Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22905
 
2 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted in CA U.S. Senate Primary, Harris & Sanchez Still Favored to Advance to 11/08/16 General Election;
Clinton Well Positioned To Defeat Sanders in Primary, But Starts 10 Points Behind Obama in General Election Fire Fight With Trump:


With early primary voting underway, Democrat Kamala Harris and Democrat Loretta Sanchez appear poised to advance to a runoff, ensuring that Barbara Boxer's U.S. Senate seat continues to be held by a Democrat no matter which of these 2 candidates prevails in the 11/08/16 general election, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

Today, it's Harris 31%, Sanchez 22%. The 3 Republican candidates in the primary --- Duf Sundheim at 9%, Tom Del Beccaro at 9%, and Ron Unz at 7% --- combine to receive 25% of the primary vote. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Harris leads at 33%, followed by Sanchez at 21%, Sundheim at 11%, and Unz and Del Beccaro at 8%. There has been little movement in the contest since SurveyUSA began polling the contest in early April. Harris has never trailed. Sanchez has always run 2nd. The 3 Republicans have consistently split the conservative vote; no one of them has ever challenged Sanchez for 2nd.

In the Presidential primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 57% to 39%. The contest is unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago. Sanders continues to lead among the youngest voters. Clinton leads by 12 points among voters age 35 to 49, leads by 34 points among voters age 50 to 64, and leads by 45 points among voters age 65+. Clinton gets 57% of the primary vote in union households and gets 57% of the vote in non-union households. Clinton has majority support among every income group. Sanders leads by 2:1 among 1st-time primary voters.

* Among all California voters, 48% have an extremely negative view of Donald Trump, 30% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 13% have an extremely negative view of Sanders.
* Among women, 52% have an extremely negative view of Trump, 27% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 11% have an extremely negative view of Sanders.
* Among strong Democrats, 44% have an extremely positive view of Clinton, 24% have an extremely positive view of Sanders, 2% have an extremely positive view of Trump
* Among independents, 4% have an extremely positive view of Clinton, 20% have an extremely positive view of Sanders, 7% have an extremely positive view of Trump.
* Among strong Democrats, 84% have an extremely negative opinion of Donald Trump.
* Among independents, 41% have an extremely negative opinion of Donald Trump.
* Among strong Republicans, 39% have an extremely positive opinion of Trump, compared to 4% who have an extremely positive opinion of Clinton and 11% who have an extremely positive opinion of Sanders.
* Among independents, 7% have an extremely positive view of Trump, 41% have an extremely negative view of Trump.
* Among moderates, 10% have an extremely negative view of Sanders, 23% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 46% have an extremely negative view of Trump.

Looking ahead to the 11/08/16 general election for President, Clinton carries California today 52% to 38%, keeping the Golden State's 55 Electoral Votes pale blue. Of concern to Democrats: Clinton leads Trump today by 14 points. Barack Obama carried CA by 24 points in 2008 and by 23 points in 2012. There is a Gender Gap at this hour: Trump loses California by 3 points among men, but loses by 25 points among women. It is unclear in the 170 days that remain until the next President is chosen whether this Gender Gap will close or open wider. Of greater concern to Democrats: among those who tell SurveyUSA they are paying "a lot" of attention to the 2016 election, Clinton defeats Trump in California today by just 9 points, 50% to 41%. Trump's negatives have remained constant the past 3 times SurveyUSA has polled California; Clinton's negatives have increased during that period.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,800 state of California adults 05/19/16 through 05/22/16. Of the adults, 1,598 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 803 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,416 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,383 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. California's 55 Electoral Votes are 20% of the 270 that any candidate needs to be elected to the White House. For additional California context: John Kerry defeated George W Bush by 10 points in 2004. Al Gore defeated Bush by 12 points in 2000.
 
