Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14727
Coincidence? Or Correlation? Women, Whites Look Twice at 'Darkened' Madia in Minnesota's 6th District: In every election cycle, certain contests take-on disproportionate significance. The outcomes teach us much about ourselves as a society, for better and for worse. In Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, west of Minneapolis, Democrat Ashwin Madia and Republican Erik Paulsen are fighting for an open seat in the US House of Representatives. The contest is close. In three previous SurveyUSA polls, the Democrat and Republican were separated by 3 or fewer points. Then, ads appeared with photographs of Madia that may have been altered to darken his skin color. It is impossible to know whether the ads had much to do, or nothing to do, with these newest poll numbers: Madia's support among whites has dropped from 45% on 10/08/08 to 39% today. Madia's support among women has dropped from 46% on 10/08/08 to 41% today. Madia's support among Independents has dropped from 43% earlier this week to 34% today. When all of the demographic subgroups are combined, the contest, 72 hours till votes are counted, stands: Paulsen 46%, Madia 41%, Independence Party Candidate David Dillon 10%. 34% of voters today have a favorable opinion of Madia; 34% of voters today have a favorable opinion of Paulsen. But: 42% of voters now have an unfavorable opinion of Madia, almost twice the 23% Madia unfavorable number that SurveyUSA found on 08/29/08. Dillon appears to take more votes from Madia than from Paulsen. Respondents for this survey were chosen at random from Minnesota registered voter lists. Minnesota allows same-day registration, and any in Minnesota who on Election Day 2008 register and vote for the first time are undercounted here. If same-day registrants disproportionately favor one candidate, that candidate's support will be understated here, but that is just one source of possible error when polling a contest as volatile as this one now is.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Erik Paulsen? DFL candidate Ashwin Madia? of Independence Party candidate David Dillon?
647 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyOpinion Of PaulsenOpinion Of MadiaOpinion Of RamstadBush Overall AppJob Performance Top Issue For Congress
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralFavorablUnfavoraNeutralFavorablUnfavoraNeutralApproveDisapproApproveDisapproEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisGasolineEducatioImmigrat
Erik Paulsen (R)46%48%44%46%48%45%43%47%44%47%******89%9%44%85%34%6%93%4%40%1%84%40%52%33%40%91%24%30%52%44%**21%26%86%******
Ashwin Madia (DFL)41%41%41%37%40%41%45%39%42%39%******5%79%34%7%48%82%4%79%41%96%1%39%36%50%46%3%60%61%35%44%**59%65%2%******
David Dillon (IP)10%9%12%12%9%12%9%10%11%11%******4%9%18%6%15%8%1%15%15%2%14%17%9%16%12%5%12%8%11%10%**13%6%8%******
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%16%32%33%19%48%52%91%4%2%3%32%37%29%33%47%18%34%32%26%34%42%19%55%9%29%28%66%13%75%64%3%8%6%7%1%4%4%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.