbers, McAuliffe's support is overstated here.

There is regional torque on the data. Deeds has newly overtaken McAuliffe in Southeast VA, where 24% of votes will come from in SurveyUSA's turnout model. But Deeds has lost ground to both McAuliffe and Moran in Central VA, where 29% of votes will come from. McAuliffe and Deeds are tied in the Shenandoah. Only in the DC suburbs is the contest stable week-on-week. Moran had led, still leads, with little movement over 6 weeks. The relative turnout of young and old, black and white, rural and suburban, and the relative size of the Independent and Republican vote in the Democratic primary, will ultimately determine the nominee.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 Virginia adults 05/31/09 through 06/02/09. Of them, 1,701 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 517 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the June 9 Democratic Primary.
 
If the Democratic Primary for Virginia Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Creigh Deeds? Terry McAuliffe? Or Brian Moran?
517 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
Deeds29%30%28%25%28%30%31%27%30%32%26%**20%14%31%31%20%33%27%32%25%27%33%26%30%30%31%28%24%33%31%28%36%22%37%16%42%23%
McAuliffe35%33%35%41%33%31%36%36%33%32%38%**27%40%33%37%39%31%37%31%39%36%30%37%38%35%39%32%38%34%36%31%31%38%34%29%36%39%
Moran26%29%23%24%30%26%22%27%24%26%25%**34%21%27%24%28%27%26%30%19%25%27%25%24%25%21%30%28%24%26%24%29%22%18%43%15%25%
Other / Undecided11%8%13%10%10%12%12%10%12%11%11%**19%25%9%7%13%10%9%7%17%12%10%12%8%10%8%11%10%10%7%16%4%17%11%12%7%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%44%56%19%29%31%21%48%52%61%30%3%5%12%67%20%16%48%26%59%41%48%35%17%30%63%42%52%35%65%79%18%48%52%20%27%24%29%
 
 
Regardless of what you told us about the June 9th primary, thinking ahead now to the GENERAL election in November... If the only two names on the ballot for Governor of Virginia were Republican Bob McDonnell and ... Democrat Creigh Deeds, who would you vote for?
1701 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)44%53%37%45%47%42%43%46%42%51%17%****86%9%45%79%34%11%48%41%47%43%42%64%30%52%39%40%47%13%81%21%20%44%46%39%48%
Deeds (D)43%37%48%41%40%46%43%41%45%36%69%****7%79%36%12%52%80%43%42%41%46%43%25%59%35%50%48%41%74%10%71%73%43%43%48%38%
Undecided13%10%16%14%13%12%13%13%12%13%14%****7%11%19%9%14%8%9%17%13%11%15%11%11%12%11%13%12%13%9%8%7%13%11%13%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%24%31%27%18%55%45%74%18%4%4%33%37%28%33%44%16%56%44%49%30%21%42%50%48%47%33%67%49%44%48%52%27%26%20%28%
 
 
What if the only two names on the November ballot were ... Bob McDonnell and Democrat Terry McAuliffe?
1701 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)47%56%39%49%47%46%46%48%46%55%20%****88%11%50%81%38%16%51%44%51%44%45%66%34%56%40%42%50%14%85%27%18%47%45%40%54%
McAuliffe (D)40%34%47%36%42%43%39%39%42%33%66%****6%78%30%11%49%75%40%40%39%42%42%25%55%33%49%47%38%73%8%65%74%39%44%46%34%
Undecided12%10%14%15%11%10%15%12%12%12%14%****6%10%19%7%13%10%9%16%10%14%14%9%11%11%11%12%11%13%7%8%7%14%11%13%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%24%31%27%18%55%45%74%18%4%4%33%37%28%33%44%16%56%44%49%30%21%42%50%48%47%33%67%49%44%48%52%27%26%20%28%
 
 
What if it was Bob McDonnell against Democrat Brian Moran?
1701 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)48%55%41%48%50%46%47%49%46%54%22%****88%12%51%81%39%16%50%46%52%46%44%69%34%56%42%46%49%16%84%25%21%47%45%44%54%
Moran (D)37%32%41%34%37%40%34%36%37%31%57%****5%74%25%11%43%71%39%34%34%37%40%20%52%30%44%37%37%67%7%66%67%35%44%38%30%
Undecided15%13%17%18%12%14%19%15%16%15%21%****7%14%24%8%18%12%11%20%14%17%16%11%14%14%14%17%13%17%9%10%12%18%11%18%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%24%31%27%18%55%45%74%18%4%4%33%37%28%33%44%16%56%44%49%30%21%42%50%48%47%33%67%49%44%48%52%27%26%20%28%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.