Primary voters will be asked to vote for a candidate for United States Senator. If you were filling out your ballot in the United States Senate primary now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Tom Del Beccaro? Republican Duf Sundheim? Republican Ron Unz? Democrat Kamala Harris? Democrat Loretta Sanchez? Or one of the other candidates?
1416 Likely And Actual Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyAttentionClinton OpinionSanders OpinionTrump OpinionUnion HHMarital StatusChild < 18Attend ChurchEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionVote in CA Primary
Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibA LotA LittleNot VeryPositiveNegativePositiveNegativePositiveNegativeYesNoSingleMarriedYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineCentral Greater Inland EBay AreaAlwaysSometime1st Time
Del Beccaro (R)12775533633391970577033618231053541366152324239671061829111178690174283298959663646418367820287346812856202393259
Sundheim (R)126656135274124616569242133195344237911235523710101214711131669221338950694776394737104370174263231033156271386318
Unz (R)102663618253821435949132202379362623832348282131871411773965581717833163326918493412464411504036664224261087133
Harris (D)43520822777121141951992362194785839234352117356614513726491301229333973727281233693836292320144245129290188145813313924185119201141294681696613228412723
Sanchez (D31617214412210449402268999161742658257851637451267432501016752232729205631824928269942111181561241881011575464122126911031111421745413672531788057
Other102544828222823505247232223270918142515125161532131369121997543333152138536462375342341233342292935198336331715601818
Undecided20983126646550301298010914523315194333925373027133551582819130647451257864779843146661086713485565726759852548899110556846401205730
Total14167216953813973862527786386628545421527411421611921681571603172352242884172401861064274495656375924324148363341017475776481899502524346175493698306426610507909314543273286908352149
Composition of Likely And Actual Primary Voters100%51%49%27%28%27%18%55%45%47%6%32%15%19%81%11%14%12%11%11%22%17%16%21%30%17%13%76%20%3%40%45%42%30%29%59%24%73%34%56%35%65%37%38%25%13%36%51%23%32%45%36%64%22%38%19%20%64%25%11%
 
If you were filling out your Democratic Primary ballot for President of the United States right now, who would you vote for in the Democratic Primary? (candidate names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Or Bernie Sanders?
803 Actual & Likely Democratic Presidential Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyAttentionClinton OpinionSanders OpinionTrump OpinionUnion HHMarital StatusChild < 18Attend ChurchEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionVote in CA Primary
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibA LotA LittleNot VeryPositiveNegativePositiveNegativePositiveNegativeYesNoSingleMarriedYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineCentral Greater Inland EBay AreaAlwaysSometime1st Time
Hillary Clinton45921224710812912696237222200451456989370115166420016847551361247932998144046171922141111132115323815428414119210465132239114125190156302612078110931511430
Bernie Sanders31418213212010060342209412319127456325143225560105591330917789255459711652711939249752231291521072001591024438118148731021221361788011351711688265
Undecided309205711712181536542611355102011210120714121012521820101652412125215127615921612661982
Total803403399232236196137469334339682771191566466430761283142306187239211170603150244801834521236568119456429240526650831330515210526539919523332630150214733213818650220497
Composition of Actual & Likely Democratic Presidential Primary Voters100%50%50%29%29%24%17%58%42%42%8%35%15%19%81%1%0%4%9%16%39%29%8%11%30%27%21%77%19%3%60%23%56%15%8%85%25%72%37%52%34%65%41%40%20%14%34%52%26%31%43%37%63%18%41%17%23%62%25%12%
 
If the November general election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
1383 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyAttentionClinton OpinionSanders OpinionTrump OpinionUnion HHMarital StatusChild < 18Attend ChurchEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionVote in CA Primary
Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibA LotA LittleNot VeryPositiveNegativePositiveNegativePositiveNegativeYesNoSingleMarriedYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineCentral Greater Inland EBay AreaAlwaysSometime1st Time
Donald Trump (R)52130521712113316410425326826814154859740613715112766817913918314517204217918324421132793893513637114533617134017317615752201253941542491493721421881187436911535
Hillary Clinton (D)716327389183221186127404312328632221041315511220215312525721459752141961425191522151666381110186581675132603662414502712701479223335916420929727743911530312517443820276
Undecided1456284554332169847576592329100911253731178162059202590401151099129101172510856595883574835235659405048707545433027783928
Total1383694689358397381247755628653824362122571057158182173156163292230214279417233187103027151553617585418417810328992462761471873502493339167490672297413594497886302534273275885355139
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%26%29%28%18%55%45%47%6%31%15%20%80%11%13%13%11%12%21%17%16%20%31%17%14%76%20%4%40%45%42%30%30%59%24%73%34%56%35%65%38%37%25%13%37%51%23%32%46%36%64%22%39%20%20%64%26%10%
 
