| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17510 |
| Tiahrt's KS-04 Seat Stays With GOP: In an election for the open US House of Representatives seat in Kansas' 4th Congressional District today, 10/29/10, Republican Mike Pompeo defeats Democrat Raj Goyle 54% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KWCH-TV Wichita.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, little has changed; Pompeo is up a nominal point, Goyle down 2. In 4 SurveyUSA polls going back to mid-August, Pompeo has led by 7, 10, 13, and now by 16 points. Goyle, who initially held the nominal lead among women, has steadily lost ground and today trails by 8 points among female voters. Among voters age 50+, Goyle once led by 10, now trails by 12, a 22-point swing since August. Goyle remains ahead 4:1 among Democrats and ties Pompeo among Independents, but Pompeo's 4:1 lead among the larger number of Republicans in KS-04 seals this deal. Incumbent Republican Todd Tiahrt, first elected in 1994, did not run for re-election to the US House in order to run in the Republican primary for US Senate, where he was defeated by KS-01 Representative Jerry Moran. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from Kansas' 4th Congressional District 10/25/10 through 10/28/10. Of them, 680 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 534 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Advance voting began 10/13/10. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Pompeo? Democrat Raj Goyle? Libertarian Shawn Smith? Or Reform Party candidate Susan Ducey? |
| 534 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | |
| Mike Pompeo (R) | 54% | 58% | 50% | 52% | 59% | 52% | 53% | 57% | 53% | 56% | ** | ** | ** | 54% | 54% | 77% | 17% | 39% | 80% | 36% | 24% | 83% | 9% | 61% | 46% | 55% | 51% | 56% | 65% | 30% | 48% | 56% | 51% | 60% | 45% | 47% | 71% | 34% | 62% | 41% | 50% | 56% |
| Raj Goyle (D) | 38% | 34% | 42% | 41% | 30% | 42% | 41% | 33% | 41% | 36% | ** | ** | ** | 39% | 37% | 17% | 78% | 38% | 14% | 57% | 70% | 7% | 90% | 30% | 42% | 34% | 41% | 38% | 28% | 56% | 45% | 38% | 39% | 34% | 44% | 43% | 20% | 59% | 30% | 52% | 42% | 37% |
| Shawn Smith (L) | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Susan Ducey (RP) | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 14% | 30% | 30% | 26% | 44% | 56% | 88% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 28% | 72% | 56% | 29% | 15% | 46% | 36% | 12% | 41% | 28% | 23% | 7% | 17% | 46% | 37% | 49% | 13% | 37% | 50% | 50% | 54% | 23% | 23% | 51% | 46% | 59% | 37% | 35% | 65% |