Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17510
Tiahrt's KS-04 Seat Stays With GOP: In an election for the open US House of Representatives seat in Kansas' 4th Congressional District today, 10/29/10, Republican Mike Pompeo defeats Democrat Raj Goyle 54% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KWCH-TV Wichita.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, little has changed; Pompeo is up a nominal point, Goyle down 2. In 4 SurveyUSA polls going back to mid-August, Pompeo has led by 7, 10, 13, and now by 16 points. Goyle, who initially held the nominal lead among women, has steadily lost ground and today trails by 8 points among female voters. Among voters age 50+, Goyle once led by 10, now trails by 12, a 22-point swing since August. Goyle remains ahead 4:1 among Democrats and ties Pompeo among Independents, but Pompeo's 4:1 lead among the larger number of Republicans in KS-04 seals this deal.

Incumbent Republican Todd Tiahrt, first elected in 1994, did not run for re-election to the US House in order to run in the Republican primary for US Senate, where he was defeated by KS-01 Representative Jerry Moran.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from Kansas' 4th Congressional District 10/25/10 through 10/28/10. Of them, 680 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 534 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Advance voting began 10/13/10.
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Pompeo? Democrat Raj Goyle? Libertarian Shawn Smith? Or Reform Party candidate Susan Ducey?
534 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Mike Pompeo (R)54%58%50%52%59%52%53%57%53%56%******54%54%77%17%39%80%36%24%83%9%61%46%55%51%56%65%30%48%56%51%60%45%47%71%34%62%41%50%56%
Raj Goyle (D)38%34%42%41%30%42%41%33%41%36%******39%37%17%78%38%14%57%70%7%90%30%42%34%41%38%28%56%45%38%39%34%44%43%20%59%30%52%42%37%
Shawn Smith (L)2%3%2%2%2%3%2%2%2%2%******3%2%2%1%7%2%2%3%3%1%3%1%2%3%2%2%8%2%1%4%1%3%4%2%3%3%2%2%2%
Susan Ducey (RP)3%3%3%3%6%1%2%5%2%4%******2%4%2%2%11%3%4%2%5%0%3%4%6%3%2%3%3%4%3%3%2%5%4%3%3%3%3%4%3%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%51%49%14%30%30%26%44%56%88%5%3%5%28%72%56%29%15%46%36%12%41%28%23%7%17%46%37%49%13%37%50%50%54%23%23%51%46%59%37%35%65%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.