| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17178 |
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In CA-18, Hispanic Voters Help Re-Elect Democrat Cardoza to 5th Term in Congress:
In an election for US House of Representatives from California's 18th Congressional District today, 10/07/10, 3 days after early voting began and 25 days until votes are counted, incumbent Democrat Dennis Cardoza has a narrow advantage over well-known Republican challenger Mike Berryhill, 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish, for KFSN-TV in Fresno.
White voters break 5:4 Republican. Hispanic voters break 3:1 Democrat. The percentage of the electorate that is Hispanic, here estimated at 23%, will determine the size of Cardoza's margin. A larger Hispanic turnout will increase the Democrat's advantage. A smaller Hispanic turnout will improve the Republican's chance for a take-away. Cardoza also is backed by women, younger voters, moderates, and pro-choice voters. Among the handful of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Cardoza leads 2:1. |
| Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 18th Congressional District were interviewed in English and in Spanish by SurveyUSA 10/05/10 and 10/06/10 using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle. Of the registered voters 612 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already cast a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before election day. Early voting began 10/04/10. |
| 1 | [Candidate names rotated] If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Berryhill? Or Democrat Dennis Cardoza? |
| 612 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Already Voted? | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Language | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | English | Spanish | |
| Mike Berryhill (R) | 44% | 47% | 41% | 32% | 42% | 45% | 54% | 38% | 49% | 52% | 30% | 20% | 54% | 77% | 14% | 47% | 77% | 25% | 11% | 80% | 7% | 39% | 22% | 30% | 45% | 45% | 44% | 48% | 40% | 42% | 63% | 27% | 54% | 35% | 45% | 46% | 45% | ** |
| Dennis Cardoza (D) | 50% | 49% | 51% | 62% | 50% | 49% | 41% | 55% | 46% | 43% | 61% | 73% | 35% | 19% | 81% | 40% | 20% | 69% | 83% | 15% | 91% | 52% | 64% | 65% | 49% | 50% | 48% | 45% | 55% | 53% | 32% | 68% | 38% | 60% | 48% | 49% | 49% | ** |
| Undecided | 6% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 14% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 6% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 27% | 32% | 23% | 45% | 55% | 64% | 6% | 23% | 7% | 40% | 46% | 13% | 42% | 37% | 16% | 39% | 27% | 24% | 11% | 8% | 92% | 47% | 53% | 49% | 25% | 25% | 50% | 46% | 49% | 48% | 40% | 60% | 97% | 3% |