Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #21197
 
After GOP Senate Debate in NC, Some Movement Away from Harris, Toward Brannon: SurveyUSA's latest exclusive poll for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina suggests last night's 04/22/14 debate among Republican US Senate candidates did little to dent the momentum of frontrunner Thom Tillis. But other shifts in candidate preference were noteworthy. SurveyUSA interviewed 3,200 North Carolina adults 04/23/14, the day after the debate; 749 of the 3,200 NC adults say they watched the debate or heard coverage of it.

Among debate watchers, a majority, 51%, say the debate had no clear winner. 21% say Thom Tillis won the debate; 15% say Greg Brannon; 7% Heather Grant; 6% Mark Harris.

Prior to the debate, 51% of debate watchers who supported a specific Republican candidate said they supported Thom Tillis. After the debate, 49%. Prior to the debate, 18% supported Greg Brannon. After the debate, 26%, up 8 percentage points. Prior to the debate, 21% of debate watchers supported Mark Harris. After the debate, 13% supported Harris, down 8 percentage points. Who finishes in 2nd place is important in the event Tillis does not reach the 40% of the vote necessary to avoid a runoff.

Cell-phone and home-home respondents included in this research, which was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode: Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
1Did you watch or hear coverage of the debate between the Republican candidates for United States Senator from North Carolina last night?
3200 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceOriginally SupportedSpecifically SupportedParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 1.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / SpecificUndecideKay HagaCompleteTillisHarrisGrantBrannonRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Yes23%26%21%39%20%17%11%30%15%23%16%44%**100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%26%19%27%27%26%23%17%23%30%17%32%29%20%21%26%29%
No75%73%78%59%79%82%87%69%84%76%82%55%**--------73%80%72%72%73%76%82%76%70%81%67%70%78%78%74%71%
Not Sure1%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%**--------1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%0%2%1%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%30%27%26%17%57%43%68%20%7%4%24%29%25%19%51%21%10%18%32%34%32%34%38%19%23%36%40%40%35%25%34%18%32%17%
 
 
2Who won the debate? Thom Tillis? Greg Brannon? Heather Grant? Mark Harris?
749 Who Watched DebateAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceOriginally SupportedSpecifically SupportedParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / SpecificUndecideKay HagaCompleteTillisHarrisGrantBrannonRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Thom Tillis21%24%17%20%19%22%31%19%24%21%18%26%15%32%20%17%12%59%9%0%1%26%22%14%24%20%15%21%23%19%22%16%28%17%23%23%20%
Greg Brannon15%20%11%16%19%12%9%17%11%15%6%30%15%21%22%13%4%8%12%18%73%15%13%18%22%10%15%9%7%24%13%22%8%11%17%16%18%
Heather Grant7%7%7%4%14%4%10%7%6%6%8%9%5%9%7%8%4%6%7%42%0%7%8%6%8%5%3%11%5%6%7%5%7%8%4%4%12%
Mark Harris6%4%9%7%4%7%8%6%7%6%10%0%17%11%6%3%2%1%45%7%0%9%7%3%8%5%6%6%5%7%5%8%5%8%8%5%4%
No Clear Winner51%45%57%53%44%56%41%50%51%52%57%35%48%27%45%58%79%26%27%33%26%43%50%58%38%59%60%53%60%44%53%49%52%55%47%52%45%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Watched Debate100%53%47%50%23%19%8%73%27%67%14%13%6%24%29%25%19%51%21%10%18%36%27%36%38%41%19%17%34%49%27%45%29%29%15%35%21%
 
 
3Before the debate, did you support one of the Republican candidates for US Senate? Were you undecided among the Republicans? Did you support Democrat Kay Hagan? Or were you completely undecided?
749 Who Watched DebateAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceOriginally SupportedSpecifically SupportedParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / SpecificUndecideKay HagaCompleteTillisHarrisGrantBrannonRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
One Of The Republican Candidates24%23%26%19%22%31%44%20%35%29%6%10%43%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%44%9%16%42%14%11%29%21%25%25%23%25%25%31%21%23%
Undecided Among The Republicans29%30%27%28%39%23%19%31%22%31%14%40%14%0%100%0%0%----43%8%30%42%26%7%24%28%29%22%35%22%26%34%28%30%
Democrat Kay Hagan25%28%22%25%18%34%27%23%32%18%42%48%14%0%0%100%0%----4%66%16%7%24%67%23%24%28%22%26%30%22%14%33%26%
Completely Undecided19%18%21%25%19%11%8%23%10%19%33%2%28%0%0%0%100%----6%16%34%8%31%15%19%26%16%27%14%23%23%17%18%18%
Not Sure2%1%3%4%1%1%1%3%1%2%5%0%0%0%0%0%0%----2%0%4%1%4%0%5%1%2%4%2%0%3%5%0%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Watched Debate100%53%47%50%23%19%8%73%27%67%14%13%6%24%29%25%19%51%21%10%18%36%27%36%38%41%19%17%34%49%27%45%29%29%15%35%21%
 
