Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17178
In CA-18, Hispanic Voters Help Re-Elect Democrat Cardoza to 5th Term in Congress: In an election for US House of Representatives from California's 18th Congressional District today, 10/07/10, 3 days after early voting began and 25 days until votes are counted, incumbent Democrat Dennis Cardoza has a narrow advantage over well-known Republican challenger Mike Berryhill, 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish, for KFSN-TV in Fresno.

White voters break 5:4 Republican. Hispanic voters break 3:1 Democrat. The percentage of the electorate that is Hispanic, here estimated at 23%, will determine the size of Cardoza's margin. A larger Hispanic turnout will increase the Democrat's advantage. A smaller Hispanic turnout will improve the Republican's chance for a take-away. Cardoza also is backed by women, younger voters, moderates, and pro-choice voters. Among the handful of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Cardoza leads 2:1.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 18th Congressional District were interviewed in English and in Spanish by SurveyUSA 10/05/10 and 10/06/10 using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle. Of the registered voters 612 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already cast a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before election day. Early voting began 10/04/10.
1[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Berryhill? Or Democrat Dennis Cardoza?
612 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementAlready Voted?College GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeLanguage
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KEnglishSpanish
Mike Berryhill (R)44%47%41%32%42%45%54%38%49%52%30%20%54%77%14%47%77%25%11%80%7%39%22%30%45%45%44%48%40%42%63%27%54%35%45%46%45%**
Dennis Cardoza (D)50%49%51%62%50%49%41%55%46%43%61%73%35%19%81%40%20%69%83%15%91%52%64%65%49%50%48%45%55%53%32%68%38%60%48%49%49%**
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%47%53%18%27%32%23%45%55%64%6%23%7%40%46%13%42%37%16%39%27%24%11%8%92%47%53%49%25%25%50%46%49%48%40%60%97%3%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.