Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #6417
Analysis: On the eve of the Special Election for Mayor of San Diego, Donna Frye tops Jerry Sanders and Steve Francis, but appears to fall short of the 50%+1 vote necessary to avoid a runoff on 11/8/05. Frye gets 45% 12 hours till polls open, Sanders gets 24%, Francis gets 23%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 804 likely city of San Diego voters, conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV. 8% would vote for some other candidate or are undecided. Compared with an identical SurveyUSA KGTV-TV poll 6 days ago, Frye has gained 1 point, Sanders has gained 5 points, Francis has lost 4 points. Sanders and Francis are effectively tied for 2nd place in the fierce battle to make the runoff. Turnout will decide which of the two advances. Frye does best with women, young voters, minorities, Democrats, and Liberals. Sanders trails Francis among younger voters, leads Francis among older voters. Supporters of Francis and Sanders disproportionately voted for Frye's opponents last November. If Frye fails to reach 50%, the 2nd place finisher will pick up most of the votes of the 3rd place finisher, and the runoff will be more closely contested. Dick Murphy, who narrowly defeated Frye's write-in candidacy last November, resigned as Mayor effective 7/15/05.
Filtering: 2,000 City of San Diego adults were interviewed 7/22/05 - 7/24/05. Of them, 1,633 were registered voters. Of them, 804 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters.
1Voters in San Diego will vote for Mayor in a special election on July 26th. If the special election for Mayor of San Diego were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Steve Francis? Donna Frye? Jerry Sanders? Or some other candidate?
804 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationEducationIdeologyVoted For San Diego Mayor 2004
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependNot SureGrad SchCollege Some ColNo ColleConservaModerateLiberalNot SureDid Not MurphyRobertsFryeDon't Re
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%20%32%27%21%71%5%15%10%36%41%22%1%29%29%29%13%28%47%23%2%4%25%20%47%3%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.