Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18268
 
As Voters Return Ballots, Hancock Has The Jump On Romer in Denver Mayor Runoff: Michael Hancock and Chris Romer are in a tight fight for Mayor of Denver as the 06/07/11 runoff approaches, according to a Denver Post - KUSA 9News poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Young, liberal voters focused on the city's schools propel Hancock. Older voters focused on the budget and economic redevelopment support Romer.

Democrats break 5:3 for Hancock. Independents, Moderates and Republicans split. Lower-income voters split. Hancock has a nominal advantage among white and Hispanic voters and a material advantage among more affluent and educated voters. African Americans, though comparatively few of them in Denver, vote 4:1 for Hancock.

Voters cite "economic redevelopment" as the top issue in the contest, and those focused on redevelopment back Romer 5:4. But voters cite "schools" as the second most important issue, and those focused on schools back Hancock 5:3. Hancock leads by 13 points among men and by 7 points among women. There is time, in the remaining days, for Romer to overtake, but only if there is a material, new disclosure not already baked into the campaign discourse. Romer's best shot is that young voters "stay home" and seniors "turn-out." This often happens when all votes are cast on a single "Election Day." But this runoff is conducted 100% by U.S. mail. It is unclear to what extent, in a mailed-ballot election, historical "Election Day" calculus is relevant. If Hancock loses, younger voters will have talked-the-talk to pollsters, but not walked the ballot to the mailbox, given 2 weeks to do so.

 
1If you were filling out your ballot for Denver Mayor today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Michael Hancock? Or Chris Romer?
548 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalEconomicBudgetSchoolsNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege < $50K$50K - $$75K - $> $100K
Michael Hancock49%53%46%54%53%48%42%53%46%47%74%45%**46%55%42%44%50%50%44%57%40%42%57%**41%56%49%44%53%55%55%
Chris Romer39%40%39%36%34%40%48%34%44%43%17%41%**47%35%41%50%39%39%42%35%47%45%34%**46%35%39%43%34%38%39%
Undecided11%8%15%10%14%12%10%12%11%10%9%13%**7%10%17%6%12%11%14%8%14%12%9%**13%10%12%13%12%7%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%21%28%28%23%48%52%70%10%17%4%17%57%25%7%90%17%40%37%30%20%22%2%15%21%62%42%19%15%24%
 
 
2Which one issue is most important in your vote for mayor? Economic development? Balancing the city budget? Public safety? Police use of force? Schools? Zoning? Homelessness? Or some other issue?
548 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyTop IssueEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalEconomicBudgetSchoolsNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege < $50K$50K - $$75K - $> $100K
Economic Development30%27%32%34%29%28%28%31%28%32%23%28%**34%29%25%32%29%32%35%23%100%0%0%**20%28%33%30%29%31%31%
Budget20%22%19%12%17%22%29%15%25%23%11%18%**30%17%24%37%19%31%21%15%0%100%0%**24%19%20%21%23%15%19%
Public Safety5%4%6%5%4%4%7%4%5%5%5%3%**9%5%2%8%4%4%4%4%0%0%0%**7%5%4%5%5%2%5%
Use Of Force7%9%5%5%4%10%9%5%10%4%12%12%**4%7%9%11%7%6%4%11%0%0%0%**7%11%5%8%8%6%6%
Schools22%19%25%33%26%17%14%29%16%22%22%23%**15%24%22%2%24%18%19%27%0%0%100%**25%18%23%20%14%35%25%
Zoning2%3%1%1%3%2%1%2%2%1%6%0%**3%2%1%2%2%1%1%3%0%0%0%**0%1%3%2%1%4%1%
Homelessness4%4%4%6%4%5%3%5%4%3%5%8%**3%4%4%1%4%4%4%4%0%0%0%**6%5%2%5%9%1%2%
Other9%11%8%5%11%13%7%8%10%8%16%7%**1%10%12%6%10%4%9%11%0%0%0%**11%11%9%8%10%6%10%
Not Sure1%1%1%0%2%0%2%1%1%1%1%0%**1%1%1%0%1%0%2%1%0%0%0%**1%1%1%1%2%0%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%21%28%28%23%48%52%70%10%17%4%17%57%25%7%90%17%40%37%30%20%22%2%15%21%62%42%19%15%24%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.