 
4Which Republican did you support before the debate? Thom Tillis? Mark Harris? Heather Grant? Greg Brannon? Jim Snyder? Edward Kryn? Alex Lee Bradshaw? Or Ted Alexander?
181 Who Watched Debate And Previously Supported a Specific RepublicanAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceOriginally SupportedSpecifically SupportedParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 7.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / SpecificUndecideKay HagaCompleteTillisHarrisGrantBrannonRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Thom Tillis51%64%38%40%63%53%62%48%56%52%**100%26%51%******100%0%0%0%54%47%41%58%41%7%57%62%41%59%44%51%41%60%47%64%
Mark Harris21%13%30%30%10%23%11%23%18%19%**0%42%21%******0%100%0%0%25%34%7%14%29%59%21%18%24%15%21%30%27%6%34%9%
Heather Grant10%6%14%17%3%5%9%12%6%11%**0%3%10%******0%0%100%0%10%14%9%9%4%34%15%7%10%11%13%5%14%13%2%11%
Greg Brannon18%17%18%13%24%20%18%17%19%18%**0%29%18%******0%0%0%100%11%5%43%18%26%0%7%13%26%16%23%14%17%22%16%16%
Other0%------------------------------------
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Watched Debate And Previously Supported a Specific Republican100%50%50%40%21%24%15%61%39%81%3%5%10%100%0%0%0%51%21%10%18%65%10%24%66%24%8%20%30%50%28%43%30%30%20%30%20%
 
 
5And now who do you support? One of the Republicans? Undecided among the Republicans? Democrat Kay Hagan? Or are you completely undecided?
749 Who Watched DebateAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceOriginally SupportedSpecifically SupportedParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / SpecificUndecideKay HagaCompleteTillisHarrisGrantBrannonRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
One Of The Republican Candidates34%39%28%27%39%37%52%31%41%35%15%39%50%79%29%12%15%84%72%42%93%50%19%29%54%24%17%31%30%37%29%33%41%34%45%34%25%
Undecided Among The Republicans20%19%22%21%24%17%10%22%15%22%18%17%15%9%53%0%14%8%12%13%7%32%8%18%29%19%6%18%25%18%25%20%15%22%15%19%22%
Democrat Kay Hagan26%29%24%25%20%36%30%24%34%23%47%26%14%10%4%80%11%8%7%45%0%11%53%21%11%30%50%27%26%27%26%27%26%28%12%30%28%
Completely Undecided17%12%23%24%13%9%7%21%8%16%18%18%21%2%14%7%52%0%9%0%0%5%18%28%5%23%25%19%18%16%16%17%18%13%23%14%24%
Not Sure2%1%4%2%3%3%1%3%2%3%1%0%0%0%1%1%8%----2%1%4%2%4%1%5%1%3%5%3%0%3%5%2%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Watched Debate100%53%47%50%23%19%8%73%27%67%14%13%6%24%29%25%19%51%21%10%18%36%27%36%38%41%19%17%34%49%27%45%29%29%15%35%21%
 
 
6Which Republican do you now support? Thom Tillis? Mark Harris? Heather Grant? Greg Brannon? Jim Snyder? Edward Kryn? Alex Lee Bradshaw? Or Ted Alexander?
253 Who Watched Debate And Now Support a Specific RepublicanAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceOriginally SupportedSpecifically SupportedParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 6.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / SpecificUndecideKay HagaCompleteTillisHarrisGrantBrannonRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Thom Tillis49%47%52%42%54%49%57%47%52%51%48%39%45%50%38%34%76%88%12%0%0%50%49%44%47%59%17%63%59%39%63%38%52%46%40%47%70%
Mark Harris13%7%22%9%10%22%14%10%19%15%17%0%16%17%13%0%0%2%81%0%0%21%6%3%12%13%17%21%15%9%9%13%16%18%10%13%5%
Heather Grant9%12%5%14%2%8%9%9%8%7%3%28%3%4%10%46%7%1%0%58%1%6%31%3%6%5%45%2%5%12%6%4%15%6%13%13%2%
Greg Brannon26%31%18%27%31%20%19%29%20%25%18%34%30%26%40%21%0%6%8%0%99%18%8%48%33%21%8%14%16%37%20%38%17%26%29%27%19%
Other3%4%3%7%3%0%0%5%0%3%14%0%7%4%0%0%17%3%0%42%0%4%6%2%3%2%13%0%6%3%3%7%0%4%8%0%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Watched Debate And Now Support a Specific Republican100%61%39%41%27%20%13%67%33%70%6%15%9%56%25%9%9%55%20%5%21%53%15%31%59%29%10%16%31%54%23%43%34%30%20%35%15%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.