Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19135
 
2 Months From San Diego Mayor Primary, Fletcher Surges To Catch DeMaio; A Majority Supports Proposition B: In an election for Mayor of San Diego today, 04/12/12, Carl DeMaio and Nathan Fletcher finish essentially even, with Bob Filner close behind and Bonnie Dumanis farther back, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 10 weeks ago, there are significant gains for Fletcher, who two weeks ago announced he was leaving the Republican party and becoming an independent. The San Diego Mayoral contest is non-partisan, and no party identifications appear on the ballot or in SurveyUSA's polling.

Today, City Council Member DeMaio gets 28%, up 3 points from the previous poll; Fletcher, a state assemblyman, gets 26%, doubling his support from 13% in the previous poll. SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs show the poll-on-poll changes among each demographic subgroup, and show Fletcher moving out of last place in SurveyUSA's first poll in this contest, in September 2011.

Filner, who represents California's 51st Congressional District, gets 20%, down from 24%. San Diego County District Attorney Dumanis gets 13%, down a nominal point. 4% of likely voters today say they will vote for another candidate; 10% are undecided.

San Diego Proposition B, which would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most newly hired city employees, passes today with 55% of likely voters certain they will vote "yes" on the measure, 15% certain they will vote "no." 30% are not yet certain how they will vote. Opposition to ballot measures typically increases as elections near, but as of today, opposition is no higher than 22% among any group.

 
Cell phones included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 825 San Diego adults 04/09/12 through 04/12/12. Of them, 723 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 532 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/05/12 primary. If no one candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the top two finishers will advance to a 11/06/12 general election. Incumbent Mayor Jerry Sanders is term-limited. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents with a home telephone (89% of likely voters) were interviewed in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents without a home telephone (11% of likely voters) saw the questions presented visually on their smartphone or other electronic device.
 
If the primary election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for?(candidate names rotated) Carl DeMaio? Bonnie Dumanis? Bob Filner? Nathan Fletcher? Or some other candidate?
532 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeology
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberal
Carl DeMaio28%32%23%25%27%24%34%26%29%28%20%30%25%33%27%39%15%34%60%24%48%25%13%
Bonnie Dumanis13%8%18%18%8%13%16%11%15%12%6%15%16%13%13%9%16%12%9%13%10%16%10%
Bob Filner20%20%20%13%23%19%22%20%20%19%26%24%16%13%21%6%33%16%7%22%6%17%41%
Nathan Fletcher26%28%25%27%26%30%23%26%27%28%31%16%27%13%28%33%20%24%19%26%24%28%23%
Other4%4%4%2%4%5%3%4%4%3%10%2%7%0%4%5%4%4%1%4%5%2%4%
Undecided10%9%10%16%13%10%2%14%6%9%7%13%9%28%7%8%11%11%4%10%8%11%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%15%31%29%25%46%54%68%5%14%12%11%89%31%40%27%10%88%26%46%25%
 
 
On Proposition B, which would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most newly hired city employees, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
532 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeology
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberal
Yes55%62%48%58%58%50%56%58%53%57%57%50%50%72%53%65%41%65%83%52%67%58%39%
No15%16%13%8%17%15%14%14%15%15%9%14%16%14%15%9%19%16%4%16%8%15%22%
Not Certain30%22%39%34%25%35%30%28%32%28%33%36%34%15%32%26%39%20%12%32%24%27%39%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%15%31%29%25%46%54%68%5%14%12%11%89%31%40%27%10%88%26%46%25%