|San Diego Mayor General Election Starts as Primary Ended -- Neck and Neck: In a general election for San Diego mayor today, 06/11/12, 5 months until votes are counted, Congressman Bob Filner and City Council Member Carl DeMaio finish effectively even, with Filner a nominal 3-points atop DeMaio, according to this latest exclusive 10News Poll conducted by Survey USA.
Filner leads by 13 points among the youngest, and traditionally least reliable voters; DeMaio leads by 15 among voters age 65+, traditionally the most reliable voters. The older the electorate, the better DeMaio will do. Among men, DeMaio leads by 7 points; among women, Filner leads by 13 -- a 20-point gender gap. While the race for mayor is non-partisan, 70% of Republicans vote for DeMaio, who is a Republican; 67% of Democrats vote for Filner, who is a Democrat. Independents favor Filner by 8 points. The contest at this hour is within the survey's many possible sources of error; Filner's advantage may or may not be statistically significant. SurveyUSA cautions: Reporters should emphasize how close the contest is, not the narrow advantage that one candidate may have over the other.
Those who voted for Bonnie Dumanis in the 06/05/12 primary for San Diego mayor now favor Filner by a nearly 2:1 margin. Those who voted for Nathan Fletcher are evenly divided. Those who did not vote in the primary but who say they are certain to vote in the general election narrowly favor DeMaio.
Cell phone respondents and home phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 San Diego adults 06/06/12 through 06/11/12. Of the adults, 637 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 537 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 general election. Incumbent Mayor Jerry Sanders is term-limited. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (85% of adults, 90% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (15% of adults, 10% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device.