Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10395
 
Republicans Positioned to Hold Florida Statehouse: In an election for Florida Governor today, 10/10/06, Republican Charlie Crist leads Democrat Jim Davis by 13 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa, WTLV-TV Jacksonville, and WKRG-TV Pensacola. 4 weeks to the 11/7/06 general election, Crist gets 54%, up 5 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll released 9/14/06. Davis is unchanged at 41%. Crist gets 87% of Republican votes. Davis gets 75% of Democrat votes. 21% of Democrats cross over to vote for Crist. Crist's gains come from Independents, who had been tied, but now support Crist by 26 points. Crist leads by 18 points among men. Crist leads by 9 points among women; last month he trailed by 2 in this group, an 11-point gain. Crist leads by 24 points in Northeast FL. Davis leads by 20 points in Southeast FL. Crist leads by 29 points in the rest of the state. Those who approve of President George W. Bush's performance in office, support Crist 15:1. Those who disapprove of Bush support Davis 7:2. President George W. Bush's approval rating among likely voters in Florida is 45%. Incumbent Republican Governor Jeb Bush is term-limited and cannot run for re-election.
 
Democrats Positioned to Hold Nelson's U.S. Senate Seat: In an election for United States Senator from Florida today, 10/10/06, incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson defeats Republican Katherine Harris 55% to 37%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa, WTLV-TV Jacksonville, and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 9/14/06, Nelson has gained 2 points and Harris has lost 1 point. The election is in 4 weeks, on 11/7/06. Nelson is up by 9 points among men and up by 27 points among women. Republicans vote 3:1 for Harris. Democrats vote 11:1 for Nelson. Independents vote 3:2 for Nelson. Harris is supported by 75% of those who approve of President Bush's performance in office. Nelson is supported by 88% of those who disapprove of Bush. Nelson was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000. Harris, a former Florida Secretary of State, has represented Florida's 13th Congressional District since 2002.
 
Contest for Open FL CFO Seat Too-Close-To-Call: In an election in Florida for Chief Financial Officer today, 10/10/06, it's Republican Tom Lee 49%, Democrat Alex Sink 47%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa, WTLV-TV Jacksonville, and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Since an identical poll 26 days ago, Lee has lost 2 points and Sink has gained 4 points. Lee's 8-point lead has been cut to a statistically insignificant 2 points. Lee gets 88% of Republican votes. Sink gets 83% of Democrat votes. Independents favor Sink by 11 points. Last month, independents favored Lee by 9 points, a 20-point swing towards Sink. Incumbent CFO Tom Gallagher, a Republican, is not running for re-election.
 
Filtering: 900 Florida adults were interviewed 10/7/06 - 10/9/06. Of them, 768 were registered to vote. Of them, 514 were judged to be "likely voters" for the Governor and Senate contests. 495 were judged to be "likely voters" for the CFO contest. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
 
If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Charlie Crist? Democrat Jim Davis? Or some other candidate?
514 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeBush Job ApprovaRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproNE FLSE FLRest of UrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Crist (R)54%57%52%73%48%52%51%55%44%58%**87%21%59%82%46%18%53%57%65%43%53%56%56%92%21%60%37%62%57%53%56%64%58%56%48%51%
Davis (D)41%39%43%23%48%44%40%39%55%42%**9%75%33%14%49%76%38%37%31%54%40%40%40%6%72%36%57%33%37%43%38%29%40%38%49%40%
Other/Undecided5%5%5%4%4%4%8%6%1%0%**4%4%8%4%4%6%9%5%4%3%7%3%4%3%6%5%6%5%6%5%6%6%2%6%2%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%30%26%27%76%11%11%2%40%41%17%36%38%17%14%35%23%28%25%38%31%45%52%27%30%43%27%66%7%7%23%25%19%27%
 
 
Florida voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Katherine Harris? Democrat Bill Nelson? Or some other candidate?
514 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeBush Job ApprovaRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproNE FLSE FLRest of UrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Harris (R)37%42%32%43%38%35%33%37%19%54%**68%8%33%73%20%6%33%36%47%32%36%39%35%75%5%44%25%40%33%37%49%50%35%43%32%33%
Nelson (D)55%51%59%44%56%57%58%54%78%42%**24%86%52%21%71%87%57%55%45%61%56%53%56%17%88%50%66%50%60%54%43%41%54%50%62%58%
Other/Undecided8%7%9%13%7%7%9%9%3%4%**9%5%15%6%9%7%9%9%9%7%8%8%9%9%7%6%9%9%7%9%8%9%12%7%6%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%30%26%27%76%11%11%2%40%41%17%36%38%17%14%35%23%28%25%38%31%45%52%27%30%43%27%66%7%7%23%25%19%27%
 
 
Florida voters will also elect a Chief Financial Officer. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Tom Lee? Or Democrat Alex Sink?
495 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeBush Job ApprovaRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproNE FLSE FLRest of UrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Lee (R)49%53%45%56%46%45%51%55%17%46%**88%12%43%82%36%11%51%47%57%43%46%51%51%88%14%60%35%51%43%50%60%50%44%57%40%51%
Sink (D)47%46%48%42%50%49%45%41%82%47%**8%83%54%13%59%88%42%50%35%56%51%44%46%7%83%36%60%45%55%46%29%50%50%42%53%45%
Undecided4%1%7%2%4%6%4%4%0%7%**4%5%3%5%5%2%7%3%7%1%3%5%4%4%3%3%5%4%2%5%10%0%6%1%7%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%16%30%26%27%75%11%12%2%40%42%16%37%38%17%14%34%23%29%25%38%31%45%52%27%30%43%27%66%7%6%23%25%20%27%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.