Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15643
In CA-10 Special Open Primary, GOP Harmer Advances, But Democrat Opponent is Unclear: In a special primary election in California's 10th congressional district today, 08/12/2009, three Democratic candidates are bunched and have a chance to advance to the general election, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPIX-TV San Francisco.

Fourteen candidates seek to replace US Representative Ellen Tauscher, who has resigned her seat to join the executive branch. 5 Democrats, 6 Republicans, and 3 candidates from other parties are on the ballot; a write-in candidate is also running. The top finishing Democrat, the top finishing Republican, and one third-party candidate will appear on the November general election ballot.

Among the Democratic candidates, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi today is at 26%, followed by State Senator Mark DeSaulnier at 15% and State Assembly Member Joan Buchanan at 12%. Because turnout in a stand-alone special primary election is difficult to predict, each of these three Democrats has a chance to advance. Among the Republican candidates, David Harmer, a businessman and son of a former lieutenant governor, is at 18%, materially ahead of other Republicans, and the clear favorite. The third-party candidates combined get 4% of the vote; no meaningful distinction can yet be made among them.

Methodology: Candidate preference was determined in two successive questions. SurveyUSA first asked voters who they would vote for, including by name four Democrats and four Republicans SurveyUSA arbitraged to have the best chance of advancing, and a ninth choice for "some other candidate." Those choosing to vote for "some other candidate" were then read by name the remaining six candidates and given a seventh choice for selecting a write-in candidate. This report shows Democratic candidates alphabetized first, Republican candidates alphabetized second. Respondents, however, did not hear names read in this order. Respondents heard a randomized list of candidates, that was not clustered by party nor alphabetized.
Filtering: 800 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 08/10/09 and 08/11/09, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 09/01/09 primary or to have already cast a ballot. Voting has begun and ends in 20 days.
If the primary for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Democrat Joan Buchanan? Democrat Mark Desaulnier? Democrat John Garamendi? Democrat Anthony Woods? Republican Chris Bunch? Republican David Harmer? Republican Mark Loos? Republican David Peterson? Or another candidate?
552 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 Vote
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCain
Joan Buchanan (D)12%7%17%19%16%11%8%16%10%12%14%14%11%9%12%3%17%12%2%17%14%9%16%9%16%12%7%14%10%13%13%12%18%2%
Mark DeSaulnier (D)15%17%14%11%14%17%16%14%16%15%11%22%14%21%14%3%25%11%3%16%27%17%13%10%9%25%5%21%12%17%15%16%24%1%
John Garamendi (D)26%23%29%9%22%28%30%20%29%26%39%26%22%27%26%14%35%21%9%31%36%25%28%23%30%27%12%34%18%30%31%25%37%10%
Anthony Woods (D)5%6%4%10%5%4%5%6%4%4%11%2%8%6%5%1%8%2%0%5%10%5%5%4%4%7%1%6%3%6%2%5%8%0%
Chris Bunch (R)4%5%3%7%2%4%6%3%4%4%0%5%5%7%3%7%0%9%8%4%1%3%5%5%3%3%9%1%5%3%1%5%1%8%
David Harmer (R)18%21%15%12%10%19%23%11%21%18%14%8%20%21%17%38%5%19%47%10%1%21%12%25%22%8%37%9%27%13%17%17%2%43%
Mark Loos (R)2%2%1%0%3%1%2%2%1%2%0%2%2%4%1%4%1%1%4%1%1%1%3%1%3%2%4%1%2%2%4%1%0%5%
David Peterson (R)4%3%5%8%5%4%1%6%3%4%0%8%2%0%5%9%1%4%8%2%1%3%6%5%4%2%7%3%7%3%3%4%1%9%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%48%52%6%26%40%27%33%67%79%5%6%9%17%83%33%51%16%27%45%25%64%36%38%25%37%33%65%32%64%19%81%61%34%