Regardless of who you may vote for, is your opinion of Hillary Clinton ... extremely positive? Positive? Neutral? Negative? Or extremely negative?
1598 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyAttentionClinton OpinionSanders OpinionTrump OpinionUnion HHMarital StatusChild < 18Attend ChurchEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionVote in CA Primary
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibA LotA LittleNot VeryPositiveNegativePositiveNegativePositiveNegativeYesNoSingleMarriedYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineCentral Greater Inland EBay AreaAlwaysSometime1st Time
Extremely Positive227111116586549551231041062668275616161159255610943276249391693814227010252191846114975124901315610164375313065648682145329247561684217
Positive392180212103135100532391531543412876722761319636711647624511261076226410013392020444383378129615518614223714616663601331818911816618920360178649021213740
Neutral253126127957257291678611615804235170132922533171221834895636146801900117423417444191931317517010294473481126587495122131569742571398229
Negative24111612577736031150911195833420184175047393523232057942233166621102411137468135621619512076160103904427102107617010293149639640421049237
Extremely Negative473260213118113147942312422381314874913431151031157020221212815911122343736926047312526327712811933914328215830516813315762185210871462191243491331511137630410157
No Opinion122105242653243180101133226002730000151113574417651821392703415
Total159879480445646041726591668273794511256274114216521219620918233924623433048825620511193568661971466047543796336811475648485481008579585382224559755367474669612986346621306325931456187
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%29%29%26%17%57%43%46%6%32%16%19%81%10%13%12%13%11%21%15%15%21%31%16%13%71%23%5%39%45%41%30%27%60%24%73%36%54%35%65%37%38%25%15%36%49%24%31%44%38%62%22%39%19%20%58%29%12%
 
5Regardless of who you may vote for, is your opinion of Bernie Sanders ... extremely positive? Positive? Neutral? Negative? Or extremely negative?
1598 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyAttentionClinton OpinionSanders OpinionTrump OpinionUnion HHMarital StatusChild < 18Attend ChurchEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionVote in CA Primary
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibA LotA LittleNot VeryPositiveNegativePositiveNegativePositiveNegativeYesNoSingleMarriedYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineCentral Greater Inland EBay AreaAlwaysSometime1st Time
Extremely Positive2851551291129352292048010714117475320419622435964592822686184222431510013028503722863205102138941821319054381001346310110395189698949781447260
Positive3761951811111209648232144180241215057279222927485610080326611687592679582061073760652899026713420614422314715366521092058810716620317369161628422211537
Neutral44120223912613610476262179182331448270307366731724312258549116766332671253221313500109262963101662281752521261891105817419211414415519424781186997524915036
Negative27412514961718161132142145147044521922859693117372945958130152045311741690274112114701989314474194105916941971245263143682065511553501647829
Extremely Negative20111388393579487412711484930411476048451351315725348914157271523168020110961471506412754144606076257010038569845156676340311413919
No Opinion22318756412108110311313224442374131354500593186581212271091124371557361126
Total159879480445646041726591668273794511256274114216521219620918233924623433048825620511193568661971466047543796336811475648485481008579585382224559755367474669612986346621306325931456187
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%29%29%26%17%57%43%46%6%32%16%19%81%10%13%12%13%11%21%15%15%21%31%16%13%71%23%5%39%45%41%30%27%60%24%73%36%54%35%65%37%38%25%15%36%49%24%31%44%38%62%22%39%19%20%58%29%12%
 
Regardless of who you may vote for, is your opinion of Donald Trump ... extremely positive? Positive? Neutral? Negative? Or extremely negative?
1598 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyAttentionClinton OpinionSanders OpinionTrump OpinionUnion HHMarital StatusChild < 18Attend ChurchEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionVote in CA Primary
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibA LotA LittleNot VeryPositiveNegativePositiveNegativePositiveNegativeYesNoSingleMarriedYesNoNeverOccasionRegularlHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineCentral Greater Inland EBay AreaAlwaysSometime1st Time
Extremely Positive18110873384156477910398551274213564543815234556149641621272015435107181050129521176311553695421728330509539142428136231174520
Positive2551321236373754413611914166741461924679633762015594731741955353719066114255053197701639815290936425921305381109101154718259431746414
Neutral17494805047512698777046140291192322444172063143715121064715281034071004611454107631065566501860913965617599446727371193718
Negative2021011025372532412677942050381813113182427335422243170372310779138180105430202401547411466133727452437280375110680123457739421007023
Extremely Negative76134741424421917712146329832755275104137549193525851312392076195223187161540156424401834121310761170538306343248488302274155105254369199220295307454139307140175406238110
No Opinion231212695315864762160424335962429931341900815104101389712831083101357561532
Total159879480445646041726591668273794511256274114216521219620918233924623433048825620511193568661971466047543796336811475648485481008579585382224559755367474669612986346621306325931456187
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%29%29%26%17%57%43%46%6%32%16%19%81%10%13%12%13%11%21%15%15%21%31%16%13%71%23%5%39%45%41%30%27%60%24%73%36%54%35%65%37%38%25%15%36%49%24%31%44%38%62%22%39%19%20%58%29%12%